The bulls are suddenly quiet.
So who says my top call will still be wrong now ?
I liked it from the get-go. Well done.
The S&P has topped
- Thread starter volente_00
- Start date
I liked it from the get-go. Well done.
The bulls are suddenly quiet.
So who says my top call will still be wrong now ?
I do not favor the irrational exuberance we've been seeing, but I don't think that it's over by a long shot. [I'm guessing that half of the post-election US market climb is based on re-regulation, and half on tax restructuring.] I think that half of the climb is in danger.
What we have now is not any sort of lack of retail mania, but institutions reacting to the somehow-Black-Swan-ish realization that placing US tax reform *after* (intractable) health care finance reform, is pure idiocy. (That was a *lot* of *very controlled* selling yesterday.)
If Congress "makes nice" (which I don't foresee), we're popping right back up, and with a squeeze on the shorts, we're topping 2400. If they fail (my guess), we're due another 2%-3% drop, depending on how the news is delivered. If there's a kiss of Kumbai-ah, the drop is less; if there's a continuation of the [decade-long] uber-partisan animosity, then regulatory gains are also in danger, and "Look out, below!" We're heading to the bottom of a longer-term channel.
So, if your "top call" was based on a salient read of an entirely fragile underlying environment??? Then your next pint is on me. For sure.
https://flat12.me/on-tap/half-cycle
Last edited:
You sound so much like an investor...not a trader.
You sound so much like an investor...not a trader.
I think swing trading is where it is at. You put on a trade and exit a few days if not weeks later. Less commissions and worries. Oh yeah and more beach time!!!
I agree "the beach" is where it's at!
Really? Why should markets care?
Agree with him....this vote will be key...if they vote it down wallstreet will sell off because this will show that as much as Trump wants to pass new bills it might be more of a process and headache as originally proposed
"If they call for a vote early, that means they think they've got the votes and that's why you'll see a little bit of a rally going into it," Cashin said on "Squawk on the Street."
"If they decide to postpone and not vote either tonight or whatever, [there'll] be a mild sell-off because people say the votes still remain questionable. If they vote and have it voted down, there will be a more substantial sell-off," he said.
Cashin added if the House passes the vote, there will be a rally.
"If they call for a vote early, that means they think they've got the votes and that's why you'll see a little bit of a rally going into it," Cashin said on "Squawk on the Street."
"If they decide to postpone and not vote either tonight or whatever, [there'll] be a mild sell-off because people say the votes still remain questionable. If they vote and have it voted down, there will be a more substantial sell-off," he said.
Cashin added if the House passes the vote, there will be a rally.
The markets will care, as you can see even Cashin mentioned something about it just moments ago