The Surf Report
- Thread starter marketsurfer
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No worries, you're still the accountant.
That's pretty much the exact amount that he "lost" in the rollover.
Not rolling over to the front month at the appropriate time can leave a trader stranded if he is holding a position in which he expects to make a substantial amount of money overtime.
If a trader by chance forgets to rollover, OOPS!
JJ
P.S. But it isn't a new trade, it's still the original trade, which has been rolled over.
OK, ladies and gentlemen, I have to report that my bullshit-o-meter has just broken down. And it was brand new! 
Here is a quote from Surf almost 3 weeks ago, 11/29:
That was the DECEMBER contract. Now 3 weeks later he mysteriously ALREADY rolled over and holding the March contract with exactly the same breakeven price. But, there is an about 90 points difference between the Dec and the March contracts, so unless my 3rd grade math is bad or Surf is incredibly bad at rolling over, he lost 90 points at rolling over, which is very amateurish...
...or there could be another explanation, but I let you guys figure that one out....
Here is a quote from Surf almost 3 weeks ago, 11/29:
That was the DECEMBER contract. Now 3 weeks later he mysteriously ALREADY rolled over and holding the March contract with exactly the same breakeven price. But, there is an about 90 points difference between the Dec and the March contracts, so unless my 3rd grade math is bad or Surf is incredibly bad at rolling over, he lost 90 points at rolling over, which is very amateurish...
...or there could be another explanation, but I let you guys figure that one out....
maybe surf should stick with diamonds (DIA). the math would be much easier.
Quote from Pekelo:
OK, ladies and gentlemen, I have to report that my bullshit-o-meter has just broken down. And it was brand new!
Here is a quote from Surf almost 3 weeks ago, 11/29:
That was the DECEMBER contract. Now 3 weeks later he mysteriously ALREADY rolled over and holding the March contract with exactly the same breakeven price. But, there is an about 90 points difference between the Dec and the March contracts, so unless my 3rd grade math is bad or Surf is incredibly bad at rolling over, he lost 90 points at rolling over, which is very amateurish...
...or there could be another explanation, but I let you figure that one out....
LOL, I don't belive I'm the one who has to defend the guy!
What he did was absolutely correct in terms of initiating the original trade in the December '07 contract, rolling it over to the March '08 contract, and holding at the current March '08 price of 13219.
This is all very basic long-term futures trading here folks ... for the drawdown that he took, this contract has to make it to at least 12000 or lower to have made it worth it on a R:R basis, and that might take some time, so that's why he had to roll the contract over, he couldn't afford to get stuck holding the December '07 contract after it stopped trading.
JJ
What he did was absolutely correct in terms of initiating the original trade in the December '07 contract, rolling it over to the March '08 contract, and holding at the current March '08 price of 13219.
This is all very basic long-term futures trading here folks ... for the drawdown that he took, this contract has to make it to at least 12000 or lower to have made it worth it on a R:R basis, and that might take some time, so that's why he had to roll the contract over, he couldn't afford to get stuck holding the December '07 contract after it stopped trading.
JJ
For entertainment, what else?
(not to mention that sexy, chessplayer academics read our posts here)And no JJ, you are wrong. When you roll over even with a huge position, if you pick a time to do so when the market isn't very volatile, the slippage shouldn't be more than 5-10, max. 20 YM points...
And the chances Surf would get EXACTLY the same price for the new contracts is let's just say, very slim...
P.S.: Mvic, what makes you reading our trite posts? A super life waster?
Now, ignoring Mvic and getting back to our discussion.Quote from Pekelo:
For entertainment, what else?
And no JJ, you are wrong. When you roll over even with a huge position, if you pick a time to do so when the market isn't very volatile, the slippage shouldn't be more than 5-10, max. 20 YM points...
And the chances Surf would get EXACTLY the same price for the new contracts is let's just say, very slim...
The two contracts (December '07 and March '08) trade at a price differential (spread) of approximately 80pts YM, so he never could makeup that price difference ... he's stuck with it rolling over into the front month.
(Don't belive me? Just pull-up the two contracts and check the prices ... the spread is approximately 80pts YM.)
JJ
When you rollover to a new contract, there is an instant change in the breakeven value for the overall trade. Since the difference between the 2 contracts is approximately 80-90 pts, then the real breakeven, based on holding the new contract, should be around 13,254-64.
So, for Surf to state that breakeven is still 13,174, means that he either hasn't a clue, or hasn't a trade.
So, for Surf to state that breakeven is still 13,174, means that he either hasn't a clue, or hasn't a trade.
That would have been my guess as well, apart from the fact that it should be noted the two possibilities you cited are not mutually exclusive. But, to be fair, I was asking for clarification. Perhaps, being a man of science, surf has a plausible explanation...
Wrong again.
The breakeven is the amalgamated price of his multiple entries in the original contract ... 13174.
To state otherwise would mean that he would have had to have taken a loss on the orginal trade, and he would need to make up that loss + to get into profit.
So, for accounting purposes, what he has done is correct.
JJ
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