The Surf Report--part 2

Quote from EPrado:

Money flows and sentiment of the few who control all the capital? And you say this doesn't cause a person to get involved in the noise? Wow.

I know exactly what you are looking at with sentiment and money flows. I traded with a fund manager who had a strategy looking at the numbers you are using for sentiment. In the end he had no edge and the results were very random....scratch at best. The problem with that strategy is while "fundamentally" the analysis is right, the mkt doesn't care, and in the end, price and volume will keep doing what it wants, regardless of what you think the numbers are telling you.

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You obviously have a lot of experinence Prado. You may be correct on my source of sentiment numbers-- but my way of interpreting them is different.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

You obviously have a lot of experinence Prado. You may be correct on my source of sentiment numbers-- but my way of interpreting them is different.

surf
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I think things like COT reports are definitely good to look at....but to trade only using them without regard to price action is dangerous. I have seen trades based on them go very wrong initially, then later work out. If the people using them had also used some sort of price action strategy, kept them from getting initially steamrolled, then they would really be onto something.

At the end of the day whatever works for a trader is all that matters.

I think one of the reasons people get really annoyed with you is not that you have some secret strategy that is different than the rest of the trading world....that's cool. It's the fact that you try and trash other methods so often. In my experience, those who do what you are doing...well....they are not succeeding...so they lash out. I think you would almost rather be wrong then them right.

In the end, they could be wrong every day of the year, but does that put money in your account? Absolutely not.....so why bother with trashing other strategies...especially ones that are very successful.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

1 minute to lock this in before it reverses off better than expected adp at 8:15 tomorrow, lower unemployment claims, and another unemployment report that will probably be better than expected friday.
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or we could get the worst reports ever and still rally :cool:
 
Since I will be on vacation and traveling through August, someone else has to run the P/L. At 1250 with this current position open it is:

172 + 46 = 218 pts per unit

If Surf doesn't average down, it is going to be hard to blow this for the whole year....
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

After you have studied the drivers of price for as long as I have, you will understand why any substantial pop has already occured. I don't want to get into the specifics, but suffice to say, markets are anticipatory mechanisms-- hence the folly in price action and other chart type tactics.
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I'd say the head and shoulders formation that is currently in place but not yet confirmed was a pretty good tell.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

With 10 es on, it'd be about this time that I'd suggest employing a trail stop. It's really the best tool you can have if you are unsure of a turning point, and, while I think this is at or near a bottom, it could continue, hence why I suggest the trail stop.

In my pairs models, I've coded 40-60% give back on those, as they achieve the best results. Not getting out too soon, and not having to make a judgment on when the turn will occur.

Surf, you do not have to pretend that you know this with absolute certainty. ES 16807 covered 1285.5, and went long around 1251.
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Speaking of stops, where is your stop on this buy you made late in the day?

OldTrader
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

PP do not use stops, as they immediately trigger a re-entry, but that's just my version.

I guess my strategies are heavily influenced by what I've read about trading. After breaches, there could come more breaches, but more often, lower highs, or higher lows. If you define these quantitatively, you'll always be comfortable in your position because that is how the market works.

The ES trades at the end of the day will be closed when it identifies a lower high, which could come anytime between now and 70 points from now, but not much higher.
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i think you mentioned that your old C2 system blew up. is there the equity curve, discussions, etc. about that system? i am curious what went wrong. maybe you wrote up on that somewhere.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

A head and shoulders is another chart pattern that works because it is signifying a lower high at the right most. Many people may call it that but it is really the lower high that could suggest a decline is possible. It has no predictive value generally because it is not quantified consistently. , I've done it in wealth-lab. I think it's actually a public script with nAny backtest where it is quantified has not been profitable, and, yesegative APR's, though not one I've written.

I'm not one of those people that dismisses every strategy out of hand as unprofitable, or resort to the do it and prove it otherwise it's probably not succesful long term type. (You could say this about any strategy).
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1 - Charting is not about having a "predictive value". It's nothing more than a trading tool or another approach to understanding markets. You wouldn't (or at least you shouldn't) take a position in anticipation of a pattern completing. I don't know what wealth-lab is.

2 - No intended disrespect to you at all. But I don't know you or anything about your trading record at all. Either way, I'm going to give anything that I've seen in charts more credence than any quantifying you've done in wealth lab. If chart patterns are good enough for Peter Brandt and numerous other successful traders they're good enough for me.

Check out Brandt's "Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader". It's a great read.
 
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