The Surf Report

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Quote from marketsurfer:

First, please make a market call, any market call before it happens here on elite. Furthermore, my record has been publicly documented in practically real time since 1999---where's yours??

Let's see what you can do, other than rip on those who do in real time what you can only do in the past.

Your statements are pointless, we all know about your "perfect" record posted on your website which mysteriously disappeared for some reason--now that sites URL leads to tradestation.com

I have phrases for your edification-- driftless stochastic process, Brownian motion and Levy theorem. This would be a good start if you have any interest in actually doing what you talk about.

regards,

surfer

SURF gg 2-07
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I did, look back in YOUR "Surf Report". I stated the YM would continue to rise since October and it has. AND IT HASN'T CONFIRMED A TOP YET!

You want to set up a combined journal and swap trading posts in real time? Any time you want, I'm ready. If you want embarrassed in a public forum, I will surely oblige you.

I'm going to the movies. I await your snide decline of my challenge.
 
Heh, endless battle between ProfLogic and marketsurfer :)

Guys, instead of wasting your time for useless battle why not to exchange trading methods, experience, etc. may be not on public forum, may be privately.

It it so simple and so logical :) Remeber guys: time is money and you can use time better that try to scratch each other.

Kindest regards to Bill and Surf,

trader from cold Russia.
 
Quote from rustrader:

Heh, endless battle between ProfLogic and marketsurfer :)

Guys, instead of wasting your time for useless battle why not to exchange trading methods, experience, etc. may be not on public forum, may be privately.

It it so simple and so logical :) Remeber guys: time is money and you can use time better that try to scratch each other.

Kindest regards to Bill and Surf,

trader from cold Russia.
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I've offered numerious times but smurf won't take the time to actually see what specifically I DO do.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

I've offered numerious times but smurf won't take the time to actually see what specifically I DO do.
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So why do you waste your time for useless battle? It is not understandeble to me...

PS. Congrats with jubilee!
 
Quote from rustrader:

So why do you waste your time for useless battle? It is not understandeble to me...

PS. Congrats with jubilee!
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To show new traders that read these threads that thinking for themselves is far better than listening to any ONE individual, including me. Having an open mind is a far greater asset than being closed minded. When traders mindlessly follow anyone (including me) they will eventually lose. They must validate everything on there own. There are two sides to every idea and each trader must decide which is easier to verify but most importantly they HAVE to understand there IS alternative schools of thought.

Smurf would like traders to think that it is either his way or the highway and that nothing new will ever be discovered in this environment. How ridiculous is that?
 
This is one of the best pieces I've read comparing two very different personalities, and with them, very different market strategies.

http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

It's not intended to suggest parallels to those in dispute on this (Surf's) forum. It's meant generally, and I'd rather it led to the whole ego thing being put aside. I've been there and done that.

My own belief is that Surf's top calls should be taken seriously, whether or not they produce high percentage "hits" (see article).

What would be more helpful to me is a discussion on maximizing leverage, while limiting drawdown, in the event of a catastrophic, or semi-catastrophic, market event. UP or DOWN--especially, currently, how to mathematically implement a spread of out-of the-money puts.

I personally don't see the DOW outperforming to the downside the other indexes, and think that I want to switch my bets to the MDY or $RUT. Any suggestions or advice on this would be helpful.

separately, I´ve had good success daytrading with the volume analysis from Market Volume. This is what they had to say on 2-12 about the Nasdaq Mid Term.

Mid Term (lasts a few weeks to a few months):

We believe a new midterm downtrend is in the offing on the major indexes. Signs pointing to such a downtrend can be seen on one-year index volume (IV) charts of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100. Note the significant amount of selling volume (which appears in red on the SBV oscillator pane) accumulated throughout the persistent rally beginning in July 2006. A number of selling surges (spikes in the volume moving average visible in the index volume pane) also appear during that time. The latest noteworthy selling surge peaked in January 2007 (best seen on a NASDAQ 100 chart). In summary, we see the market develop a downside reaction to this large buildup of selling volume, creating a new mid-term downtrend.

Mid-Term Trend Outlook - There is convincing support for believing we are at the beginning of a mid-term downtrend.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:


You want to set up a combined journal and swap trading posts in real time? Any time you want,
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Excuse moi, but Surf already has his journal, you don't. So why don't YOU set up a journal, and let's say at the end of each month we can compare how you guys doing?

Or if you are that lazy, just post the opposite direction entry when Surf posts one trade. But we want exits too, not just predictions...
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Excuse moi, but Surf already has his journal, you don't. So why don't YOU set up a journal, and let's say at the end of each month we can compare how you guys doing?

Or if you are that lazy, just post the opposite direction entry when Surf posts one trade. But we want exits too, not just predictions...
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Only one response to this post will be sufficient. I don't want to distract from Smurf's realm.

I actually trade and monitor over 60 markets each day so hanging out here posting trades is ridiculously stupid not lazy. I only average less than 2 posts a day here in the last 3 years.

The ONLY reason I follow Smurf's YM trades is because one of my best friends has asked me to track the Dow since October to let him know of an exit point for his mutual fund. That hasn't happened . . . yet, so I haven't called an exit to any longs at this point.

I hate seeing even Smurf hemorrhage cash so I offered to help but all I get is snide refusals. My only point of irritation with Smurf is his constant insistence that what I do doesn't work when he is utterly clueless as to what I do. He enjoys ridiculing the unknown.

Now, I apologize if I have steered the thread away from Smurf's trading prowess so I will move back into the hallway.
 
Just pointing out 2 quick contradictions, then I am done with the feud between you guys:

Quote from ProfLogic:


I actually trade and monitor over 60 markets each day so hanging out here posting trades is ridiculously stupid not lazy. I only average less than 2 posts a day here in the last 3 years.

I don't doubt you are busy. But posting 1-2 trades a WEEK is much less time then writting lengthy explanations. And seriously, the reason you provided later is not a valid one, as you say:"so hanging out here posting trades is ridiculously stupid" :)

Not more so than hanging out here and posting anything else...

so I offered to help but all I get is snide refusals. My only point of irritation with Smurf is his constant insistence that what I do doesn't work when he is utterly clueless as to what I do.

Excuse moi, but if he doesn't know what you do (I take your word), why would he trust you that you know what you are doing? Wouldn't that be foolish of him? :)

Again, I am done with you guys, enjoy the summer!
 
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