I deleted my post because it was incorrect. The highest what Trump got was 7% at Intrade, which was about right. 40% would have been crazy high and a huge opportunity to make easy money....
Edit: I have to correct myself again. I was looking at the wrong chart. I was right the first time and the highest was actually 65%:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=742129&z=1294931209000#
The 7% was the winning the presidency.
Anyhow, 65% of Intrade thinking that Trump would actually run just shows that you can't always rely on groupthink/Intrade, sometimes you just have to use common sense....
Edit: I have to correct myself again. I was looking at the wrong chart. I was right the first time and the highest was actually 65%:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=742129&z=1294931209000#
The 7% was the winning the presidency.
Anyhow, 65% of Intrade thinking that Trump would actually run just shows that you can't always rely on groupthink/Intrade, sometimes you just have to use common sense....
