The Surf Report

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Quote from marketsurfer:

With this said, I remain extremely negative on Citibank C. Can't publish reasoning here, but suffice to say, I give the bank less than 2 years.
I hope not, if it does happen that's pretty sad.

While we are market speculators, and frankly it doesn't matter whether we trade the US financial markets, bonds, currencies or natural resources, a lot of middle class people who actually rely on these institutions for their lively-hood will be put out of a job ... and in many cases lose what they have spent the last 5 or 10 years of their life working for.
 
The long-term problem right now is we outsourced the USEFUL jobs that create REAL economic growth. By useful I mean technology/manufacturing/engineering jobs. We are left with service sector garbage, and losing many of these as well. Too many finance/legal/marketing etc jobs that lack any kind of substance. At least we still have defense spending/research, which may not even last much longer...
 
Quote from trader_arb:

The long-term problem right now is we outsourced the USEFUL jobs that create REAL economic growth. By useful I mean technology/manufacturing/engineering jobs. We are left with service sector garbage, and losing many of these as well. Too many finance/legal/marketing etc jobs that lack any kind of substance. At least we still have defense spending/research, which may not even last much longer...

Wow, I've been waiting for a while for someone to bring that up . . . well stated.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

70 billion of AIG's bailout money is already in circulation.


The AIG funds are viewed as a loan with AIG selling assets to repay. Totally different than the non recourse grant soon to hit.

surf
 
Quote from trader_arb:

The long-term problem right now is we outsourced the USEFUL jobs that create REAL economic growth. By useful I mean technology/manufacturing/engineering jobs. We are left with service sector garbage, and losing many of these as well. Too many finance/legal/marketing etc jobs that lack any kind of substance. At least we still have defense spending/research, which may not even last much longer...


I disagree. Although most would disagree with me.

It depends on your definition of real economic growth and inherent value. You need to be specific--what exactly are tech, manu, engineering jobs that add value? No offense meant, but this sounds like old school thinking. what's the difference of having a person turn a screw in detroit or having a robot do it? that person can now work in the service sector-- makes zero difference in the macro sense.

surf
 
Quote from trader_arb:

Too many finance/legal/marketing etc jobs that lack any kind of substance. At least we still have defense spending/research, which may not even last much longer...
re:"lack any kind of substance"
I wouldn't go that far. More appropriate and closer to the truth:

these jobs are experiencing rewards (salary, hourly rates, etc) NOT COMMESURATE with the real value to the economy. And this also most certainly applies to defense sector jobs.

Sarbox is much to blame here....nothing gets done in this country anymore without consulting and getting approval of the compliance officer. This is KILLING our productivity and competitivenesss.
 
Sarbox is much to blame here....nothing gets done in this country anymore without consulting and getting approval of the compliance officer. This is KILLING our productivity and competitivenesss.

as i work within a sarbox framework, i would disagree with that statement. I would suggest that many companies have become so large as to become difficult to manage. I would also suggest that that current management style of many corporations today is of optimization and efficiency, just like the airlines have managed flight schedules to maximize seat capacity. Within this tight framework, there is little tolerance for mistakes or creativity. so between overly complex systems, and optimization/efficiency, any disruption is difficult to overcome.

A friend of mine works at a triple A rated company in the US, and he tells me stories of financial engineering which is just above third world quality.

too many compensation plans are based upon short term goals, which in turn makes managers short term damage control tactical managers, and not long term or cyclical managers.

I agree with the statement that people are not getting paid based upon their true contribution, but the pay is being concentrated at the top, which leads to shortcuts and obsequious behavior to get to the big bucks.

My company, an NYSE listing company, in our segment, has an accounting process to close the books in 5 days.. . it works fine, until year end. . then the rush is on to make all final closing entries in 5 days, upon which the compensation system is based. This year, after the books are closed, the compensation calculations are run, and the senior management compensation results are requesting exceptions to the year end accounting numbers, for journal entries that did not get booked in time for year end. . .

senior management wants it both ways, and not willing to make smart decisions, but wanting to get all the rewards possible. . .

senior management is getting dumber and dumber. . .

sportsguy
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Thanks!

I believe it is critical to keep in mind that NONE of the governments rescue plan cash has actually hit the market yet.

I overly and wrongly anticipated the impact of the "suggestion" of the influx of capital on the marketplace rather than waiting for the cash to hit the market. It seems that this was one time where the actual occurance will have more of an effect than the rumour or preparations for the event. I am anticipating uplifting news to flow from the G7 meeting this weekend in DC which should in turn, combined with the imminent inflows, create a rally.

With this said, I remain extremely negative on Citibank C. Can't publish reasoning here, but suffice to say, I give the bank less than 2 years.

regards,

surf


As expected the rally has ensued. way bigger than even I expected... this intervention should result in the greatest bull market of all time. Gold to sub 600 by 4.1.2009.

DJIA hits all time highs by 4.1.2009


long and strong


surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

As expected the rally has ensued. way bigger than even I expected... this intervention should result in the greatest bull market of all time. Gold to sub 600 by 4.1.2009.

DJIA hits all time highs by 4.1.2009


long and strong


surf

I got in on a nice position short Gold early yesterday morning but will be traveling for the next couple days and unable to monitor it. I hold you responsible Surf . . . just kidding. :D
 
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