The Surf Report

Status
Not open for further replies.
What we are looking at this week from surf shack, tm, and yahoo



This was a rough week for the stock market. Every attempted rally was knocked back down with the DJIA now flirting with the 7000 support level. Negative news has come in waves as the stimulus plan is taking its time to gain traction prior to lifting the economy. Stocks hit a 12 year low on Monday as investors worried that Obama's plan will not be adequate. Tuesday saw a relief rally as Fed Chief Bernanke clearly stated that the recession may end by 2010. Midweek saw stocks take a roller coaster ride bolstered by good news of banks being provided 6 months to raise private capital then being subjected to a stress test prior to government intervention. However, the negative sentiment was too great to overcome causing the market to close down. If things couldn't get any worse, on Thursday, President Obama unveiled a plan to increase taxes on the wealthy. This combined with Dell Computer announcing a 48% decline in profits resulted in another down day. Stocks are struggling to turn profitable on Friday and are currently trading mixed mid afternoon.

Despite these difficult weeks, I remain solid in the belief that the government cash infusion, bargain hunters, and a tremendous amount of cash just waiting to be deployed should trigger an up move soon. However, no one really knows what's going to happen in the future, we can just analysis the evidence and make the best educated decisions. With this in mind, proven tools are critical in times like these to assist you in making the optimal investing decisions.




EDIT EDIT EDIT edit edit edit edit




BP Prudhoe Bay (NYSE:BPT - News) - An oil and gas firm that was just upgraded to a 3 from a 2 PowerRating. The company operates as a Grantor Trust and has a $1.16 billion dollar market cap. Recently, they were downgraded by Citigroup, but AG Edwards awarded them an upgrade. Price has been downtrending since the start of 2009, but around February 9th, the down move has become quite steep.

EPIQ Systems (NasdaqGS:EPIQ - News) - Another upgrade from 2 to a 3 PowerRating. This software provider for the legal profession experienced massive 32% growth in the 3rd quarter. In addition, Net Income gained by an astounding 67%. Price has been downtrending since the start of February, but appears to have found support on the 200-day SMA at 14.46. The strong fundamentals and PowerRating upgrade makes this a good candidate for further study.

Altria Group (NYSE:MO - News) - This company in the publicly and legally beat down tobacco sector was awarded a 4 Long Term PowerRating. They own such household names as Phillip Morris, Marlboro, and Skoal chewing tobacco, among many others. 2008 was positive for the firm with diluted EPS up 10%, Phillip Morris reported Operating Income up 7.9% and the Marlboro brand experienced a significant retail share advance. Technically, shares have been downtrending below both the 50 and 200=day SMA's. However, it appears a base may be forming around the $15.00/share area.

United Technologies (NYSE:UTX - News) - Another 3 rated Long Term Power Stock. They are a high technology company that provides items in the building and aerospace industries. Full year EPS was up 15% however, consolidated revenues were lower by 1%. The company provided strong guidance into 2009. On the chart, price is sub both the 50 and 200-day SMA's and has been downtrending since the start of 2009.

DENTSPLY (NasdaqGS:XRAY - News) - A 4 Long Term PowerRated dental supply company. They are based in York, PA and Net Sales have increased 9.6 % in 2008. An 11.3% increase in dilute EPS and provided strong guidance into 2009. Technically, price is below the 50-day SMA but appears to be basing around the $25.00/share area.

Paychex (NasdaqGS:PAYX - News) - This outsourcing benefit, payroll and human resources company has been awarded a 4 Long Term PowerRating. Fiscal 2nd quarter 2009 was strong with a 6% increase in Revenue and a 7% increase in Net Income. They were just ranked 39 on Fortune magazine's best companies to work for. Price has been downtrending since February 9th. The company is still trading below its 50 and 200-day SMA's.

Stocks In The News

Here are a few noteworthy names that caught my eye this week:

Aetna (NYSE:AET - News) - Dropped after President Obama suggested cutting payments to private insurers.

International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM - News) - Reaffirmed its full year 2009 profit forecast pushing shares up.

MetroPCS (NYSE:PCS - News) - A leading provider of cellular service without out contracts jumped after beating analysts profit estimates.

SLM Corp. (NYSE:SLM - News) - The largest student lender plummeted upon President Obama stating he may cut student loan subsidies.

DineEquity (NYSE:DIN - News) - Advanced as the owner of Applebee's and IHOP beat analysts earnings estimates by 0.14 cents/share.

First Solar (NYSE:FSLR - News) - Was hit hard, falling after the solar module maker said it would miss analysts sales estimates.

Herbalife (NYSE:HLF - News) - The multilevel nutritional marketing company fell upon forecasting 2009 earnings missing analysts estimates.

JM Smucker (NYSE:SJM - News) - Dropped after advising it may miss analysts 2009 earnings estimates.

This Week's Top Performers

South First Bankshares (Nasdaq:SZBI - News)

SunTrust Banks (NYSE:STI - News)

Nova Chemicals (NYSE:NCX - News)

This Week's Worst Performers

Kronos Worldwide (NYSE:KRO - News)

HealthSpring (NYSE:HS - News)

Humana (NYSE:HUM - News)

What To Look For Next Week

Monday - Personal Income, ISM Index

Tuesday - Auto Sales, Pending Home Sales

Wednesday - ISM Services, Crude Inventories

Thursday - Initial Claims, Factory Orders

Friday - Non Farm Payrolls, Consumer Credit Unemployment
 
Hey look surf, your old friend ProfLogic was nominated for a Nobel Prize in 2006!

Wow, I hope you got an interview with him at your party ... :0)

Quote from Equalizer:

LOL... this is from a while back (from his arsechum's site) but still funny

http://forum.tssupport.com/viewtopi...t=&sid=e320c742cd29b90c63bad883f95af398#22639

As we have already said, Bill Schamp is incompetent. Let me explain why.

Bill Schamp absolutely seriously claims that he once almost became a Nobel Prize winner. He also proclaimed himself a professor of logic and a software developer. All at the same time.
Obviously, this can’t be true, but Bill has his own peculiar perception of reality. Therefore, he cannot objectively assess the situation and our arguments don’t mean anything to him. Apart from that, Bill misrepresents facts as is typical of him.

:p:D:p

and then Frothy's unvelievable response to MC support's scathing reply:

"I was nominated by a Nobel committee in Switzerland in 2006 for my research in price movement as it realated to price bars and volume. That isn't the same as winning a Nobel but I wouldn't expect you to understand the difference. I taught logic and problem solving at a corporate level to programmers inside developmental environments. I worked on numerious [sic] software developmental (LOL, developmental :D) teams over the last 30 years as well. I can document my experience and my achievements. I'm sorry you feel the necessity to belittle my accomplishments just to justify your position."

ROFLMAO. Can you prove that Bill? Or is this fake like your "doctorial" [sic] thesis, as expected from a pathological liar. :D
More...
 
How is your Fund doing Surf? If it's based on your analysis the last few months and quarters than I can not imagine that you are still in business but some do than write the opposite.....so maybe that's you and you are making money. I can only hope.
 
Quote from WyckoffTrader:

How is your Fund doing Surf? If it's based on your analysis the last few months and quarters than I can not imagine that you are still in business but some do than write the opposite.....so maybe that's you and you are making money. I can only hope.
More...


Trading is done in a personal account only, and yes, things have been rough lately.

Fortunately, I am not a trader/analyst for the hedge fund. My role is in a marketing capacity and we invest in non-equity type niche investments. We were up over 27% for 2008 and are up over 10% thus far in 2009. I am quite proud and pleased with the performance, even though I am not directly responsble--- We believe in investing with traders/funds that have real edge despite the gloomy environment.

If anyone has interest and the wherewithall to get involved in several exciting and top performing non equity strategies, shoot me a PM

regards, surf
 
SURF ALERT SURF ALERT SURF ALERT SURF ALERT SURF ALERT



the upper channel line on the YM is 6853.

IF violated, go ALL IN LONG


ALL signals are pointing LONG LONG LONG, if the upper line is taken out.


LONG

surf
 
Quote from MandelbrotSet:

Hey look surf, your old friend ProfLogic was nominated for a Nobel Prize in 2006!

Wow, I hope you got an interview with him at your party ... :0)
More...


Although, I still believe his system is more hype than substance, The Prof was a very kind gentlemen who appeared very credible and intelligent.

I am surprised he would say he was nominated for the Noble Prize. The Noble Prize would never be awarded for a TA method. He was probably just joking...

surf
 
Some things I am looking at from yahoofinance ( front page) :) and TM.



Stocks are attempting to fight back and stabilize after hitting 11 year lows yesterday. Ben Bernanke clearly stated today that any recovery is directly related to the Feds ability to support the shaky financial sector. The indexes are flirting back and forth across breakeven as shares digest the continued negative economic news.

ADVERTISEMENT


The market is engaged in an epic battle between government intervention and free market capitalism. This pull and push creates many opportunities for savvy long term investors. In fact, historic low valuations combined with tons of capital looking for a home should eventually trigger a new bull. However, no one knows for certain when this will happen. One thing remains constant despite the chaotic market conditions, the need for proven tools to help choose stocks for long term investment. These trying times create opportunities for savvy investors. Think of the wealth earned by those who had the foresight to invest in stocks during the Great Depression. However, one simply can't invest on feelings or whims. A proven system is required to increase the odds that your stocks will outperform over the long run. EDIT eDiT Edit6666666444445555577777&&&&&&&

h the DJIA. EDIT EDIT EDIT

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG - News) - A giant personal products company earning a 5 Long Term PowerRating. They just announced fiscal 2nd quarter results that were in line with expectations. The Folgers transaction pushed diluted EPS up 61% for the quarter and organic sales growth gained by 2%. However, Net Sales and Operating Margins both declined. They are forecasting a decline in volume and sales in the present fiscal quarter. Technically, price has been downtrending since the start of 2009. It is below both the 50 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages at 55.52 and 62.33 respectively. However, it looks like price may have found a bottom in the $48.00/share range.



Altria Group (NYSE:MO - News) - This company in the publicly and legally beat down tobacco sector was awarded a 4 Long Term PowerRating. They own such household names as Phillip Morris, Marlboro, and Skoal chewing tobacco, among many others. 2008 was positive for the firm with diluted EPS up 10%, Phillip Morris reported Operating Income up 7.9% and the Marlboro brand experienced a significant retail share advance. Technically, shares have been downtrending below both the 50 and 200-day SMA's. The next level of technical support appears at $14.25/share.



Nasdaq

Microchip Technology (NasdaqGS:MCHP - News) - This semiconductor company has earned a 4 Long Term PowerRating. They experienced a rough fiscal 3rd quarter 2009 with net sales down 28.8% and earnings were down 49.5%. However, they were able to maintain their dividend distribution. The company names the poor economic environment as the cause of its financial issues. No guidance was provided into the future. Technically, the stock has been downtrending since February 9th but is well off its earlier lows of late 2008. Price is below the 50 and 200-day SMA's but may be basing around the $17.00 to $17.50 levels.



InterActive Corp (NasdaqGS:IACI - News) - A 4 Long Term PowerRated stock in the internet sector. They just re-launched Ask.com, own the popular dating site Match.com and posted a 64% increase in operating income in the 4th quarter. Price has been churning between $14.00 and $15.00/share since January 12th. It is still below the 50 and 200-day SMA that are at $15.14 and $16.24/share respectively.



S&P 500

CR Bard (NYSE:BCR - News) - The number one Long Term PowerRated stock in the S&P 500. They are in the medical field earning a 6 Long Term Power Rating. Revenue was up 13% in the third quarter and Net Income was up 9%. Price has been downtrending steeply since mid February and is below the 50 and 200-day SMA's



Abbott Labs (NYSE:ABT - News) - The second topped ranked stock in the S&P 500 with a 5 Long Term PowerRating. They just reported a 17.6 increase in sales for the 3rd quarter and raised the EPS outlook. Price has been steeply downtrending over the last week, but appears to have found support around the $46.00/share area.



EDIT
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top