The Surf Report

[Vienna]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

IMO, you've got in backwards T-Dog.

The less skilled/edgeless trader SHOULD go for home runs. The same way I'd look for the chance to go all in against a more formidable poker opponent. A mediocre quarterback has a better chance of hitting a bomb or two than grinding it out.

IMO many traders, "pro's" in fact, lose their money by not optimizing the few good calls that most EVERYONE is capable of making.

Yes I believe in random results ect. but I'm also cognizant that opportunities aren't just dealt out of a vacuum.....

But that only makes sense if you have tight stops. If you don't, betting on finding the whale will wipe you out, and you end up like another famous whaler, the captain of the Pequot...

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Vienna:

But that only makes sense if you have tight stops. If you don't, betting on finding the whale will wipe you out, and you end up like another famous whaler, the captain of the Pequot...

is that not the essex?

tight stops is death by a million cuts.

surf

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from marketsurfer:

is that not the essex?

tight stops is death by a million cuts.

surf

the way you trade, well, yeah.

JJ

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

. . . tight stops is death by a million cuts.

surf

Considering and including the current YM trade, you are now negative for the year in the eMini DOW. (verified by Pekelo and the thread itself)
Please explain to this forum your uncanny abilities of market predictions.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

IMO, you've got in backwards T-Dog.

The less skilled/edgeless trader SHOULD go for home runs. The same way I'd look for the chance to go all in against a more formidable poker opponent. A mediocre quarterback has a better chance of hitting a bomb or two than grinding it out.

IMO many traders, "pro's" in fact, lose their money by not optimizing the few good calls that most EVERYONE is capable of making.

Yes I believe in random results ect. but I'm also cognizant that opportunities aren't just dealt out of a vacuum.....

Quote from Vienna:

But that only makes sense if you have tight stops. If you don't, betting on finding the whale will wipe you out, and you end up like another famous whaler...

Pabst, I agree with Vienna. (Although "tight" is a relative term.)

Further, I was not suggested that surfer resort to scalping (grinding). As I had written in an earlier post in this thread, the solution to one extreme is not necessarily the other extreme. Surfer apparently doesn't see a middle ground between swinging for the fences with virtually no stops and scalping with miniscule stops.

Surfer lets his trades go against him in a fairly big way. As you implicitly described him (and as he has described himself), the "less skilled/edgeless trader " should probably not be absorbing large risk per trade. Poor timing + big risk = ?

Of course, surfer talks about "proper trade sizing," and that's all well and good. I'm just looking at the size of his losses in relation to the size of his gains. That tells me what I need to know. Picture a blindfolded guy running with wild abandon in a room full of sharp-edged furniture.

 

[Vienna]

Quote from marketsurfer:

is that not the essex?

tight stops is death by a million cuts.

surf

Yes, my mistake... the Essex.

I meant resonable stops. Guys like Taleb trade like this. They take many small losses, and then make a killing when the black swan comes.
But if you take many big losses, then the black swan does you no good, even if he finally does appear....

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Surfer lets his trades go against him in a fairly big way. As you implicitly described him (and as he has described himself), the "less skilled/edgeless trader " should probably not be absorbing large risk per trade. Poor timing + big risk = ?

Nice to see how we're all on the same page here and getting along quite nicely, I'm sure Magna will be pleased.

JJ

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from marketsurfer:

...tight stops is death by a million cuts...

Is it really that black and white for you? Either a million cuts, or just one or two across the carotids? No middle ground?

 

[overtooled]

for god's sake will you annoying little sh*ts let go of surf's pant leg

give em a good kick surf

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from JimmyJam:

Nice to see how we're all on the same page here and getting along quite nicely, I'm sure Magna will be pleased.

JJ

I think now would be a good time for tea and crumpets. Anyone?