- Am not so sure the oil short was a great trade... the way I remember it, at the end, it was a 2R trade, that is a win of twice the risk he took. Which is rather common and in no way great. A 10 R Trade is a great trade. Meaning the stop had to be so many points away that either he risked a huge percentage of his capital on the trade- which is crazy- or he made not much at all. If he risks a huge portion of his capital on every trade, he must be broke by now after the series of YM losses. If he risks a small part of his equity, the Oil short was but a small win. It does not matter if you make 100 points if it takes a 50 point risk to make them... which is exactly why selling tops is very risky and rarely lucrative.
The Surf Report
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
- Status
- Am not so sure the oil short was a great trade... the way I remember it, at the end, it was a 2R trade, that is a win of twice the risk he took. Which is rather common and in no way great. A 10 R Trade is a great trade. Meaning the stop had to be so many points away that either he risked a huge percentage of his capital on the trade- which is crazy- or he made not much at all. If he risks a huge portion of his capital on every trade, he must be broke by now after the series of YM losses. If he risks a small part of his equity, the Oil short was but a small win. It does not matter if you make 100 points if it takes a 50 point risk to make them... which is exactly why selling tops is very risky and rarely lucrative.
Those trades, and thousands of posts to ET, were made with a 'system' based on price levels Surfer now believes is no better than random, from his 11/07 post:
My fav post is his short call in early 05:
" holding shorts here. rally at open has faded--screens are turning red."
Followed by a fantastic rally....
Does anyone believe surfer is, or has ever been, profitable??? Or, has anything that could be called a 'system'?
Ok, IF that is true, I stand corrected it is about a 4-5R trade. Pretty good, far from incredible.
I probably mixed it up with another one which was touted as an amazing trade and when I calculated it it was actually 2R.
..."he beaten many hedge funds to thier own game" ... no idea what this has to do with the merit of one trade, "and made gains most on this board can only dream of" ... I sure hope that most on this board only dream (nightmares?) about the series of trades in the YM.
Yeah, short of looking at all of the +'s and -'s surf is the only one who knows what the final tally is.
Now, if he could just adapt some decent money management rules ala the turtle traders, with his ability to take and hold overnight highly leveraged positions and sleep well, then he would make a kill'in
JJ
I don't believe that Surf trades according to a single "system" that he applies across YM, QM, EUR etc. There are aspects to certain of his positions and trades (holding times, timing of reversals etc) that lead me to believe he bases his crude and dollar trades on something else entirely -- it's certainly not purely mechanical.
Of course this is just my guess. Surfer can claim otherwise but I probably wouldn't believe him anyways
Of course this is just my guess. Surfer can claim otherwise but I probably wouldn't believe him anyways
ok, to tell u the truth i didnt like much surf and thats because he's puerile and cannot be trusted after the slew of aliases he keeps makin' up but i tried to go past all the negative attributes and appreciate his skills and qualities, and i have to reckon he has many. i followed all of his trades and he was more often right then wrong. i dunno his position size on the late dia shorts and although they were losers he can also find some consolation on then many many winners he brought home. for what concerns beatin' hedge funds with enormous resources in a very competitive and overcrowded mkt is an achievement i cant overlook but maybe that's just me.
i,myself,have always enjoyed MS`s calls..........he does`nt have to do it but chooses to & imo,does`nt matter what size he has put on or his w/l record but should be taken for entertainment value only for the rest of us.i don`t think there is a reason to criticize a call he has made as it will only discourage him from making future calls.
as far as picking tops go,i don`t see anything wrong with being a CT trader.......some of tudor jones` greatest trades have been the CT variety,lo risk & a ton of profit potential......nice work on the crude trade,surf.
as far as picking tops go,i don`t see anything wrong with being a CT trader.......some of tudor jones` greatest trades have been the CT variety,lo risk & a ton of profit potential......nice work on the crude trade,surf.
- Status