The Surf Report

ProfLogic · Nov 25, 2006

Quote from Bitstream:

yeah second that.

third

JimmyJam · Nov 25, 2006

Actually, while they're certainly creative and different, it would be nice to see a running tally, whether it is with real cash or paper doesn't really matter.

This way any readers could see if you can actually make money trading in this fashion, or, if not, how could it be worked to make it more profitable.

Otherwise, it's good for a diversion and Surf seems to be a pretty genial guy, so we get a few chuckles.

JJ

der_kommissar · Nov 25, 2006

All the believers, riddle me this. What happened to his "hedge fund"? An oil short from $75 is easy when it's a message board "call". I'd just love to see if there was even a trade placed at those levels.

der_kommissar · Nov 25, 2006

Quote from JimmyJam:

Actually, while they're certainly creative and different, it would be nice to see a running tally, whether it is with real cash or paper doesn't really matter.

This way any readers could see if you can actually make money trading in this fashion, or, if not, how could it be worked to make it more profitable.

Otherwise, it's good for a diversion and Surf seems to be a pretty genial guy, so we get a few chuckles.

JJ

Funny how you changed your tune. I thought you were part of the Marketsurfer "jock riding" club. Oh, let me guess, you finally figured out he was a paper warrior with a fantasy hedge fund.

You guys want to know the Marketsurfer "formula". Fade any strong trend (on paper of course). Average down on these trades until you get a small breath of life. Then come onto this journal and claim "Victory!". Of course, occasionaly there will be a large hypothetical victory and he will claim he is still short (aka oil). However, riddle me this. With the martingale on that EUR/USD debacle last summer, who in their right mind would believe that the oil trade had even 1/5th the size of that horrendous EUR/USD trade.

You guys just dont pay any attention to details whatsoever. It's clear as day to anyone with a clue.

Vienna · Nov 25, 2006

Quote from der_kommissar:

However, riddle me this. With the martingale on that EUR/USD debacle last summer, who in their right mind would believe that the oil trade had even 1/5th the size of that horrendous EUR/USD trade.

My point exactly. Of course, I am sure MS would claim that he uses variable position sizing, and for some reason the YM shorts in the last six weeks were small size but that legendary oil short was done risking 25% of the account "since the retail trader only has a chance against the professionals if he is willing to risk much more"....

Doesnt mean anything if the 5th short in a rising market finally works out... by that time, your goose is cooked.

Vienna · Nov 25, 2006

Quote from Bitstream:

ok, to tell u the truth i didnt like much surf and thats because he's puerile and cannot be trusted after the slew of aliases he keeps makin' up

That is something that mystifies me- perhaps naive: why would one make up aliases unless banned

To argue with yourself?

volente_00 · Nov 26, 2006

Quote from Bitstream:

that trade was nothin' short of amazin' and many of us gave him credits for it.

He also bought F under 7 right before it ran to 9. But no one wants to mention that either.

Quote from marketsurfer:

SURF ALERT

we are stepping in here buyin FORD F @ 6.75.

surf

volente_00 · Nov 26, 2006

Quote from Vienna:

- Am not so sure the oil short was a great trade... the way I remember it, at the end, it was a 2R trade, that is a win of twice the risk he took. Which is rather common and in no way great. A 10 R Trade is a great trade. Meaning the stop had to be so many points away that either he risked a huge percentage of his capital on the trade- which is crazy- or he made not much at all. If he risks a huge portion of his capital on every trade, he must be broke by now after the series of YM losses. If he risks a small part of his equity, the Oil short was but a small win. It does not matter if you make 100 points if it takes a 50 point risk to make them... which is exactly why selling tops is very risky and rarely lucrative.

He was short around 75, and had a stop at 81 from his words. So he risked 6 to make 20.

Vienna · Nov 26, 2006

Quote from volente_00:

He was short around 75, and had a stop at 81 from his words. So he risked 6 to make 20.

That is a 3 R win. Not bad, nothing earth-shaking. Especially if you take series of 1R losses in between... basic math?

volente_00 · Nov 26, 2006

Quote from Vienna:

That is a 3 R win. Not bad, nothing earth-shaking. Especially if you take series of 1R losses in between... basic math?

What losses ? That was his trade, he was patient and damn near nailed the top while everyone was geting murdered shorting QM during that run up.