The Surf Report--part 2

Quote from logic_man:

The whole "too late to the party" thing is something I used to worry about when I first started trading. Now, I'm more patient and wait for exact confirmation of a trade entry. A trader can make a great living off just the middle portion of the trends.

I believe that all good trading has a bit of contrarianism in it, but I have found that you have to be very precise in how you define contrarian, otherwise it just becomes a synonym for "subjective".
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I agree.....and also don't worry about the too late to the party thing.

I too have become much more patient and wait for set ups where I believe I have a big edge/advantage and much better risk/reward scenario. Much less than trading than I have done in the past, and much more rewarding at the end of each month.

Like you said..a trader can make a great living and be very successful catching portions of trends and not going for home runs all the time. It's like in baseball...they guys who have the longest careers are the .300 hitters.
 
Quote from logic_man:

There is absolutely nothing outside of price, volatility and time (and I don't mean time of day, as opening range systems) in the markets. The interrelationship between those three things is all you need to trade.

I can get 60% winners, with winners larger than losers, with just those three things and in this thread you can't get past breakeven over 6 months. So, you're clearly doing a lot of extra work with no added value. Or, as others are pointing out, it's more likely that you're SAYING you're doing all of this background analysis, but it's all really just smoke and mirrors and your trading is completely subjective thrill and attention seeking.
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Surf is just seeking attention...anytime it gets quiet in here , he has some huge ALERT ALERT...I'm all in announcement. It's like clockwork.

I too am a boring price/volatility, and time trader. While I do put in my time and test different strategies in the mkts I follow, I keep it somewhat straightforwards.
 
Quote from logic_man:

There is absolutely nothing outside of price, volatility and time (and I don't mean time of day, as opening range systems) in the markets.
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Whoa! Classic noise trader statement. When I read this kind of thing, it makes me realize just how different my analysis is than the average noise trader.

Price and volatility are the effects, not the cause. Saying the above is akin to saying you can learn about the sun by studying sunburn. Sunburn is the effect, not the cause, just like price and volatility is the effect.

Price drivers are money flows and sentiment. I am not talking about typical sentiment measures but rather the sentiment of those who control the money flows. The market is not controlled by the masses or their sentiment (psychology) -- another idiotic TA belief--- but rather the sentiment and moves of the few who control the capital and money flows--- who is this? FIGURE IT OUT. it's not difficult and rather obvious. How is this information is accessed and processed is my edge-- you have been witnessing it in real time, in this journal.

@eprado-- NO, intrade is not a price driver, but rather just another "tell"
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

81.50 appears to be a lower high, but not one high enough to warrant taking a short position.
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Watching price is a flawed method to project future moves, obviously.
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fixed system traders like your price Phy$ics and CCI stuff gets burnt cause price is the effect and the wrong thing to study to project future moves. Charts are extremely deceptive.

THis is why the "fixed system traders" who have been ripping on the surf report never ever ever post a real time journal or even let their fixed systems be evaluated despite promises to the contrary--- they simply wont stand up to real market scrutiny over time.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Whoa! Classic noise trader statement. When I read this kind of thing, it makes me realize just how different my analysis is than the average noise trader.

Price and volatility are the effects, not the cause. Saying the above is akin to saying you can learn about the sun by studying sunburn. Sunburn is the effect, not the cause, just like price and volatility is the effect.

Price drivers are money flows and sentiment. I am not talking about typical sentiment measures but rather the sentiment of those who control the money flows. The market is not controlled by the masses or their sentiment (psychology) -- another idiotic TA belief--- but rather the sentiment and moves of the few who control the capital and money flows--- who is this? FIGURE IT OUT. it's not difficult and rather obvious. How is this information is accessed and processed is my edge-- you have been witnessing it in real time, in this journal.

@eprado-- NO, intrade is not a price driver, but rather just another "tell"
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Money flows and sentiment of the few who control all the capital? And you say this doesn't cause a person to get involved in the noise? Wow.

I know exactly what you are looking at with sentiment and money flows. I traded with a fund manager who had a strategy looking at the numbers you are using for sentiment. In the end he had no edge and the results were very random....scratch at best. The problem with that strategy is while "fundamentally" the analysis is right, the mkt doesn't care, and in the end, price and volume will keep doing what it wants, regardless of what you think the numbers are telling you.

Just curious, you have been basically flat in here (take big losers, catch some decent winners), how can you claim that's an edge.
:confused:
 
Kinda funny. After one of Surf's random wins, he expounds endlessly on why his "years of price study...etc" show this or that. But on the 50% of trades he loses, the comment is usually just "I was wrong".

Just messin' with ya Surfy. If nothing else you're entertainment!

And congrats on the trades! WTG! :D
 
There has been no change in the price drivers. Therefore, we are staying short the Sept ES for now. As I stated, I firmly believe this is the start of the massive downwave that will destroy confidence and eliminate the publics interest in stocks. This is GUARANTEED TO HAPPEN, prior to the next glorious bull market which will dwarf all others--- it will happen!

surf
 
Riding a substantial down wave into the abyss. The price driver system read remains extraordinarly bearish--- major stock funds will start to unwind to save themselves soon, adding to the acceleration on the downside.

Folks, some have waited for this time since 1987--- its here, its now and its guaranteed to happen....

markets anticipate, they dont react, hence the folly of fixed system price chart readers--- its like driving while lookingn in the rear view mirror--no matter how pretty or "exact"your charts are.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Riding a substantial down wave into the abyss. The price driver system read remains extraordinarly bearish--- major stock funds will start to unwind to save themselves soon, adding to the acceleration on the downside.

Folks, some have waited for this time since 1987--- its here, its now and its guaranteed to happen....

markets anticipate, they dont react, hence the folly of fixed system price chart readers--- its like driving while lookingn in the rear view mirror--no matter how pretty or "exact"your charts are.
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time to add 24 cars Short?
 
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