This depends on whose perspective you are looking at the situation from and how you define a complex situation. I think Taleb was talking about the grand scheme of things and relating it to specific situations, like trading, everyday life etc. If a complex situation is defined by the market, I can find a human who is an expert in the markets. This is possible and probable, but the reason hes an expert is because of his knowledge relative to my (lack of) knowledge. Therefore, in the grand scheme of things, hes only an expert relative to me. Open the door the rest of the world/universe and hes no longer a true expert of complex situations.
The Surf Report
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This depends on whose perspective you are looking at the situation from and how you define a complex situation. I think Taleb was talking about the grand scheme of things and relating it to specific situations, like trading, everyday life etc. If a complex situation is defined by the market, I can find a human who is an expert in the markets. This is possible and probable, but the reason hes an expert is because of his knowledge relative to my (lack of) knowledge. Therefore, in the grand scheme of things, hes only an expert relative to me. Open the door the rest of the world/universe and hes no longer a true expert of complex situations.
Quote from marketsurfer:
hey there prof, welcome back. made some nice $$ short today in the YM. please keep us posted then the oscillation occurs confirming a top--prior to it happening. lets see what you can do, right here on the surf report.
regards,
ps. no comments regarding your neoluddite statistician statement.
OK Surf, so everyone who talks reason, common sense and gives real world examples of their activties which are provable 7 or 8 times out of 10 is a ludditte?
Luddite Central
Well I guess professors who spout unprovable nonesense and dwell in the realm of fantasy where you never actually have to prove anything are what, futurists?
Not to sure I want that future.
Regards,
JJ
It was a smart point, but that doesn't make it valid.
I would strongly suggest that they are absolute experts in any given field that you would care to suggest, I have, in fact, been blessed to meet at least one of them.
These comments make for good bar room discussion, but they don't really have any relevance to the practical situations of real world living.
Jimmy Jam
The world needs statisticians to test all the random theories that exist. Each person has numerous theories, some of which is nonsense. How do we decipher crap from meaning? Statistics. statisticians are able to test some theories and prove what is significant. Hence, your above statement should read, the world needs theorists to keep the world off balance so the logical [aka statisticians] can right the ship.
thanks!
we'll let him decide which to do Quote from marketsurfer:
hey there prof, welcome back. made some nice $$ short today in the YM. please keep us posted then the oscillation occurs confirming a top--prior to it happening. lets see what you can do, right here on the surf report.
regards,
ps. no comments regarding your neoluddite statistician statement.
Glad your short worked out a little today (see chart). If you could have read the Trend, not only your profit would have been greater but more importantly, your risk would have been FAR LESS.
As far as the "prior to it happening" comment, the only place I have been calling trades has been in this thread. I have called a couple trades since October & all have in advance and all have been correct.
We see the markets from two totally different worlds. I respect your viewpoint because I took the time to evaluate what you do. I don't care to trade your inconsistent style but I respect your reasoning for trading it.
You need to keep anna close or someone will steal her. Seems to be a smart lady there.
thank you. i agree she is brilliant, and i plan on keeping her very very close.
if you don't mind, please post when the DJIA should be shorted here on the report.
thanks again,
surf
thanks. who says its either or??
surf
i said "neoluddite"---there is a difference:
http://www.homoexcelsior.com/archive/transhuman/msg04880.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neo-luddism
surf
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