The Surf Report

[marketsurfer]

Quote from JimmyJam:

Excellent analysis TM, and as a long-time knkicks fan, the "tweener" concept isn't lost on me (frick'in knicks, they gave away last nights game ... again).

Surf does very interesting work here, but since it's nether intraday, nor position, nor weekly timeframe it's actually very difficult for us to even see what the hell he is talking about.

Sharp,

JJ

P.S. It would also help if he could form his methodology and overview in a complete sentence, but he doesn't, perhaps on purpose.

Thanks for the post JJ.

maybe this will clarify my tactics--- i trade 2 primary methods with the YM and remain flexible as to which one to use at any given time. The channel system which was the original method I first designed back in 1999 to trade the nasdaq. this systems internals have never changed, however the method to determine the channel levels has evolved dramatically. some have argued that this is a form of trend following--- well, ok, but its not the traditional, accepted form of TF.

the other method, which is what caught this nice move is the, trend/drift anticipator.... hopefully this sheds some light.




surf

 

[Tracy McGreedy]

Wrong again. Actually, those who are slaughtered are just not correctly following trend! You assume all trend followers are poor speculators. In fact, most speculators IN GENERAL are poor, regardless of strategy. You assume a strategy is worthy only if the majority of it's students succeed. Laughable!

Your time frame can only hit ripples within waves, unless hit an outlier event such as black monday, which involves more of a lottery-type probability.

Example of trend following:

Shorting dollar from 2003.
Long Crude oil from 2004.
Short homebuilders from 2005.
Short Financials from 2007.



Obviously, trends don't go up or down in a straight line. Your strategy seeks to capture the small retracements (5-10%). I don't blame you for being anti-trend following since the premise of your strategy profits from mean reversion/short term retracement. Your strategy is interesting, but flawed. Seeking large black swan type movement in the markets with a very short time frame involves hope and luck.


Trends last for years. Your strategy could never incorporate trend following, since your time frame is restricted to on average 1 week to 2 (as I've read in your journal).

Your "definition" of trend following isn't universal. One's religion is his, and never universal. At least in my community of highly successful trendfollowers, often use pullback retracements as entry. Also, trendfollowers anticipate new trends, change in trends, etc.

Quote from marketsurfer:


i am not a trend follower, but rather a trend anticipator. followers get slaughtered again and again, as we witness the stumbling public who by default are trend followers. anticipators, on the other hand, are the actual participants of speculation---- the individuals, the frontline, the risk takers who reap the spoils, freely given by the misguided and confused trend FOLLOWERS.

i do not have an aversion to heat, but rather embrace it as a necessary step in trend anticipation.

regards,

surf

ps. "trend anticipation" copyright pending marketsurfer2007

 

[Tracy McGreedy]

Jimmy, the knicks need a true point guard. Please almighty God, send us one. We haven't had one since Frazier.

Quote from JimmyJam:

Excellent analysis TM, and as a long-time knkicks fan, the "tweener" concept isn't lost on me (frick'in knicks, they gave away last nights game ... again).

Surf does very interesting work here, but since it's nether intraday, nor position, nor weekly timeframe it's actually very difficult for us to even see what the hell he is talking about.

Sharp,

JJ

P.S. It would also help if he could form his methodology and overview in a complete sentence, but he doesn't, perhaps on purpose.

 

[Tracy McGreedy]

You average more than 1 trade per month on the YM, and anticipate a change in trend each time. Trends take years to change, so if you are trading so frequently, you end up in the 'TWEENER' camp.

Quote from Tracy McGreedy:

Wrong again. Actually, those who are slaughtered are just not correctly following trend! You assume all trend followers are poor speculators. In fact, most speculators IN GENERAL are poor, regardless of strategy. You assume a strategy is worthy only if the majority of it's students succeed. Laughable!

Your time frame can only hit ripples within waves, unless hit an outlier event such as black monday, which involves more of a lottery-type probability.

Example of trend following:

Shorting dollar from 2003.
Long Crude oil from 2004.
Short homebuilders from 2005.
Short Financials from 2007.



Obviously, trends don't go up or down in a straight line. Your strategy seeks to capture the small retracements (5-10%). I don't blame you for being anti-trend following since the premise of your strategy profits from mean reversion/short term retracement. Your strategy is interesting, but flawed. Seeking large black swan type movement in the markets with a very short time frame involves hope and luck.


Trends last for years. Your strategy could never incorporate trend following, since your time frame is restricted to on average 1 week to 2 (as I've read in your journal).

Your "definition" of trend following isn't universal. One's religion is his, and never universal. At least in my community of highly successful trendfollowers, often use pullback retracements as entry. Also, trendfollowers anticipate new trends, change in trends, etc.

 

[Tracy McGreedy]

Surfer, one way to end your tweener status, is to define who you are. Have you considered leveraging your strategy 10x. You seem to be good at hitting short term reversals.

Short 5000 YM covering 600 points profit clean and quick.

or

Short 500 YM and riding 1500 points with multitudes of retracement along the way.


You are in between right now.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Tracy McGreedy:

Surfer, one way to end your tweener status, is to define who you are. Have you considered leveraging your strategy 10x. You seem to be good at hitting short term reversals.

Short 5000 YM covering 600 points profit clean and quick.

or

Short 500 YM and riding 1500 points with multitudes of retracement along the way.


You are in between right now.

thankyou what you say makes sense... I apprieciate the suggestions.

best wishes

surf

 

[Robert Weinstein]

Quote from marketsurfer:

well, mr. dog, thank you for the questions. however, you are confusing specifics with generalities with my statements. First, Trend Following by definition is buying/selling new highs/lows, the high/low tick if you will, expecting additional moves in the same direction. you or anyone making up a definition differing from the accepted definition does not change the facts. "boneheads" your word, is only knowable in hindsight. those who bought the perceived "top tick" through the year long rally were heroes, not boneheads. remember, top tick, is relative until one enters or the drift actually changes-- it is also only viewable in hindsight.

i am not a trend follower, but rather a trend anticipator. followers get slaughtered again and again, as we witness the stumbling public who by default are trend followers. anticipators, on the other hand, are the actual participants of speculation---- the individuals, the frontline, the risk takers who reap the spoils, freely given by the misguided and confused trend FOLLOWERS.

i do not have an aversion to heat, but rather embrace it as a necessary step in trend anticipation.

regards,

surf

ps. "trend anticipation" copyright pending marketsurfer2007

Right on Surf,

couldnt agree more.

 

[syswizard]

Quote from marketsurfer:
thankyou what you say makes sense... I apprieciate the suggestions.
best wishes
surf

Surf - you still short YM ?
If so, what's your anticipated cover ? 13k even, 12.5k ?

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from marketsurfer:

once a directional position is opened, of course one needs to be on the right side of the directional movement. sticking with the drift is the way to go, this is RIDING THE TREND/DRIFT, not TREND FOLLOWING. i dont believe in the entry methods of trend followers, et al. ---but holding a position works, ofcourse. buy/sell and hold.

regards,

surf

The above post is absolutely brilliant.

The main problem traders have is attempting to put a square peg (linarity) into a round hole (cyclic movement). The plethora of products currently on the market for traders speaks to the desire of traders to find linear (ie, riskfree) movement of the traded indice.

The fact that a lot of the vendor businesses currently on the market make their money selling their systems, not trading them speaks to the difficulty traders have in even reaching this point in their understanding of trading, much less knowing what to do about it.

Correctly identifying the Trend Drift TM, (another Market Surfer trademark) entering trade as it begins and correctly identifying its ending would probably yield a moderate amount of breakevens, a nice loss every now and again, and a good number of rather exceptional wins.

Pretty good formula for successful trading, you ask me.

The trick, of course, is in its execution.

As always, this thread has the interesting ability to attract the more ingelligent and thoughtful traders on ET (LOL, no I'm not talking about myself).

Good trading,

JJ

 

[quantsteve]

Quote from marketsurfer:

once a directional position is opened, ofcourse one needs to be on the right side of the directional movement. sticking with the drift is the way to go, this is RIDING THE TREND/DRIFT, not TREND FOLLOWING. TF is a specific method per those who write about such things. i dont believe in the entry methods of trend followers, et al. ---but holding a position works, ofcourse. buy/sell and hold.

Trend Followers TOOK A BATH buying the top tick in the YM etc recently.
regards,
surf

Quote from JimmyJam:

The above post is absolutely brilliant.

crucial insight (.. he he) :


Trend Drift TM



Good trading,

JJ

OK surf,
I think we can summarize your views :

Trend Drift TM = Real, true thing, actually exists


TREND FOLLOWING and TREND = Not real, false, does not exist