The Surf Report
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
- Status
You've asked a question which, no doubt, is on everyone's mind.
This method appears to be designed to catch outlier moves of substantial duration and points.
Lately the market has not been very volatile, they've shown strong momentum (all upside), so he keeps getting stopped-out of tentative trade entries ... this must be eroding his profit base, no doubt.
All-in-all, I don't think Surf trades for money, he trades for other purposes than the obvious bottom-line (so do lots of other people, BTW).
JJ
this log goes back to 2002. in 2005, i was strictly trading the channel system in the DJIA. lost money in 2006, when tweaking this method, and am up a little so far this year due to a big score in feb. this is strictly index trading, not the other markets.
regards,
surf
yes, that's a well known fact. VN was ranked number one in the world in years prior to 1997. he took extraordinary risk in thailand which obviously did not work out. however, since 1997 he has climbed back to top world wide ranking for money managers and presently manages 300 million plus with stellar annual performance. here's an article, if your interested in learning more:
Victor Niederhoffer: The Biggest Stock Market Cons
<i> This week, I am truly honored to be joined by Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner. Victor is a legendary speculator, market philosopher, gamesman, and racquet sport champion. He worked directly with George Soros and was ranked the number one hedge fund manager in the world for several years then disaster struck. In 1997, an overly expansive speculation in the Thai stock market caused spectacular losses in his accounts. Due to extensive leverage, his losses were magnified over and above his 50% loss in Thailand, and spillover effects from that debacle caused his fund to be well over its head in U.S. equities when they closed down limit on Oct. 27,1997.
In short, a combined sequence of events â huge declines in individual Thai stocks,losses in the Thai currency and the closing of the U.S. stock market and extensive up moves in the prices of options the fund was short; all came together in one day, in a short and disastrous coincidence. The loss, over and above profits made and withdrawals from the fund, totaled approximately $50 million. In addition to the losses in the funds, Victor had invested heavily in his own trading. To cover his debts and living expenses, after much soul-searching, he took out a mortgage on his house at an interest rate of 18% a year and sold his liquid assets, including his entire silver collection and his holdings in private and publicly held companies. He started again from the bottom. He scraped together a small trading stake and started plying his trade, slowly building back what was lost, determined never ever to allow the same mistake to happen twice. In a true example of the human spirit and his will to be a champion again, he is back in the game at a top level.
Since inception in February 2002, Vicâs current fund, âMatador, â had a three-year annualized return of 31%, placing it among the top five offshore funds. In 2004, Matador had a 50% return, the best of all offshore funds with more than $45 million in assets, according to the TASS rankings. Hereâs a gentlemen who came from materially meager beginnings, rose to the top academically, athletically, and financially---lost it all, and is now back on top. He is truly someone we can all learn valuable market and life lessons from, since he has been and succeeded on the front lines in all capacities and levels .........</i>
click here for the rest:http://www.dailyspeculations.com/vic/goodboy_interview.html
surf
Jeez, talk about Black Swans ...
The guy blew his account and ruined the lives of family and friends, the only reason he got back on the horse was because of his daughters and the fact that he had to take care of his family and "move on".
Yes, it makes for truly fascinating reading on the train, and the guy has heroic qualities about him ... but in no way do I think he or his trading style should be emulated.
JJ
What a load of self serving crap. It is however in line with most of the other posts.
The gentleman became complacent and failed to manage risk in a professional manner. As a result he lost other people's money. The only thing that saved him is the ignorance and greed of those who were naive enough to take a chance on him again!
Those of us who have actual experience in this business view him as a fringe element, incompetent and certainly inconsistent at best. He is a train wreck waiting to happen.
One can see why you might admire him MarketSurfer.
With a little perseverance and luck, perhaps one day you will have the opportunity to lose other people's money as well? You are certainly on the right track so far.
Best to All your Aliases.
Steve
The gentleman became complacent and failed to manage risk in a professional manner. As a result he lost other people's money. The only thing that saved him is the ignorance and greed of those who were naive enough to take a chance on him again!
Those of us who have actual experience in this business view him as a fringe element, incompetent and certainly inconsistent at best. He is a train wreck waiting to happen.
One can see why you might admire him MarketSurfer.
With a little perseverance and luck, perhaps one day you will have the opportunity to lose other people's money as well? You are certainly on the right track so far.
Best to All your Aliases.
Steve
i totally disagree with you. you are speaking from a position of ignorance of the situation basing your conclusions on inuendo and hearsay.
name one other trader who was ranked #1 or close, blew up, then came back bigger and better than ever. I bet you can't do it.
im happy to discuss trading, traders,my ability, whatever with you, but.....
lay off on the personal attacks, its really poor form.
best wishes to you and allmighty,
surf
Unlike yourself, my comments come from a professional standpoint. It is rather simple (much like your understanding).
The reason clients trust a money manager with their savings, is that they are led to believe that the money manager can do two things, obtain alpha, and manage risk, better than they can. Unfortunately, Mr. Neidermeyer became complacent and did not do a professional job of managing risk. As a result he lost a lot of money needlessly. Unconcerned, he did the smart thing, which was to hire a young lady to rebuild his brand. She did a good job.
It doesn't change history.
Fortunately he was lucky enough to have a couple of good years. For me and many others this means very little. The idea that he has "bounced back" is a silly notion characteristic of amateurs. I wouldn't let the man wash my car.
Those whose money he lost with his complacent approach, will probably not let him have a second chance.
Steve
The reason clients trust a money manager with their savings, is that they are led to believe that the money manager can do two things, obtain alpha, and manage risk, better than they can. Unfortunately, Mr. Neidermeyer became complacent and did not do a professional job of managing risk. As a result he lost a lot of money needlessly. Unconcerned, he did the smart thing, which was to hire a young lady to rebuild his brand. She did a good job.
It doesn't change history.
Fortunately he was lucky enough to have a couple of good years. For me and many others this means very little. The idea that he has "bounced back" is a silly notion characteristic of amateurs. I wouldn't let the man wash my car.
Those whose money he lost with his complacent approach, will probably not let him have a second chance.
Steve
By the way, my comments are entirely professional.
I consider the man incompetent. As regards money management, you and he are on the same level. If at some point down the line, perhaps 5 to 7 years from now, Mr. Neidermeyer displays a consistent track record through a variety of markets, I may change my opinon.
Steve
I consider the man incompetent. As regards money management, you and he are on the same level. If at some point down the line, perhaps 5 to 7 years from now, Mr. Neidermeyer displays a consistent track record through a variety of markets, I may change my opinon.
Steve
- Status