The Shorting of Frauds, Overhyped and Bankrupt Stocks Journal

ABAX - -50 1 44.0560 -2,202.80 43.2900 -2,164.50 38.30 2.66
ADNC - -200 1 13.64855 -2,729.71 12.9500 -2,590.00 139.71 3.18
AWC - -500 1 4.5836 -2,291.80 4.7900 -2,395.00 -103.20 2.94
BANR - -10 1 29.959474 -299.59 31.2600 -312.60 -13.01 0.38
BC - -1 1 36.1500 -36.15 35.2100 -35.21 0.94 0.04
BLV - -25 1 94.0240 -2,350.60 90.9710 -2,274.28 76.32 2.79
BOND - -5 1 108.6201 -543.10 109.3100 -546.55 -3.45 0.67
BTH - -150 1 21.826667 -3,274.00 16.8500 -2,527.50 746.50 3.11
BVSN - -300 1 9.281008 -2,784.30 8.5800 -2,574.00 210.30 3.16
BXS - -5 1 14.250995 -71.25 15.7800 -78.90 -7.65 0.10
CARB - -1 1 9.019899 -9.02 10.4300 -10.43 -1.41 0.01
CBM - -10 1 10.9830 -109.83 12.3700 -123.70 -13.87 0.15
CFFN - -10 1 11.669899 -116.70 12.0400 -120.40 -3.70 0.15
CHY - -1 1 12.2200 -12.22 12.7300 -12.73 -0.51 0.02
CLI - -5 1 25.8604 -129.30 28.5000 -142.50 -13.20 0.18
CSC - -1 1 39.6500 -39.65 49.8500 -49.85 -10.20 0.06
CVGI - -300 1 10.2640 -3,079.20 8.2800 -2,484.00 595.20 3.05
D - -1 1 55.8300 -55.83 55.8700 -55.87 -0.04 0.07
DATE - -500 1 6.0210 -3,010.50 5.2600 -2,630.00 380.50 3.23
DSM - -50 1 9.2501 -462.50 9.3700 -468.50 -6.00 0.58
EC - -50 1 57.471592 -2,873.58 56.0100 -2,800.50 73.08 3.44
EMN - -1 1 68.6200 -68.62 72.0200 -72.02 -3.40 0.09
END - -400 1 8.4812 -3,392.48 3.7000 -1,480.00 1,912.48 1.82
ETH - -100 1 27.892475 -2,789.25 28.1300 -2,813.00 -23.75 3.46
EVR - -2 1 36.5150 -73.03 43.1600 -86.32 -13.29 0.11
FAX - -400 1 7.76875 -3,107.50 7.7600 -3,104.00 3.50 3.81
FMBI - -100 1 12.4900 -1,249.00 12.8100 -1,281.00 -32.00 1.57
FN - -15 1 14.946667 -224.20 16.8100 -252.15 -27.95 0.31
FRME - -5 1 14.593778 -72.97 15.2500 -76.25 -3.28 0.09
GTY - -25 1 20.2920 -507.30 21.7200 -543.00 -35.70 0.67
HSIC - -10 1 89.1900 -891.90 89.3000 -893.00 -1.10 1.10
HTLD - -200 1 14.3950 -2,879.00 13.6000 -2,720.00 159.00 3.34
IDIX - -500 1 5.16303 -2,581.52 4.5700 -2,285.00 296.52 2.81
IMO - -50 1 43.4180 -2,170.90 42.3900 -2,119.50 51.40 2.60
JCP - -125 1 25.30168 -3,162.71 14.8200 -1,852.50 1,310.21 2.28
JNY - -50 1 11.3401 -567.00 11.8500 -592.50 -25.50 0.73
JOE - -100 1 21.9320 -2,193.20 21.1100 -2,111.00 82.20 2.59
LTD - -50 1 50.890356 -2,544.52 44.8700 -2,243.50 301.02 2.76
MBI - -1 1 10.206667 -10.21 12.8100 -12.81 -2.60 0.02
MOVE - -1 1 9.2000 -9.20 10.3100 -10.31 -1.11 0.01
MXL - -1 1 5.109592 -5.11 6.2700 -6.27 -1.16 0.01
NEON - -50 1 4.0200 -201.00 5.4200 -271.00 -70.00 0.33
NG - -500 1 6.943504 -3,471.75 3.9100 -1,955.00 1,516.75 2.40
NI - -5 1 25.2140 -126.07 28.0300 -140.15 -14.08 0.17
NTRI - -300 1 9.339489 -2,801.85 8.4500 -2,535.00 266.85 3.12
NWN - -50 1 45.7160 -2,285.80 44.0100 -2,200.50 85.30 2.70
NYT - -1 1 8.2300 -8.23 9.6300 -9.63 -1.40 0.01
PETM - -25 1 61.8600 -1,546.50 62.1800 -1,554.50 -8.00 1.91
PNY - -1 1 30.747778 -30.75 33.0800 -33.08 -2.33 0.04
QLIK - -100 1 26.70875 -2,670.88 27.2100 -2,721.00 -50.12 3.34
RF - -25 1 7.569899 -189.25 8.2200 -205.50 -16.25 0.25
SAAS - -400 1 7.0525 -2,821.00 7.0600 -2,824.00 -3.00 3.47
SCSS - -125 1 21.9908 -2,748.85 17.3700 -2,171.25 577.60 2.67
SGYP - -400 1 6.0600 -2,424.00 5.9690 -2,387.60 36.40 2.93
SNCR - -1 1 21.3000 -21.30 31.0300 -31.03 -9.73 0.04
SPH - -1 1 40.8300 -40.83 42.0000 -42.00 -1.17 0.05
STAA - -500 1 6.52868 -3,264.34 5.6800 -2,840.00 424.34 3.49
TEG - -10 1 55.096867 -550.97 56.0900 -560.90 -9.93 0.69
TRN - -1 1 39.0300 -39.03 43.7900 -43.79 -4.76 0.05
TRS - -100 1 28.5743 -2,857.43 29.1200 -2,912.00 -54.57 3.58
VRTX - -60 1 49.267157 -2,956.03 50.1700 -3,010.20 -54.17 3.70
WABC - -25 1 43.9300 -1,098.25 45.2700 -1,131.75 -33.50 1.39
WERN - -100 1 24.4800 -2,448.00 23.0200 -2,302.00 146.00 2.83
WMGI - -7 1 24.196188 -169.37 23.7900 -166.53 2.84 0.20
WMGIZ - -30 1 2.3200 -69.60 2.7000 -81.00 -11.40 0.10
Z - -1 1 31.0300 -31.03 49.6800 -49.68 -18.65 0.06
ZION - -5 1 21.3040 -106.52 25.2600 -126.30 -19.78 0.16
ZIP - -10 1 12.1700 -121.70 12.2400 -122.40 -0.70 0.15
 
Quote from Chuck Krug:


Z - -1 1 31.0300 -31.03 49.6800 -49.68
More...

I got hurt on Z. First I shorted in the 40s and covered in the 20s, then I reshorted in the 20s thinking it would drop some more. It went all the way back up to 40s
The lesson to me is to never short momentum high flyers unless you just KNOW they are going to miss earnings. No matter what the bad news is the stock tends to come back if the earnings growth is still there. Z will collapse in the long-term but I rather wait for the first earnings miss/bad guidance
 
MLNX is a good example, when it missed and had bad guidance it went from 100 to 80s/70s I believe, it popped back to 90s outside regular trading hours.
There was plenty of time to short as it became clear the tide was turning. There are a ton of big funds that need to liquidate anyway, we have an advantage of having smaller accounts and getting in first. The news algos/day traders don't fully adjust for the miss and guidance cut because they like quick profits and thus will rally the stock when it drops too much to fast, they give up profits to have a better sharpe ratio

MLNX is now at $54

I will play Z using this idea
 
Quote from Chuck Krug:

ABAX - -50 1 44.0560 -2,202.80 43.2900 -2,164.50 38.30 2.66

ZIP - -10 1 12.1700 -121.70 12.2400 -122.40 -0.70 0.15
More...

Thanks for the update Chuck Krug.

If it's not too much trouble, could you please provide the headings for this data? I'm sure I can guess some (or even most) of them, but if you could copy and paste the headings here I would be most appreciative.
 
Quote from Daal:

I got hurt on Z. First I shorted in the 40s and covered in the 20s, then I reshorted in the 20s thinking it would drop some more. It went all the way back up to 40s
The lesson to me is to never short momentum high flyers unless you just KNOW they are going to miss earnings. No matter what the bad news is the stock tends to come back if the earnings growth is still there. Z will collapse in the long-term but I rather wait for the first earnings miss/bad guidance
More...

Interesting feedback Daal - thanks for your thoughts.

I am short AMZN, even though it's reaction to its most recent quarter was mixed (and not overwhelmingly negative). Paulo Santos at Seeking Alpha has written a lot about the company, and I agree with most of what he has written. The good thing about shorting AMZN versus other high flyers is that with a 123 billion market cap, it's unlikely to double in the months to come.

Whereas something like Z or UNXL could easily double given the right conditions.
 
Short ideas:

High flyers
AMZN CRM NFLX LNKD
WDAY N

(WDAY has a lockup expiring on 10 April)

Debt problems:
NBG JCP SHCAY MCP CZR RSH KWK NIHD AKS ACI STSI STP

(STP has a convertible bond due Friday 15 March trading below 50.)
 
"If we needed more proof that Google (GOOG) has stolen Apple's mojo, according to a report by Citigroup, the Mountain View search giant has recently surpassed Apple to become the most-owned stock by the 50 biggest actively managed U.S. mutual funds."

GOOG setting to a similar play AAPL had in the short side. When it looks broken technically I will start shorting it. Valuations are also much higher than AAPL so its going to take longer for value guys to step in. The stock is likely to go lower than even I will think. Crowded momentum trade, some of these guys will need to liquidate when the trend breaks
 
Quote from Daal:

I got hurt on Z. First I shorted in the 40s and covered in the 20s, then I reshorted in the 20s thinking it would drop some more. It went all the way back up to 40s
The lesson to me is to never short momentum high flyers unless you just KNOW they are going to miss earnings. No matter what the bad news is the stock tends to come back if the earnings growth is still there. Z will collapse in the long-term but I rather wait for the first earnings miss/bad guidance
More...

two questions (i'm seriously not being critical or trying to start an internet fight i'm curious b/c i employ a similar strategy of shorting broken momentum stocks).

1. how do you "know" a stock will miss earnings? and even if you did the stock can still rally after that?

2. re Z, do you use stops like when it rebounded all the way back up to 40?
 
you're playing with fire. I mean you're assuming that every other market participant out there is a complete moron. not a good thesis IMO.
your 2 sources are muddy waters and zero hedge LMFAO.

Quote from Daal:

In this journal I would like to discuss, share and construct trade ideas revolving stocks that are likely to
-Go to $0 for a variety of reasons(Assuming this will be a big move)
-Be delisted from main US exchanges
-Have enforcement action taken by the SEC or another regulatory agency that is likely to tank the stock
-File for bankruptcy

Currently 2 stocks that I'm short(through Oct and Sep puts) are FMCN and FSIN. These 2 are chinese frauds that are highly likely to be delisted within 1 year. The question is whether I was correct in constructing my trade through puts and whether I will have the patience to keep rolling over them. So far these stocks are defying gravity. Jim Chanos is short FMCN.

Here are the reports that lead me to put the trades on
FMCN
http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/fmcn/initiating-coverage-fmcn/
FSIN
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/muddy...hi-copperweld-fsin-represents-high-risk-fraud

Please post ideas that meet the criteria I set, overvalued/momentum stocks do not meet that criteria. FB, AMZN, etc they might be overvalued but are pretty darn unlikely to tank to the extend that stocks I want to focus on are likely to
More...
 
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