Yeah, we're at nasty places all around...bad price levels from a technical standpoint, increased political risks, historically sky high earnings expectations (seriously, look at the S&P p/e chart over it's life), and all this going into earnings season. I wish the S&P made a move through 2450 rather than stalling at it.
The Super Terrific Happy Hour
- Thread starter Max E.
- Start date
2 Trades today on JPM, I came in too this with a short side Bias unfortunately, but when i saw the puke bar right out the gates on the open, with big volume, then a big green bar back, and it tries to get back down and the bids just started absorbing and grinding it up, it was pretty obvious it was going to snap back through 92 dollars and stop out all the chasers.
Unfortunately i let my Bias get the best of me i took off my long for a 30 tick winner then even tried shorting it once when it looked like it was breaking down, there was really no reason to be short this thing other than my own bias, the chart clearly said it was going up, and it was holding trend so long as it stayed over 91.20.
Once again i missed a sweet curl too, because i was short side biased on it, but banks just werent breaking down.
Unfortunately i let my Bias get the best of me i took off my long for a 30 tick winner then even tried shorting it once when it looked like it was breaking down, there was really no reason to be short this thing other than my own bias, the chart clearly said it was going up, and it was holding trend so long as it stayed over 91.20.
Once again i missed a sweet curl too, because i was short side biased on it, but banks just werent breaking down.
Here is what i was talking about with the curl move on JPM, had to remove my entries to mark the chart up, but you can see how it holds up at 91.30 so its established a base there, then it sticks a higher low, then it starts curling through the top that is an A+++ setup, i should have taken it but i came in way too bias on the banks, but C, WFC, BAC, all of them had bounced at that point, once you see it grinding through the highs like that its a good spot to load up with relatively low risk. I called it out in our room, JPM is going here at like 91.60.
Ive been hesitant to take that shit lately cause afternoon just turns into chop so much, but that is basically a bread and butter set up after the open. If i had a long Bias going in i would have crushed that.
Ive been hesitant to take that shit lately cause afternoon just turns into chop so much, but that is basically a bread and butter set up after the open. If i had a long Bias going in i would have crushed that.
If you look at NRG from a couple days ago its exactly the same kind of curl, its hard to take these in a chioppy market, but in a market thats moving where theres a little more action ill hammer these things all day, im just leary to take much of anything past 11:00 anymore cause the R:R just isnt there right now, like JPM only gave 50 cents in a hot market with volume could have been a buck or two.
So at which time (candlestick) would you have pushed the buy button in this particular case? 10:49?
I noticed it low .60's would have been nibbling there, then adding as it confirmed to probably low to mid .70's, then would have taken atleast a quarter off on the 92 dollar snap to make the trade pay for itself, most likely would have cut it in half then you have a free trade, move the stop to breakeven on the rest
But you can see what JPM is doing now (91.68) and thats why i dont take those in this market, i would have been stoppped out on half of it. Just no follow through in the afternoon most of the time anymore.
If that were me, I'd be in at the top of the first long green bar, and out at the top of the second (where the edge of his drawn on bracket ends)...on the volume for both. Though, I may have been stopped out on the hammer.
And these bulls keep charging 2453, and the bears stand their ground and call the bluff...
Pretty text book bull triangle on ES, just no fucking range in it so not worth the time, its frustrating as hell.
Also if you look at JPM and NRG its a similar concept, the algos just keep grinding it up and grinding it up until it gets to the break point where it has to go, its just algos absorbing everything they can get until they inally have to break the top.
The ES chart is alot easier to represent with simple T/A, but NRG and JPM were more of a curl into the top, but all that is is bids absorbing and slow moving it higher until it eventually has to go through the top its got no other choice if buyers want more.
Also if you look at JPM and NRG its a similar concept, the algos just keep grinding it up and grinding it up until it gets to the break point where it has to go, its just algos absorbing everything they can get until they inally have to break the top.
The ES chart is alot easier to represent with simple T/A, but NRG and JPM were more of a curl into the top, but all that is is bids absorbing and slow moving it higher until it eventually has to go through the top its got no other choice if buyers want more.
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Frustrating market, here is my comment from 9:52 this morning in our chat, lol this market is a bitch. 
Dan-Today at 9:52 AM
Starting to feel like the ES could really fuck shorts today, if we get some momentum through 2450 on a friday it should be good for a 10-15 point move
but it will probably depend on whether the banks hold up
Dan-Today at 9:52 AM
Starting to feel like the ES could really fuck shorts today, if we get some momentum through 2450 on a friday it should be good for a 10-15 point move
but it will probably depend on whether the banks hold up