I think that you are on the right track, and the best way to play this market is not try and call a top, like most of the so-called "top-pickers" on this site, but instead to watch your moving averages, fib retracements, and use stops, befriending the trend.
First of all, interest rates have been coming down pretty hard here, despite the CONSENSUS that has been looking for them to increase, along with the Economy this year. In fact, the 10-year note has declined from a yield of 4.40% just two weeks ago to 3.97% as of today; this is yet another great support for the equity market.
Secondly, the Dollar looks like it is trying to BOTTOM here and that could really bring the Euros into our Equity Markets, big time, giving us the next push up in the S&P. Anyone take a look at the BP or Swissy the last couple of days?
Meanwhile, the commodity complex ( aside from the grains ) looks like it may have just put in a top as well. Gold and Silver have puked the last couple of days, along with most metals stocks, and the Natural Gas chart put in such a nasty double-top that it crashed 10% in one day, today, and looks to have had the worst weekly decline in history, even though the Northeast is totally frigid.
While some of the "top-pickers" on this board have sounded like BROKEN CLOCKS, chiming away every 25 handles, starting at 1050, the professionals are much more tuned-into the fibonacci's, which as you know call for much higher numbers. A fifty-percent retracement of the decline from the S&P highs of 2000 doesn't come into play until 1160 or so, and the 61.8% number doesn't even come in to play until 1253. Even the biggest Gloom & Doomers like Bob Prechter admit that some of these Wave 2 retracements can go to a .786 fib retracement. That would give us the 1380 area.
Sure, we could have a "correction" at any time and it might be sharp and short. But unless we drop back below 1115 on a Daily basis and 1102 on a Weekly basis, I'm willing to buy dips.
First of all, interest rates have been coming down pretty hard here, despite the CONSENSUS that has been looking for them to increase, along with the Economy this year. In fact, the 10-year note has declined from a yield of 4.40% just two weeks ago to 3.97% as of today; this is yet another great support for the equity market.
Secondly, the Dollar looks like it is trying to BOTTOM here and that could really bring the Euros into our Equity Markets, big time, giving us the next push up in the S&P. Anyone take a look at the BP or Swissy the last couple of days?
Meanwhile, the commodity complex ( aside from the grains ) looks like it may have just put in a top as well. Gold and Silver have puked the last couple of days, along with most metals stocks, and the Natural Gas chart put in such a nasty double-top that it crashed 10% in one day, today, and looks to have had the worst weekly decline in history, even though the Northeast is totally frigid.
While some of the "top-pickers" on this board have sounded like BROKEN CLOCKS, chiming away every 25 handles, starting at 1050, the professionals are much more tuned-into the fibonacci's, which as you know call for much higher numbers. A fifty-percent retracement of the decline from the S&P highs of 2000 doesn't come into play until 1160 or so, and the 61.8% number doesn't even come in to play until 1253. Even the biggest Gloom & Doomers like Bob Prechter admit that some of these Wave 2 retracements can go to a .786 fib retracement. That would give us the 1380 area.
Sure, we could have a "correction" at any time and it might be sharp and short. But unless we drop back below 1115 on a Daily basis and 1102 on a Weekly basis, I'm willing to buy dips.
