The Surf Report

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FYI - I work for a large, infamous conglomerate, and the President of the most profitable segment just made everyone cancel all their travel plans. . . and these are 10-20 person meetings, although airfare is basically non refundable, hotels and rental cars are equal to the air fare, and there are 50 - 100 meetings's worth of travel cancelled. . .

deflationary mentality is slowing increasing, the velocity of money will again get near zero by the end of the first quarter.

i wish i had acted on your short signal surf, it was a very timely signal. . .

sportsguy
 
I am no sure something fishy going on with the market...the last 3 months up 300 points down 300 points ... what a joke, its not normal and is man made probably by our nice Gov men trying to hide something more real such as gold at $4000!!!

Also has this thread closed? nothing since 22 jan?
 
am a connoisseur of the hamburger. It's my belief that one can tell the quality of the restaurant by their burgers. Tasting burgers in the finest restaurants to greasy spoons is somewhat of a hobby. I have tried everything from a $75.00 Kobe Beef burger (which was severely disappointing, by the way) to $1.00 Burger King Jr. Whoppers (not bad for the price!) and everything in between.

Recently, I had lunch at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. I was skeptical at first about any fast food place that would call itself "gourmet". Noting the great service, cool atmosphere, over 2 dozen interesting, delicious sounding burgers on the menu, and the piece de resistance of a bottomless French fry bowl; my skepticism lowered to the point of allowing me to actually order. To my surprise, the burger was excellent. Of course it didn't compare to more expensive true gourmet burgers, but for this style of fast food restaurant it was, bluntly stated, delicious.

After this positive overall dining experience, I decided to look closer at the company from an investor's standpoint. First, I checked the PowerRatings of the company. Surprising the chain only earned a 1 Long Term PowerRating.


Let's take a closer look at the gourmet burger chain, Red Robin (RRGB | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating).

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers was founded in 1969. They have since expanded to over 400 locations in the United States and Canada. Their focus is on being family friendly, economical and of course, having the best tasting fast food burgers available anywhere. The chain announced fiscal third quarter results with a 10.6% increase in Revenues, 18.5% Restaurant level Operating Profit and 34 new Red Robin's were open over the year period. However, overall sales, profit margins and franchise sales decreased due to the slowing economy. This company seems poised to be among the first to benefit from an initial economic upswing. When the economy improves, families will start dining out more in family friendly establishments, which in turn should help improve Red Robin's bottom line.

Technically, the stock has been uptrending off of a spike down in mid-January. Price is remains below the 50-day SMA at 13.89 and way below the 200-day SMA currently at 23.80. These guys have a solid concept, good food and a strong management team. Despite the lowly Long Term PowerRating, this one deserves a place on your watch list for improvements!
 
Live from NYC, via iPhone. The people have spoken!


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Looking forward to seeing everyone at surf fest on Saturday evening!


what's we are looking at....



PowerRatings Weekly Outlook: ABC, IBM, ABV, AMAG, KO
Friday February 20, 9:11 am ET

Uncertainty in the economy has led to another down week in the stock market. The economic stimulus package is not yet being accepted as business as usual. The market appears to be rebelling against government intervention by trying to shake out any remaining bulls.

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Monday was Presidents' Day with the markets being closed. Tuesday saw the hammer of rebellion as fears of consumer credit defaults knocked down stocks while the Stimulus Package was being signed. Midweek, the Fed cut economic growth forecasts and housing hit a record low. Despite the continued dire news, stocks closed relatively flat on the day. A dramatic jump in wholesale inflation greeted investors on Thursday, knocking stocks near major lows. Friday is starting out with the DJIA futures down sharply on the heels of rising inflations and core consumer prices.

These types of situations create opportunity for savvy long term investors. I remain solid in the belief that the government cash infusion, bargain hunters, and a tremendous amount of cash just waiting to be deployed should lead stocks upward in 2009.

However, no one really knows what's going to happen in the future, we can just analysis the evidence and make the best educated decisions. EDiT EDiT EDiT

edit:

Amerisourcebergen (NYSE:ABC - News) - This 5 Long Term PowerRated pharmaceutical service company just announced a 12% increase in diluted EPS for the fiscal first quarter. Operating margins were up 3 basis points and Revenue gained by .3%. Technically, price has been uptrending nicely since November 24th. However, today price fell below the 200-day SMA at $37.00/share. The 50-day SMA looks like the next technical support level at $35.44/share.

International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM - News) - This computer giant has been awarded a 4 Long Term PowerRating and is the top rated stock in the DJIA. They recently announced record revenues, record pre-tax profits, record EPS, and record free cash flow for 2008. The firm has provided strong guidance into 2009 with an expectation of at least $9.20/EPS. They are constantly innovating and developing new ideas/products to stay on the cutting edge. The latest initiative involves cloud computing which seems to be one the most recent hot topic in techno-industrial circles. Technically, shares have been uptrending since December 24th. Price is nicely above the 50-day SMA yet still below the 200-day SMA at $105.58/share. Price was rejected off the $97.50/share level and is currently trading around $91.00/share.

AMBEV (NYSE:ABV - News) - This Brazilian based brewery trades in the U.S. as an ADR. They are the world's 5th largest brewery with operations in 14 countries including the United States. They also distribute Pepsi products in Latin America. The brewery is the number 1 Long Term PowerRated stock on the screener, but only has only been awarded the lowest PowerRating of a 1. They were positive by most metrics in the 3rd quarter, but strong results in North America couldn't fully offset a terrible beverage market in their home country. Technically, price was uptrending since February 1st, but recently steeply dropped off the trend line. It is now trading below the 50-day SMA around $42.00/share.

Advanced Magnetics (NasdaqGM:AMAG - News) - Another lowly 1 Long Term PowerRated stock hitting the second most requested level on the screener. They are a biopharmaceutical company with a proprietary iron compound used in diagnoses of cancer and other diseases. Costs were up due to research, and the company posted a loss in the 3rd quarter. They are working hard on getting their new substance Ferumoxytol on the market. Technically, price was in a gentle uptrend since mid January, making it above both the 50 and 200-day SMA's. However, over the last 2 days, shares have dropped back down to be sitting on the 200-day SMA at $36.62/share.

Coca Cola (NYSE:KO - News) - This soft drink giant is the highest ranked company on the most requested list earning a 4 Long Term PowerRating. They just announced volume increase of 4% and a 6% increase in cash flow in the 4th quarter. China and India saw huge jumps in sales volume. EPS was up 17% on the year. The company is continuing to show solid fundamentals and provided strong guidance into the future. Technically, price doubled bottomed around $40.50/share between November 2008 and now, bounced back up to the 50-day SMA 5 days ago, and has dipped back down to the $42.60/range.

Stocks In The News

Here are a few names catching my eye this week:

American Express (NYSE:AXP - News) - The larhest U.S. credit card company by purchases fell on rising consumer defaults.

Deere (NYSE:DE - News) - The farm equipment maker was cut to sell by Goldman, dropped on the news.

General Motors (NYSE:GM - News) - Led the DJIA lower since they may need more government aid to survive.

Research in Motion (NasdaqGS:RIMM - News) - The blackberry maker after the CEO stated that the profit margin decline may be permanent.

UBS AG (NYSE:UBS - News) - News hit the wire at the close of trading that Swiss official are allowing the firm to hand over client data to U.S. officials despite solid Swiss bank secrecy laws. Plus negative news of an SEC investigation hit the wire with shares reacted by dropping.

Comcast Corp (NasdaqGS:CMCSA - News) - Dipped after canceling a share buy back program.

Volcano Corp (NasdaqGM:VOLC - News) - Climbed after the medical company said it would beat analysts estimates for 2009-02-18.

This Week's Top Performers

MACAU Capital (Nasdaq:MCIM - News)

Buffalo Wild Wings (NasdaqGS:BWLD - News)

Innovative Solutions (NasdaqGS:ISSC - News)

This Week's Worst Performers

Terex Corp (NYSE:TEX - News)

Life Partners (NasdaqGS:LPHI - News)

Penske Automotive (NYSE:PAG - News)

What To Watch For Next Week

Tuesday - Consumer Confidence, Home Price Index

Wednesday - Home Sales, Crude Inventory

Thursday - Durable Goods, Initial Claims

Friday - GDP, PMI
 
Surf fest was a blast !!

It was great to meet so many from the board.

Some very intelligent trading conversation that night and everyone was in a good mood.

As an added bonus It was also enjoyable to be able to see a few hot girls handling and smoking cigars. it just doesn't get much better than that. : o )

Good work Surf !!

Bob
 
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