The Surf Report

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Rumours of my demise are greatly exagerated! Spent a wonderful evening with good exotic food and even better and more perfect company, what a great way to get ones mind off of a bad( so far) trade. thanks for everyone's well wishes and concern. Yes, i'm down substantially on this trade and was obvious very wrong with the timing--- negative 249 points at this date and am presently negative on the year. the position size is small, but stil the point loss is inexcusable on my end--- at times i seem to get so focused on and convinced of the analysis that i fail to see the reality of the situation as its happening. it gets worse, so i think--this is the final thrust, i'll just hold some more, and so it goes. position sizing is really the key, without, this would be account destroying. you can see my average entry point on the attached chart.

on the good side--CROX short is performing nicely with close to a point of profit presently.

Looking for an entry into the EUR/USD when/if it presents itself this coming week.
best wishes,

surf
 

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Quote from marketsurfer:

Rumours of my demise are greatly exagerated! Spent a wonderful evening with good exotic food and even better and more perfect company, what a great way to get ones mind off of a bad( so far) trade. thanks for everyone's well wishes and concern. Yes, i'm down substantially on this trade and was obvious very wrong with the timing--- negative 249 points at this date and am presently negative on the year. the position size is small, but stil the point loss is inexcusable on my end--- at times i seem to get so focused on and convinced of the analysis that i fail to see the reality of the situation as its happening. it gets worse, so i think--this is the final thrust, i'll just hold some more, and so it goes. position sizing is really the key, without, this would be account destroying. you can see my average entry point on the attached chart.

on the good side--CROX short is performing nicely with close to a point of profit presently.

Looking for an entry into the EUR/USD when/if it presents itself this coming week.
best wishes,

surf
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Excellent trading Marketsurfer, excellent trading.

No point in taking early profits when the 300pt drop-off is right around the corner (so many traders just go for those short-term gains).

Like you said, it's all about position sizing and risk management ... and as far as being down currently, no worries. There's still plenty of time to win the game, especially if you continue to swing for the fences.

Here's looking forward to a profitable second-half.

Jimmy Jam
 
hey surf, one way to avoid a huge loss is put a time and price constraint risk management.

ie.. if price is not below or above a specific level, I will exit the trade.

ie. if profit hasnt registered by a specific date, I will exit the trade.

price and time stops, are important to not let a trend wipe you out.
 
What most of you don't understand is that surfer is not a typical trader, he is a rarer breed, a true speculator. I empathize with him as I too do not trade in the sense that most here on ET do taking crumbs here and there eking out a living. In speculation (usually not for an income but to add to net worth or tiny portion of one's portfolio taking on high risk to increase over all portfolio annual return by a few points) you have to take outsized risks for outsized gains and your year will be made on very few trades (typically 1-5). Surfs only problem is that he doesn't employ any type of hedge at any time. His timing is actually pretty decent and if he just hedged every now and again he would be up substantially on the year even though he was on the wrong side of the trade. This is the third and last time I will post this advice. Good luck surf.
 
Quote from Mvic:

What most of you don't understand is that surfer is not a typical trader, he is a rarer breed, a true speculator. I empathize with him as I too do not trade in the sense that most here on ET do taking crumbs here and there eking out a living. In speculation (usually not for an income but to add to net worth or tiny portion of one's portfolio taking on high risk to increase over all portfolio annual return by a few points) you have to take outsized risks for outsized gains and your year will be made on very few trades (typically 1-5). Surfs only problem is that he doesn't employ any type of hedge at any time. His timing is actually pretty decent and if he just hedged every now and again he would be up substantially on the year even though he was on the wrong side of the trade. This is the third and last time I will post this advice. Good luck surf.
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Thanks for your explanation Mvic, I don't think Surf understands that either.

JJ
 
Doing the same thing over and over expecting different results........ insanity.

Surf, I am going to be blunt. You may have had some luck on your previous winners and therefore believe that you will always be right if you do the same thing. I suggest trading the right hand edge for several hundred if not thousands of trades with the same setup. Document winners/losers win/loss size max drawdown etc.. to get some expectancy on your setup. Ya.. its not fun work, but it will make the difference between profitable and blown out. If you want to trade tops and bottoms like the pros your going to have to cut your losses earlier.... Know when your wrong immediately and get back in when things clear up instead of averaging down everytime because you cant accept being wrong. I try to trade 3-10% drops in the market with 2-3 point stops in the ES because I know that I am not going to catch a top like that with 80% winners. You dont have to do what I ask but I seriously think you should reread this a few times and give it a shot.

btw.... the market correction is soon. I agree with you on a large drop I have just been patient since feb 27th and getting ready to pounce sometime this month.
 
as expected eur/usd shorts fired at 1.3793 and the FX account is now SHORT the pair.

Short YM with drawdown presently---holding.

Short CROX from 48


happy monday, surf

:)
 
oh yeahhh, CROX short performing nicely---aprox 2.50 points thus far, holding--expecting substantial downside on this over hyped bad dog fad.

eur/usd short still looking ok, holding with profits.

still sitting with fat losses with YM shorts----still expect to pull out of this, perhaps with nice profits eventually. holding.....


surf
 
Quote from Mvic:

What most of you don't understand is that surfer is not a typical trader, he is a rarer breed, a true speculator. I empathize with him as I too do not trade in the sense that most here on ET do taking crumbs here and there eking out a living. In speculation (usually not for an income but to add to net worth or tiny portion of one's portfolio taking on high risk to increase over all portfolio annual return by a few points) you have to take outsized risks for outsized gains and your year will be made on very few trades (typically 1-5). Surfs only problem is that he doesn't employ any type of hedge at any time. His timing is actually pretty decent and if he just hedged every now and again he would be up substantially on the year even though he was on the wrong side of the trade. This is the third and last time I will post this advice. Good luck surf.
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thanks vic, well stated.

your point on hedging is very valid, and no i don't hedge. honestly, i have never done it in the minis, and am not familiar with the tactic. how is hedging diffferent than just closing the position and reopening, and doesn't hedging severely limit the upside also? anyone who can add here, please do, i want to learn how to avoid these drawdowns in the future, but still attempt to ride for big gains without severerly limiting them OR paying the substantial vig of trading in and out. thanks!
 
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