The S&P is looking very toppy

Quote from waggie945:

Quote from James Stock:

"Look at that! The S&P 1140 calls are expiring worthless.


Wrong again, James!

The S&P Futures Options do not expire until tomorrow, the 3rd Friday of the Contract Month, unless you are in the March cycle.

The CME says that the Jan. 1140 Calls closed at .90 today.
See for yourself:

http://www.cme.com/dta/del/delayed_...uctFoiType=OOF&ProductVenue=R&ProductType=idx
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Now are you guys talking about futures or cash options ? I thought JS talked about cash ... these did expire now.
 
Quote from Jeffo:

I've taken out a second mortgage and maxed the credit cards. I hope you're right.
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If I am really, really right the Dow and SP are going to make marginal new highs this yr..like 1625 and 12500....

I keep keying off 1970-72..only time in last 30 years you had deep bear , (3 down yrs in row) then election cycle and war, low rates etc and good gold..so far so good, on that front avg gain in election is 44% for 42 yrs....for 2 yrs up to election...

If in fact this is 1987, then you might be buried! ;gain was 6% into 1988

Last time you had good stocks, low ylds, weak buck; and decent gold was 1987..or 1970-72..that rally was worth 55%..bare min.

So that gets you min 1180-90 (post 9/11 highs) to 1260..depending on intraday low or close..and if all hell breaks loose.... new highs..latter is not likely, former is..

I called for 1145 on 6/03/03 ..and got laughed off the site..so be careful...and good luck

Best bud,
david
 
Quote from TheCaracal:

Glad you are prospering...but fighting an electoral agenda after a 3 year Bear is not right...see may 1970-72...call a top in 2005 for heavens sake...glad you are so nimble!

Good luck,
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If I wasn't nimble, I would have had my head handed to me long ago.

You see which way i'm tilted, and I survived the nasdaq 85% runup of 1999. I have to be nimble! I actually made money in 1999!
 
Quote from Pabst:

Hey James!

Could you discuss what looks toppy?
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This is a tough call Pabst because, AFAIC, most have ruined it for themselves on this board, and don't deserve my insights.

But you do, so I will say this. The odds favor it happening soon (>50%), some because of excessive sentiment. We retraced about 1/2 the 700 point S&P drop around this level. Volatility has to pick up soon. It's earnings season. And there's real politics to be done this year. And rates aren't going lower. That's a few.

Good luck. I thought you were a lukewarm bear?
 
Quote from James Stock:

If I wasn't nimble, I would have had my head handed to me long ago.

You see which way i'm tilted, and I survived the nasdaq 85% runup of 1999. I have to be nimble! I actually made money in 1999!
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Sounds good to me!

keep it up

Best,
david
 
Quote from waggie945:

Quote from James Stock:

"Look at that! The S&P 1140 calls are expiring worthless.


Wrong again, James!

The S&P Futures Options do not expire until tomorrow, the 3rd Friday of the Contract Month, unless you are in the March cycle.

The CME says that the Jan. 1140 Calls closed at .90 today.
More...

Really??

Please forigve nolan-vinny-sam, he did not take his lithium this evening. Therefore, he doesn't understand the difference between the word "expiring" and "expired". They closed at .90?!? O.K. I've got 1,000 @ .90 for sale!

repeat: I've got 1,000 @ .90 for sale! Heck I got 1,000 @ .50 for sale? Any takers? If the price closed @ .90, why am I offering @ .50?
 
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