The Surf Report

[marketsurfer]

Quote from VictorS:

Hate to intrude on Mktsurf's thread here as this is directed to Proflogic ... Proflogic could you post your last 4 entries (and exits) on the emini?
how about starting your own discussion journal like Mktsurf, the Hershey/Spydertrader guys or Bright's open orders?

you're welcome here anytime, victor. thanks for the kind words. proflogic types have an agenda to sell their way of thinking regardless of what they say. every cult leader tells the flock to think for themselves, its a classic behaviorial meme. proflogic simply can't compete so he resorts to the things witnessed here instead of PROVING his methods.

he will never post a trade prior to taking it, since the "perfect" method would collapse when tested due to its very nature.

regards, surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from JimmyJam:

haha you are one sick pup, you know that surf?

You'd better be hope'in this baby starts to fall soon.

Good trading,

JJ

thanks, jimmy.

its just a theory, an untested hypothesis regarding the pink one.

but i agree it is pretty sick!

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from erblackiv:

This is one of the best pieces I've read comparing two very different personalities, and with them, very different market strategies.

http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

It's not intended to suggest parallels to those in dispute on this (Surf's) forum. It's meant generally, and I'd rather it led to the whole ego thing being put aside. I've been there and done that.

My own belief is that Surf's top calls should be taken seriously, whether or not they produce high percentage "hits" (see article).

What would be more helpful to me is a discussion on maximizing leverage, while limiting drawdown, in the event of a catastrophic, or semi-catastrophic, market event. UP or DOWN--especially, currently, how to mathematically implement a spread of out-of the-money puts.

I personally don't see the DOW outperforming to the downside the other indexes, and think that I want to switch my bets to the MDY or $RUT. Any suggestions or advice on this would be helpful.

separately, I´ve had good success daytrading with the volume analysis from Market Volume. This is what they had to say on 2-12 about the Nasdaq Mid Term.

Mid Term (lasts a few weeks to a few months):

We believe a new midterm downtrend is in the offing on the major indexes. Signs pointing to such a downtrend can be seen on one-year index volume (IV) charts of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100. Note the significant amount of selling volume (which appears in red on the SBV oscillator pane) accumulated throughout the persistent rally beginning in July 2006. A number of selling surges (spikes in the volume moving average visible in the index volume pane) also appear during that time. The latest noteworthy selling surge peaked in January 2007 (best seen on a NASDAQ 100 chart). In summary, we see the market develop a downside reaction to this large buildup of selling volume, creating a new mid-term downtrend.

Mid-Term Trend Outlook - There is convincing support for believing we are at the beginning of a mid-term downtrend.

thanks for the article on victor and nasim--excellent, malcolm is an insightful and clever writer. maximizing leverage while minimizing drawdown is the holy grail, im simply not capable of advising in that regard. i do believe that in order to obtain outsized gains, substantial risk must be endured.

trading the DJIA is a personal choice, it may not be the best index as you indicate but i'm comfortable with it.

regards, surfer

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from rustrader:

Heh, endless battle between ProfLogic and marketsurfer

Guys, instead of wasting your time for useless battle why not to exchange trading methods, experience, etc. may be not on public forum, may be privately.

It it so simple and so logical Remeber guys: time is money and you can use time better that try to scratch each other.

Kindest regards to Bill and Surf,

trader from cold Russia.

hello russia,

thanks for posting. its nice hearing from the cold north! i recently met a financer specializing in micro finance from russia. i have much respect for the progress made by your countrymen, all the best surf

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from erblackiv:

This is one of the best pieces I've read comparing two very different personalities, and with them, very different market strategies.

http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

...[/i]

Taleb said. His marker was once again squeaking across the whiteboard. "We say we have a Gaussian distribution, and you have the market switching from a low-volume regime to a high-volume.

intereting, indeed

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from nkhoi:

Taleb said. His marker was once again squeaking across the whiteboard. "We say we have a Gaussian distribution, and you have the market switching from a low-volume regime to a high-volume.

intereting, indeed

 

[T-REX]

Hey guys. good to see that your still around. I also see that nkhoi is a moderator now. Coooolllll

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

he will never post a trade prior to taking it, since the "perfect" method would collapse when tested due to its very nature.

regards, surf

Ignorance is bliss.

 

[mschey]

Quote from marketsurfer:

hello russia,

thanks for posting. its nice hearing from the cold north! i recently met a financer specializing in micro finance from russia. i have much respect for the progress made by your countrymen, all the best surf

Microfinance.....the politically correct term for loansharking.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from mschey:

Microfinance.....the politically correct term for loansharking.

true. but it's certainly preferable to having zero access to capital.

regards,

surf