The S&P has topped

The S&P has topped

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Buy1Sell2 said:
Staying long here.---ES that is.
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You could have just got out when I said and got back in 10+ points lower. That is still 10 points extra, if you are convinced about the bull.

Now the SPX is forming a dragon. 1st top was at 2400, 2nd top at 2390, Height is 55 points and the Failure might have occurred at 2377 yesterday. (so this line should hold for the dragon to play out)

If it does play out, the target is 2377 + 55 = 2432 on the SPX.

I like the Failure happening a bit closer to the SMA line which was 2372, so there is a chance that we bounce from there but the price shouldn't go below the SMA line for the dragon to be in play...
 
Here it is the possible formation on the SPX, I draw the line down to the SMA line for the Failure not where it actually happened. It still can happen today down there and then we would rally early next week.

Now someone might say, hey shouldn't there be a double top there? The futures went 8 pts higher after the Fed rally on the 15th, so it was actually a much nicer doubletop it just doesn't show up on the daily chart...
 

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Pekelo said:
You could have just got out when I said and got back in 10+ points lower. That is still 10 points extra, if you are convinced about the bull.
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I ain't that smart. Sometimes I trade a Kramer Frutes type of strategy and it fails me.
 
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Pekelo said:
You could have just got out when I said and got back in 10+ points lower. That is still 10 points extra, if you are convinced about the bull.

Now the SPX is forming a dragon. 1st top was at 2400, 2nd top at 2390, Height is 55 points and the Failure might have occurred at 2377 yesterday. (so this line should hold for the dragon to play out)

If it does play out, the target is 2377 + 55 = 2432 on the SPX.

I like the Failure happening a bit closer to the SMA line which was 2372, so there is a chance that we bounce from there but the price shouldn't go below the SMA line for the dragon to be in play...
More...
Your high prediction is similar to the hoot owl's on page 1. If your prediction comes to fruition will it cause friction with you and the technician that began the exhibition? --Or will it result in interdiction?
 
Everything I have seen so far today has greatly emboldened my view that we go higher from here. What would really be great is if we could close over 2382 in ES today.
 
tommcginnis said:
I sold above the market yesterday, between 1400hrs and 1500hrs. {"Yipes! But the vol! The vol!"}
and, with vol falling today, feel like I'm staring into another short squeeze over the next week.{"But the market is red, dude. That's 'down.'"}

So, I've got a bunch of vintage stuff on the bottom, and am looking to buy it back and move those capital slots up, while cutting the top-side exposure in half. Going to be a busy day.

Net, my rough window would be going from
2400-->2330 (70pts)
to maybe
2415-->2350 (65pts, but shorter-lived)

I wish I felt like we were getting a stronger move. My exposure right now is low, but it's too close. But I hate writing without having a tide on which to float.
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"Phew!!"
Avoided a short squeeze on top, AND managed to 'not sell' on the bottom.

And with vol climbing ("8.7???" Nooooo! 12.77 in the VXST, and an inverted 12.31 in the VIX!!) it's time to get busy on the bottom at least, if not on top, too.

Hoo boy.

Well, I wished for a tide, and here it is.......

But now, what is my window?!?
Today's sell-off seems way too 'in control' with well-worked volumes every 15 minutes. And the fact that we started right at 9:30am, with no big precipitating move (outside of the rush of air leaking out of Good Ship Drumpfenberg and the over-anticipated tax re-structuring).... I'm thinking this could die off entirely at 11:45 (read: "Euro-close"), only to pick up again at tomorrow's cash open. "Fool me once,....."

But the VXST has hit 13.34 now: time to write!
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Everything I have seen so far today has greatly emboldened my view that we go higher from here.
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Well, we did go higher at least on the NDX but I guess I was right to tell you to get the hell out of long on the 15th....
 
tommcginnis said:
Well, I wished for a tide, and here it is.......

I'm thinking this could die off entirely at 11:45 (read: "Euro-close"), only to pick up again at tomorrow's cash open. "Fool me once,....."
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"The parrrrr-ty's ooooooov-errrrrrrr...."

(Sez the TRIN.....)

Oh, well. Maybe I'll get lunch.
 
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