The Super Terrific Happy Hour

I dont want to talk about Lescors numbers, thats for him to talk about, but i think your low on your estimate, all i can say about him is he is one of the finest human beings you will ever meet.

When it comes to nailing the market, what i mean is that guys like him, or anyone else who is a legendary trader put in massive days when the market puts in special moves, i need to get better at that, better at realising when its a special opportunity, thats all i can really say about that. Like even today i made like 2400 on the ES but i had 8 contracts average of 2438 at one point but i took four off before the puke, that would have been an extra 1500 if i wasnt so anxious to cut exposure on a big position.

But i was absolutely positive what was going to happen today, it doesnt happen often but i called the price action to the tee on the ES, a few hours before it happened...... it tried spiking, then there was just no buyers to sustain it, i literally emailed my old man saying i think the market will push up off the fed news, then puke cause of no real buyers.

I should have made alot more money on this trade i feel like, its very rare when the price action becomes that predictable especially on the ES.

tt.texantrader said:
I still want to read about the stats, not what nailing it means. You say they nail the market, does this mean that 80% of their trades are big winners? Does this mean that perhaps they have to enter a few time and scratch a few times before they nail the big winner? If you add up all those scratches, perhaps they don't have anywhere close to an 80% win. They may be better at holder longer than you, and they may be more able to immediately re-enter again after either getting stopped out, or exiting too soon, but I still highly doubt that they have a crystal ball and that practically every trade they touch is a huge winner. Also, although I have no idea how it works in your chat, perhaps they don't mention every time they scratch, or scale in, or scale out, etc. There are so many nuances here, and its those nuances that make the huge difference.
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beerntrading said:
$150 is a dangerous price to play with FB...very strong S/R. Lots of candlestick tails going above and below it, but not a lot of candles through it.

What's your target?
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Yeah beentrading, i agree with you on this one, it seems like every time facebook gets below 150, it grinds back up into that level and gets over top, it leads me to believe that there is a size buyer wanting in below 150, and the algos are arbing it up to the price.

If the market melts down tomorrow obviously FB will go, but there is better ways to place that trade, hell if your with IB, you can short an ES contract for 3k, instead of 100 shares costing 15k. Plus more than likely you will make more on the 1 es contract short vs the 100 FB short. Bottom line, market either holds and grinds higher tomorrow in which case FB goes up, or market tries to puke again in which case FB goes down, but i dont think there is any edge in FB vs what the market is doing, its not weaker than the market, its not stronger than the market, FB IS THE MARKET right now.
 
Max E. said:
Yeah beentrading, i agree with you on this one, it seems like every time facebook gets below 150, it grinds back up into that level and gets over top, it leads me to believe that there is a size buyer wanting in below 150, and the algos are arbing it up to the price.

If the market melts down tomorrow obviously FB will go, but there is better ways to place that trade, hell if your with IB, you can short an ES contract for 3k, instead of 100 shares costing 15k. Plus more than likely you will make more on the 1 es contract short vs the 100 FB short. Bottom line, market either holds and grinds higher tomorrow in which case FB goes up, or market tries to puke again in which case FB goes down, but i dont think there is any edge in FB vs what the market is doing, its not weaker than the market, its not stronger than the market, FB IS THE MARKET right now.
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https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/fb.309051/

That entire thread tells the story of FB's $150 S/R...starting on day 1. ;)
 
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