W alll respect, this assessment could not have been more wrong. The DJIA is the strongest index of all, and anyone short it looking for a "death spiral" has gotten cremated.
The Surf Report
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W alll respect, this assessment could not have been more wrong. The DJIA is the strongest index of all, and anyone short it looking for a "death spiral" has gotten cremated.
At this time I am not going to point out that the position went from +190 to -150 at this moment, (unless Surf could say Oh I covered at breakeven), but I will share a true story, reminded me Surf's trading:
I am watching Deal or No Deal a few weeks ago. The NYC hero who saved another man's life in the underground was playing. Keep in mind, he is a construction worker making $1200 a week (62K annually) with 3 kids.
So he is pretty lucky and down to 6 cases with an offer of 110K from the banker, the 1 million is still in play. He says: I came with nothing, I have nothing to lose. This is actually not true, because that is 2 years of salary for him. He picks a box, small number in it, the next offer is 210K!
He says, well, I want that million, I feel I am lucky! And so is he, picking another case with a small amount. Now there are only 4 boxes left, the million and 3 very small amounts. The offer is something like 310K!!! That is 5 years salary for the fellow, he could pay for college for all his 3 kids and still have a European vacation, but no, he still thinks he doesn't have anything to lose (I guess he didn't understand that the offer can be lost), so he picks another box! And yes, that is the million, so all he has is 3 very small amount under $100 and he ended up going home with $25. Well, at least that is still more than what he came with.
The moral of the story is obvious, take the profits as long as the profittaking is still good!
At this point we have to ask Surf what is the point of this Journal, because making profits or moneymanagement aren't...
P.S.: I still can edit this post, so let's make it -200...
I am watching Deal or No Deal a few weeks ago. The NYC hero who saved another man's life in the underground was playing. Keep in mind, he is a construction worker making $1200 a week (62K annually) with 3 kids.
So he is pretty lucky and down to 6 cases with an offer of 110K from the banker, the 1 million is still in play. He says: I came with nothing, I have nothing to lose. This is actually not true, because that is 2 years of salary for him. He picks a box, small number in it, the next offer is 210K!
He says, well, I want that million, I feel I am lucky! And so is he, picking another case with a small amount. Now there are only 4 boxes left, the million and 3 very small amounts. The offer is something like 310K!!! That is 5 years salary for the fellow, he could pay for college for all his 3 kids and still have a European vacation, but no, he still thinks he doesn't have anything to lose (I guess he didn't understand that the offer can be lost), so he picks another box! And yes, that is the million, so all he has is 3 very small amount under $100 and he ended up going home with $25. Well, at least that is still more than what he came with.
The moral of the story is obvious, take the profits as long as the profittaking is still good!
At this point we have to ask Surf what is the point of this Journal, because making profits or moneymanagement aren't...
P.S.: I still can edit this post, so let's make it -200...
LMAO, you beat me to it.
Some brothers just don't know when to take the blessing they're being offered, and don't realize the offering isn't always going to be on the table ... oh well. Afterthought - believe me, for every 100k being offered, you can multiply it by 3x for him, because that's what it took him to get.
On this, I have no clue.
Jimmy Jam
Surfuer update: WE are adding here at 13930. 3rd and final scale in. WE are Only 1000 Dow pts out of the money at this point. WE expect the market topping process to continue. WE have a stop on the whole thing at 18,546 basis Dow
If you are looking to cash in on a binary event with uncertain timing you HAVE to utlize some form of hedge or you will get killed. If you think that a severe correction is in the cards the smart play would be to use OTM options with volatility this low. Then hedge against days like this using futures. Today you could have paid for your entire position with your hedge.
Smurfer has blownout on this one. He fought the non existent trend and is now out of business. At one time, Smurf had amazig calls, now what a joke!
dwarf
dwarf
Quote from marketsurfer 04-25-02 :
due to several requests, i will post my daily nasdaq channel levels in this forum and our nasdaq index strategy for the day.
all the best,
surf
Did anybody on ET seriously request surf to do this journal back on 4/25/02? Or maybe you guys were playing a cruel joke on him to encourage the eventual "death spiral"!
At one time, Smurf had quite the following and accurate calls----not sure what happened to him. I read the Smurfer and he was very good up untill last year---- like someone was influencing him or something. Smurf remains to have made the most accurate calls I have seen, too bad. This is it for him, back to the truck.
Dwarf
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