The Surf Report

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Quote from marketsurfer:

i entered full size on entry one and am fully committed-- stops @ 13333


best,

surfer


:)
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That's an interesting number, I won't ask why.
***
One thing you have shown to the board is the concept of non-linear trading. That is to say, most traders think of the price action of the individual security they are trading as what defines its trend.

That ain't necessarily so.

FTR, the trend of the YM remains up at the moment.

Good trading,

JJ
 
holding short eur/usd.

holding YM shorts here--- 13333 not broken by 3 minute stop parameter as of right now. staying short, with finger on trigger.

maintaining all positions at this time...

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

holding short eur/usd.

holding YM shorts here--- 13333 not broken by 3 minute stop parameter as of right now. staying short, with finger on trigger.

maintaining all positions at this time...

surf
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You got in too early... if anything you want to be dipping short at 13333 not getting stopped out... The best short entry would be at 13430. If your stopped out but still have a bearish bias I suggest getting back in at that area.
 
our stop parameters kept the YM short position open despite the brief spike off the NFP figures--- staying short at this time--fully expecting a down close.

eur/usd short suffering minor adverse acceleration from NFP figures back toward breakeven level--maintaining short.

have a great day!

surf:)
 
Re: Shorting Tops etc..

Quote from marketsurfer:

our stop parameters kept the YM short position open despite the brief spike off the NFP figures--- staying short at this time--fully expecting a down close.

surf:)
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It took me a while to figure out why Marketsurfer trades as he does: shorting new highs in an obvious Bull etc...(not that in an individual case the trade couldn't work).
What puzzled me was the constant insistence that there is no such thing as a trend, even while getting clobbered by such a trend again and again.
I know that Marketsurfer thinks that Victor Niederhoffer is pretty much the best, and also that he seems to model his approach on VN.

Then I read a quote by George Soros on Niederhoffer, and it all became clear:
"There was a flaw in his (Niederhoffer's) approach," Soros, 75, wrote in Soros and Soros (John Wiley& Sons, 1995). "It is valid only in a trendless market". "He made good money while the markets were sloshing around aimlessly", Soros wrote about the episode. " Then he started losing money, and he had the integrity to close the account." Soros stopped using Niederhoffer to manage money in 1995.

So, of course, if you have a method that works (only) in trendless markets, then you might be biased to believe that there are no trends, and selling new tops and buying new bottoms can make sense within that framework. Of course, if you did that in a real situation like VN with Soros, you would be shut down pretty soon.
 
Quote from Vienna:

Re: Shorting Tops etc..



It took me a while to figure out why Marketsurfer trades as he does: shorting new highs in an obvious Bull etc...(not that in an individual case the trade couldn't work).
What puzzled me was the constant insistence that there is no such thing as a trend, even while getting clobbered by such a trend again and again.
I know that Marketsurfer thinks that Victor Niederhoffer is pretty much the best, and also that he seems to model his approach on VN.

Then I read a quote by George Soros on Niederhoffer, and it all became clear:
"There was a flaw in his (Niederhoffer's) approach," Soros, 75, wrote in Soros and Soros (John Wiley& Sons, 1995). "It is valid only in a trendless market". "He made good money while the markets were sloshing around aimlessly", Soros wrote about the episode. " Then he started losing money, and he had the integrity to close the account." Soros stopped using Niederhoffer to manage money in 1995.

So, of course, if you have a method that works (only) in trendless markets, then you might be biased to believe that there are no trends, and selling new tops and buying new bottoms can make sense within that framework. Of course, if you did that in a real situation like VN with Soros, you would be shut down pretty soon.
More...


it needs to be pointed out that niederhoffer was the only trader to ever leave soros while still profitable--he was not "shut down" as you implicate.

my present method often takes several entries to nail the big turns, but as witnessed in feb 2007, the rewards can be substantial.

surf
 
the down move did not take place today as expected. however, the shorts in the DJIA are still open as price did not break the stop level by the time parameters. holding shorts at this time.

the eur/usd short continues to flirt back and forth with breakeven, holding here.

regards,

surf
 
Quote from apex82:

You got in too early... if anything you want to be dipping short at 13333 not getting stopped out... The best short entry would be at 13430. If your stopped out but still have a bearish bias I suggest getting back in at that area.
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thanks, apex. however, maintaining bearish bias and shorts at this time.

regards, surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=1386


<b>Nassim Taleb-- The BlackSwan book launch

by marketsurfer&annaland</b>

Last night we attended Nassim Taleb's new book launch, The Black Swan — The Impact of the Highly Improbable on Madison Ave,NYC . The event was well attended with approximately 120 people. The audience included several heavyweight quantitative people such as Dr. Emanuel Derman. It was well-orchestrated compared to the madhouse of George Soros's signing event, which I attended earlier in the year. Little touches like serving Black Swan wines as a marketing tie-in added to the friendly, collegial ambiance. The jovial crowd appeared to consist of academics, young suits, and book types.

An animated and vocal Nassim took the stage, first stressing that his new book was not about finance, then admitting that he does not like the subject and finds it exceedingly boring. In true Nassim fashion he began by ripping on history books, saying most historians are full of beans and not to take any history book seriously. He added that historians and stock analysts are similar. During his speech, he raised the following question, "How many traders are in the room?" Sitting near the back of the room, we counted perhaps eight hands — I was expecting a much larger representation of the trading community.

Nassim then jumped into the issue of retrospective distortion — using the recent Virginia Tech shootings as fodder for his idea. By retrospective distortion he meant the way humans tend to evaluate and make sense of matters after the fact, constructing an orderly event in hindsight. The more significant things he talked about included his belief that experts do not exist in complex domains, that using cumulative advantage loops and preferential advantage concepts is not a proper way to conceptualize black swans and, perhaps his most interesting statement, that all design has its genesis in randomness — the implications of this idea are profound. He elaborated a little on several topics, then opened the floor up for questions.

Not surprisingly, the first question focused on Malcolm Gladwell's New Yorker article . He was visibly annoyed and without delay stated that the article was an example of a "false narrative" — another concept he talks about in the book. He said that the article worked wonders for selling his book, but for the wrong reasons. However, he made it clear that the right reason for buying his book was boring. Nassim then quickly moved on to the next question.

He fielded questions about the central aspect of his new book, claiming that the Normal and Gaussian distributions are frauds, primarily because probabilities drop when moving away from the mean, while with Mandelbrot's variations this does not occur. He then was asked several specific financial questions, which he politely dodged and commented that he does not know what the next Black Swan is or how to predict it. Time was up and the book signing began — several of the audience members carried a dozen or more books for his autograph. Not sure if they were for resale on eBay, but I'll monitor for a bit to see if they end up there.

Nassim was very energetic and his occasional irritation was short-lived. He dropped the F bomb on several occasions, quickly changing to proper words with a chuckle — not sure if this was done purely for effect or if it is his natural vocabulary. His lively delivery and friendly demeanor made it an entertaining and unique evening. My initial impressions of the book, after a cursory read, are that it appears interesting, well documented and entertaining. I'm looking forward to further reading this week.

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/
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Strange days indeed, the black swan meme spreads.........

Nassim Taleb will be on Comedy Central, Tuesday 11 on Colbert Report.

Enjoy,

surf
 
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