The Surf Report--part 2

Quote from ElecEquity:

It's got nothing to do with hindsight bias. They exist in real time. They only matter once they're confirmed...that's when the neckline breaks.

http://peterlbrandt.com/charts-indicate-a-75-decline-in-the-u-s-stock-market-is-possible/ (read the date...this isn't something people just decided to call out ever since the break yesterday)

EDIT: Yes, hindsight is a major killer in trading. It's not an appropriate label in this case. I'm not gonna argue though surf.
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Absolutely untrue. After the "neckline" breaks, there is no greater odds that the move will continue or reverse, after accounting for randomness in the calculation. it's purely curve fitting and hindsight bias that allows such ridiculous claims to be asserted as truth.

The TA guy got lucky, had it moved the other way, a new definition and conclusion would have been asserted. seriously folks, you are not this naive?

surf
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

As the head and shoulders pattern was being suggested as alternative confirmation of a leg down, yes, this idea can be and has been quantified into code.
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confirmation that the move has taken place, how simple can one get?

however, confirmation of a move doesn't mean the move will continue.

How do you quantify into code when there isn't even an accepted definition of head and shoulders?

why look at the results ( price) when one can study the drivers of price?

These noise traders definitions need to be eliminated.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Absolutely untrue. After the "neckline" breaks, there is no greater odds that the move will continue or reverse, after accounting for randomness in the calculation. it's purely curve fitting and hindsight bias that allows such ridiculous claims to be asserted as truth.

The TA guy got lucky, had it moved the other way, a new definition and conclusion would have been asserted. seriously folks, you are not this naive?

surf
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Lol he got lucky! It's one trade...whether it works or not is irrelevant. I guess you're saying he's been lucky for 20+ years. Seriously.

Charting is not predictive. Merely a way to trade. Easy to quantify risk/reward. Not sure what you use to gauge r/r.

Now that the pattern is obvious to the world --- or CNBC...wouldn't be surprised to see it fail.

Thanks Serf.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Holding the shorts here into Thursday with solid profits remaining.

Typical bear market bounce, happens all the time.

best,

surf
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As projected the bounce was short lived and the droppage remains in full effect. Holding 10 ES sept short with about 45 points of profit.

1237 area is major major support on the daily chart for the technicians.

remaining short as no change in price driver system.

surf
 
The fixed system TA guys are likely running scared to the hills in this market--- or getting chopped up as every bounce fails and every signal flops.

I am getting more and more convinced that this is the big one. The major shake out, then bear market for 1 plus years---then completely flat prior to the rebirth of the glorious bull market.

It's unknown at this time what will trigger the biggest and baddest bull of all time--- but it will happen, guaranteed.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

The fixed system TA guys are likely running scared to the hills in this market--- or getting chopped up as every bounce fails and every signal flops.
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Really?....that 2-bottom buy btwn 1230-37 was gold & quite easily anticipated...legging out on the overnite betwn 50-59.50 with zero heat & never underwater.

you need to be less presumptuous & more forthcoming .
 
Quote from Spooz Top:

Really?....that 2-bottom buy btwn 1230-37 was gold & quite easily anticipated...legging out on the overnite betwn 50-59.50 with zero heat & never underwater.

you need to be less presumptuous & more forthcoming .
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Speaking of "forthcoming", did you post a trade anywhere?

OldTrader
 
making a call & trading real capital are two completely different actions.....you may want to read my past post calls & daily P&L for close to 2 yrs....i`ve earned the right to speak my mind as i`ve walked the walk.....have you?

My post was in response to an assuming,presumptuos,contradictary statement from the wizard of oz...........no need to kiss rectum,Old Trader....you are one of the few that don`t seem to see thru the transparent curtain & decipher babble in that the wizard is not big,bold & courageous.......but quite the contrary.
 
<b>Quote from Rodney King:

He posts the day after. 100% winners. </b>

Yeah, just like the other TA gurus on this thread/site. They just don't understand what a before the fact trade call is--- hindsight is 20/20. the chest beating is ridiculous and absurd .

I am still waiting for the king of all fixed system TA 'rs to submit his program for testing.....

surf
 
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