The Super Terrific Happy Hour

Very tempting to add to NUGT short here at 35.50 mostly im just holding this so i have a harmless position whereby it brings my average price up if i want to short gold later if it cracks, but if gold goes up on the fed decision, i stop out harmlessly for a 20 tick loser MAX with slippage.
 
tt.texantrader said:
I'm confused about this here. Are you saying your guys in chat make shit loads more than you? Or that 90% of them aren't even making money? I find that at ET, lots of guys talk as if they are hot shit, but we really, we have no access to their trade stats. Its perhaps not even all that important to see how much money they are making, but what are their win rates, and average wins vs. average losses. Most of stats I've seen center around the 1:2 ratio. For every $2 made, $1 is lost. Heck, even if you look up the stats of Lescor, you will see that for a profit of roughly 800k per year net, he lost about 400k. (those are very rough numbers from the back of my head, but its all in his journals if anyone wants to look it up). Anyway, so before going further, I'm curious about what exactly it is that you are saying about the guys in chat, and what stats they have.


Did you ever consider that there might not be much to read? Each time I read your journal, I can't help but think that you are working too hard. You say you don't know how to read an exit, but in my opinion, if the trade you're putting on is a swing trade hoping to capture many dollars, then there is no exit. If it goes far enough into profit, of course moving a stop to BE makes sense, but then, it seems like it should either hit target or be stopped out. I mean if you really want to capture bigger moves, you cannot be analyzing each twist and turn along the way.

The thing though is that you want to, which means you will never be a swing trader. (nothing wrong with that of course). Its obvious that after your entry, price will either reach some far off target eventually, or it will come right back to your entry and stop you out. But if you keep analyzing the route it takes to get there, you're getting in its way.


Why wait till next week? Analyze all the trades you have posted in this journal and see what the outcome would be. See where the price is an hour or 90 minutes after entry, and figure out if holding all trades like this makes you more profitable. You will of course have some bigger wins, like those trades you showed today, but then you will also have a smaller win rate, with some of the trades where you took an early profit turning right around and coming back to entry for a BE trade, or even perhaps hitting the stop.

My guess is that you will see its better to take early profits and just look for the next trade, especially since you say that you are very good at finding precise entries.

I base everything I say on the fact that sometimes, looking for more info contained within the price action is a case of diminishing returns. Some trades will be home runs no matter how ugly it looks along the way and some won't. Sometimes all you can do is get into the trade, throw caution to the wind, and let it either get there or stop you out. If you're really good at seeing every twist and turn, then you almost have to be trading every twist and turn, which gets you away from holding for an hour in my opinion.
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"For every $2 made, $1 is lost."..isn't this a pretty good expectancy if you have a 50-50 win loss ratio ???

Expectancy ratio would be:
$2 x.50 - $1x.50 = +.50 correct ?
 
So ive had nothing to do all day but twiddle my thumbs and think about this fed decision, probably atleast 8 out of 10 times the fed decision turns into a big up day. But i honestly think this time is different. In my head im thinking, who in their right mind, with money behind them is going to get wildly bullish because the fed raises rates today? I mean what case can you make for being bullish on that? We may drift up today based on the decision, but i think its hollow, i think this is the top, i will trade accordingly, but im cautious cause all fed decisions get spun as bullish.

But I cant see what kind of a nutjob would look at whats going on in the U.S., the U.K., and Europe, and say:

"oh well the only thing we needed was a rate increase to keep this thing going."
 
It just seems totally irrational, not that i havent seen the market go up irrationally after fed moves, but this time it seems like youd have to be insane. Like what billionaire out there is sitting with his finger on the buy button right now cause everything in the world just seems fantastic?

Rates increasing, Trump tax cuts are D.O.A. healthcare reform seems the same way, they are talking about impeachment in the MSM, Europe is debating whether Britain can even trade with them, oil is cracking.....FANG fell apart last couple days..... i just dont understand how smart money could be wildly bullish here if the fed raises rates.

I cant see it, if it happens today and we rally big I will eat my note pad, it just doesnt make sense for there to be a big fed rally here.
 
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If im wrong, and there is tons of reasons to be bullish here, please provide the counter argument id love to hear the reasons you should be bullish after this rate increase.
 
Kachingo Baby!!

Just exited.... took my 100 shares i had short on NUGT at 35.87 for a buck!!!!

Drinks on me today guys!!!!

Amazing how easy that is when you put on 100 shares and just dont give a fuck. :D

nugt-png.174567


Max E. said:
LOL, shorted 100 shares of NUGT on the logic, of course if Rates go up, Gold must go down, but the market doesnt necessarily react that way, but of course, since i only shorted 100 shares of NUGT for something to do, it turns in too a home run, lol story of my life.

Im taking these shares to the bank baby, 3 dollars or bust. Break even or 10k. :D




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Max E. said:
Nice eye on that top Chuck, i know that 9 out of 10 times whatever the fed says it gets spun as bullish, but i think this time it might be different, longs are looking for a bailout now, no one with money and size is looking to buy even more at this level, i think we melt down after the fed, but thats just my guess, it could go either way thats why i dont trade going into too it.
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Sigh...wish I'd seen this before I dumped my SPX spread. Or maybe not...

Every time I see this thread, I think to myself it makes day trading look so easy. It takes a lot of convincing myself that I really do still suck at price action--ideally, I convince myself of this with words. The dollars are a much faster and much more compelling argument, but my wallet is heavier if I prevail with words.

I do take solace in the fact that my exits of all my positions today look good even a few hours later...hedge positions notwithstanding.
 
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