The Surf Report

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Once again, the intraday volatility is substantial in the DJIA . however, as expected, closing slightly down--this action is indicitive of a medium to long term top. continuing to hold, anticipating a substantial substantial decline anytime.

staying short.


surf
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

NO NO NO!

You're talking to Surf as if he actually wanted to make money trading derivatives.

That's not what he's doing here.

What he is doing, I'm not sure, but it ain't trading to make a buck.

JJ
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im certainly not daytrading here. however, my intentions are in the best capitalistic traditions. i anticipate a very large point gain on this trade, and im in it to win big.

regards,surf
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Here is the daily chart in the last month. 3 times the Dow bounced back heavily from the lower BB. I think each time you were short and gave back 150+ profits...
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thanks for the chart, pekelo.

when it snaps its gonna be severe.

regards,

surf
 
Surf, I am of the same view but I use EEM puts (I think that is where the greatest opportunity for gains resides in a decline) and hedge using the futures (YM, ES, NW depending) at key levels. I don't catch every dip by any means but take 10-20 ES here and there or 100 on the YM here and there and it offsets the cost of my puts. I have used this strategy to caputre large moves that need time to play out with great success over the years and one of two of these trades working can make for a great year.
Regards,
Mvic
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

im certainly not daytrading here. however, my intentions are in the best capitalistic traditions. i anticipate a very large point gain on this trade, and im in it to win big.

regards,surf
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OK fine.

But good luck with that using this style of trading.

Intra-day traders just go to work everyday, that's all (LMAO at that one).

JJ

edit: Looks like anotha hunned point move against your position.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

im certainly not daytrading here. however, my intentions are in the best capitalistic traditions. i anticipate a very large point gain on this trade, and im in it to win big.

regards,surf
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Mr. surfer, what is your time frame and at what point will you acknowledge that your shorts are not doing well ? I only ask w the utmost respect. Looks like the S&P has rallied 30 pts since you proclaimed you "anticipate a very large point decline" and that you are substantially short.
 
once again, morning upward motion is met by heavy selling pressure in the DJIA as anticipated. continuing to hold shorts as the slide to the drop continues.

best wishes,

surf


ps. looking at 90 days from entry as outside boundary for anticipated dramatic drop, as stated earlier. holding DJIA shorts.
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

OK fine.

But good luck with that using this style of trading.

Intra-day traders just go to work everyday, that's all (LMAO at that one).

JJ

edit: Looks like anotha hunned point move against your position.
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hey JJ,

good points.:D

holding here with additional profits thus far, as the slide continues into the close.....

still on the beach surfer

surf:)
 
i got a feeling marketsurfer going to do well here. just a hunch...

Quote from marketsurfer:

hey JJ,

good points.:D

holding here with additional profits thus far, as the slide continues into the close.....

still on the beach surfer

surf:)
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some marketsurfer musings while shark fishing near shore SC USA



The July 2007 issue of National Geographic contains an extremely interesting article by Peter Miller on "Swarm Theory". Swarm Theory attempts to quantify how individual actions of unintelligent individuals develop into the complex behavior of a group. The way ants or bee colonies work together for the good of the group is discussed in detail then how this can be applied to complex human/business systems. For instance, Marco Dorigo, a computer scientist at Universite' Libre in Brussels modeled ant behavior to solve logistical truck routing problems. One company specializing in artificial intelligence applies algorithms gleaned from the foraging activity of Argentinean Ants to manage industrial plant applications.

Upon reading this piece, I immediately considered how these ideas can be applied to the markets, stock indexes in particular. The base factors appear to be similar regarding the unintelligent individual player/relative small group. (unintelligent in regard to the unknown future price movement). Complex group behavior resulting in the changing cyclical nature of indexes, etc. This is definitely something worthy of additional study.

Steve Bal adds:
I have looked at this in the past reviewing such theories as flocking and how ants lay trails for other ants to follow (like the ants found in trees that seem to follow a perfect zigzag pattern). However, most animals have a rapid maturing process unlike humans and thus their environment has a smaller role in their behavior. It would appear that ants and bees act according to pre-programmed genes and evolve over time as laid out by Darwin.

One area of interest to me has been how birds act as a group with group coherency and no need for a formal leader of the pack. I would think this may be similar in the markets as the smart money is the one that makes the most noise and pilots the crowd in its direction of change.

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=1847
 
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