The Super Terrific Happy Hour

[beerntrading]

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I love that pattern! I call it a Fuji doji (look at the smooth symmetrical sides of the price and volume peaks)...nowhere near as strong as the 4/28 one at 150, but super reliable for an early confirmation at an expected resistance level.

Edit: strongly supported by covered call interest / volume. No surprises here if this closes at exactly 160 (+/- 0.01)

 

[Max E.]

I love that pattern! I call it a Fuji doji (look at the smooth symmetrical sides of the price and volume peaks)...nowhere near as strong as the 4/28 one at 150, but super reliable for an early confirmation at an expected resistance level.

Edit: strongly supported by covered call interest / volume. No surprises here if this closes at exactly 160 (+/- 0.01)

You love shorting into that? like shorting the breakout? I realised it was a subpar long setup, but didnt realise its also a good short setup lol.

Anyway you could chop the chart up and explain what you mean?

(Id be curious to learn how i could avoid that in future, although i never should have been there to begin with)

 

[beerntrading]

Wow, that FB 7/21 160-162.50 put credit spread for .95 is such a no brainer. 5 calls for every put in the open interest, 50% max return. I'd be in that I a heartbeat if I were at home where I could keep my finger on its pulse.

Fully 1% of float to cover on expiration, and another 0.5 - .75 should be opened in the coming week.

 

[Max E.]

Monster day today guys, lol.

In all seriousness sometimes i got to accept that 250-500 bucks is a good day in this kind of environment, cause too many times im willing to just bleed that off when i can make that much on just about any open if i focus enough.

I took 2 other gamble trades that other guys called out, needless to say it didnt work. I cant list them here cause i dont feel its right to call out other peoples trades unless its on something thats totally liquid.

I have a bad tendency to start pissing away money on days like this where the market is choppy, need to get over it, was up 250 on JPM early then watched a bunch of ideas i had go by all day then gopt sucked into garbage out of sheer boredom.

I lost 6 bucks today, does anyone know the name of a bank, think im going to have to take a mortgage out on my house if i keep having losers like this.

 

[Max E.]

Wow, that FB 7/21 160-162.50 put credit spread for .95 is such a no brainer. 5 calls for every put in the open interest, 50% max return. I'd be in that I a heartbeat if I were at home where I could keep my finger on its pulse.

Fully 1% of float to cover on expiration, and another 0.5 - .75 should be opened in the coming week.

LOL, beerntrading You are speaking like a totally different language than me, its just funny cause we both look at the market completely differently.

 

[beerntrading]

You love shorting into that? like shorting the breakout? I realised it was a subpar long setup, but didnt realise its also a good short setup lol.

Anyway you could chop the chart up and explain what you mean?

(Id be curious to learn how i could avoid that in future, although i never should have been there to begin with)

It's not a short entry (last post notwithstanding, lol) per se, it will just exert a large pressure towards S/R on the price. There's the psychological effect of the nice round numbers as a decision pivot, and that's reinforced by institutional risk management of covered call exposure (search "sticky strikes" on the forum, someone posted a good example explaining this).

You spot the expected S/R level in options chains, the more 0 digits (and the 5 in front of the 0s), the stronger it's likely to be. Unbalanced call activity supports bullish outlook...it will then gap to that price, hold resistance (the bottom of the candle's trail), trade the day in a narrow range (the densely populated plains around Fuji), begging a smooth upwards move on increasing volume, and descend the other side of the mountain at the same angle and symmetrical decreasing volume (our beautiful Mt Fuji). That's the classic noob buy at the top, and it forms the top of the doji. The rest of the day is a casual walk at resistance to close at resistance.

The covered call thing is why most of FAANG stalled at $150, and oddly simultaneously.

 

[Max E.]

Es is about to give it the friday afternoon special and squeeze the fuck out of the shorts into the weekend, DONT CHASE IT UP HERE, but its going to do it, mostly cause i passed on going long early, but also its pretty reliable.

Expensive shorts dont like holding over the weekend, any move through 58 and this thing goes vertical quickly.

 

[Max E.]

It's not a short entry (last post notwithstanding, lol) per se, it will just exert a large pressure towards S/R on the price. There's the psychological effect of the nice round numbers as a decision pivot, and that's reinforced by institutional risk management of covered call exposure (search "sticky strikes" on the forum, someone posted a good example explaining this).

You spot the expected S/R level in options chains, the more 0 digits (and the 5 in front of the 0s), the stronger it's likely to be. Unbalanced call activity supports bullish outlook...it will then gap to that price, hold resistance (the bottom of the candle's trail), trade the day in a narrow range (the densely populated plains around Fuji), begging a smooth upwards move on increasing volume, and descend the other side of the mountain at the same angle and symmetrical decreasing volume (our beautiful Mt Fuji). That's the classic noob buy at the top, and it forms the top of the doji. The rest of the day is a casual walk at resistance to close at resistance.

The covered call thing is why most of FAANG stalled at $150, and oddly simultaneously.

Do you have some kind of software for analysing options, and options expectancy? I fully believe in the concept, but ive always just kind of kept it simple, and done what im used to doing, its rare i take options trades, ill take other peoples option trades, if i agree with them on the stock, but other than that i dont watch them much.

But some of the best taders i know are very good at analysing options, thats just never been my gig, id like to learn more cause you can always add more tools, but im also always leary about changing up too much, cause alot of times in trading especially early on i had a tendency to switch to whatever the new biggest and shiniest tool was, bottom line in trading you just need to stick to what works for YOU.

But id definitely like to add more options knowledge to it.

 

[beerntrading]

...oh, as far as practical advice for avoiding it, look at the call / put open interest for the next monthly expiration and the one after. Relatively high interest and a put / call imbalance means that market makers must move huge amounts of shares to hedge, and exerts a massive pressure to center on these prices. Friday's are particularly strong here due to expiry.

 

[beerntrading]

Do you have some kind of software for analysing options, and options expectancy? I fully believe in the concept, but ive always just kind of kept it simple, and done what im used to doing, its rare i take options trades, ill take other peoples option trades, if i agree with them on the stock, but other than that i dont watch them much.

But some of the best taders i know are very good at analysing options, thats just never been my gig, id like to learn more cause you can always add more tools, but im also always leary about changing up too much, cause alot of times in trading especially early on i had a tendency to switch to whatever the new biggest and shiniest tool was, bottom line in trading you just need to stick to what works for YOU.

But id definitely like to add more options knowledge to it.

Nope, just an eagle eye for options chains and an unreasonable reliance on volume in general (which translates to open interest). I only watch about 50 stocks since I need a lot of liquidity, so it's not hard for me to spot, especially if I have an open position on it.

I was well aware of FB to watch at 160 because I made my investment holding a collar at 154.50 over 150-160 for a credit...so three imbalance was obvious even opening that position. This is strong through January on this one right now.