So in other words, it sounds like what you are saying was you made a little bit of money, but that money was spent in order to open lots of other positions in order to prevent losses down the road? My options knowledge is very limited, but if you can take what will be a loss and somehow turn it around, then this is some good alchemy! At any rate, it does sound like what you are saying was that your call about the rise to 2397 didn't materialize.. is this correct? Also, was this for SPX or ES?
The S&P has topped
- Thread starter volente_00
- Start date
What I'm saying is, if I expected a dollar, I netted 67¢, AND continued that margin exposure for another expiry, at least.
SPX or ES? At this point, it's immaterial. (Hmmmm. "But in general..." But in general, it's in the SPX, which means I had a very busy Friday. (Or was it Thursday? Dunno.)
2397 didn't materialize? No. Not in this time/space tuple.
Take a loss and turn it around (to be) alchemy? Nah. Just rolling some instruments. No matter what, it's accepting one position, re-covering that margin capital, and then re-deploying that margin capital in some other, hopefully theta-rich, environment. It's still, as Kansas used to sing it, your Assssss in the Winnnnnnnd.
BUT, you do have the opportunity to split things up. If you take a |0.40| short delta position, and split it up, you can monitor nicely both your relative risk and your revenue-neutrality {of the roll}, but aiming your summed *new* short deltas to be about what the old one was. Thus, if you take two new positions (on top at 0.25, and on bottom at ~-0.20), you can expect about the same in new received premium as what was paid out to buy out the 0.40.
But ANY new spread is a new hanging of your ass in the wind.
SPX or ES? At this point, it's immaterial. (Hmmmm. "But in general..." But in general, it's in the SPX, which means I had a very busy Friday. (Or was it Thursday? Dunno.)
2397 didn't materialize? No. Not in this time/space tuple.
Take a loss and turn it around (to be) alchemy? Nah. Just rolling some instruments. No matter what, it's accepting one position, re-covering that margin capital, and then re-deploying that margin capital in some other, hopefully theta-rich, environment. It's still, as Kansas used to sing it, your Assssss in the Winnnnnnnd.
BUT, you do have the opportunity to split things up. If you take a |0.40| short delta position, and split it up, you can monitor nicely both your relative risk and your revenue-neutrality {of the roll}, but aiming your summed *new* short deltas to be about what the old one was. Thus, if you take two new positions (on top at 0.25, and on bottom at ~-0.20), you can expect about the same in new received premium as what was paid out to buy out the 0.40.
But ANY new spread is a new hanging of your ass in the wind.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-s-p-has-topped.307293/page-7#post-4417228
I'm just an idiot who shorted march 240 spy calls yesterday that dropped 50% today
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-s-p-has-topped.307293/page-11#post-4417922
All of this is way above my head. All I was trying to determine was that when you made this post:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-s-p-has-topped.307293/page-6#post-4417187
this is what the chart of SPX looked like, and where you said we would head, and what ended up happening. Obviously your call was wrong on both counts, and whatever you did with your trading is secondary to your call. Just wanting to follow up your call as I think its important to do. Trading is all about collecting stats after all.
So many haters and doubters in here. Perhaps they forgot about my gold top prediction in 2011 in the face of a 500% run up
And then although it was not 2012 but 5 months later in 2013 it did reach my lower target ending the 12 year bull market
http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
And then although it was not 2012 but 5 months later in 2013 it did reach my lower target ending the 12 year bull market
http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
If you think it has topped why don't you buy some puts instead?
Maverick,
Give him a break..he is spot on. I know you love to decry (despite being here 24/7 posting) how hysterical ET is, some people may actually be solid.
Vol, good luck..I have been short ES and short vol for the last 100 points...more than the sv has been able to offset so I'm with u, lol.
Couple of things:
1. So many people taking this thread so hysterically. It is a prediction, TIME WILL TELL. Just wait and see, instead of arguing about it.
2. I agree with Vol, but probably we will put another top in. I am guessing mid March (so let's say next week) and down we go.
3. Nobody mentioned politics, but if the BS finally starts to stick to Donnie, the market gets spooked and takes a dive. That can happen any day now...
4. Huge gaps eventually get filled and I counted 4 gaps left behind in the last months. As a minimum this last one from 2365 SPX will be closed in 2 weeks...
1. So many people taking this thread so hysterically. It is a prediction, TIME WILL TELL. Just wait and see, instead of arguing about it.
2. I agree with Vol, but probably we will put another top in. I am guessing mid March (so let's say next week) and down we go.
3. Nobody mentioned politics, but if the BS finally starts to stick to Donnie, the market gets spooked and takes a dive. That can happen any day now...
4. Huge gaps eventually get filled and I counted 4 gaps left behind in the last months. As a minimum this last one from 2365 SPX will be closed in 2 weeks...
I am sorry to see your personal issues on such display. But it's not my fault.
Apparently you missed the second half of that post you cite. Go read it. Study it. There's a lot of wisdom there. And the follow-up.
At any event, the greater point you miss, while you're trying to create a tempest in the teapot, is that THIS IS ALL A JOKE. No one here is glued (or should be glued) to any particular number. OR ELSE they go broke.
"Obviously your call was wrong on both counts, and whatever you did with your trading is secondary to your call." Your words. You's goin' broke. I'm sorry about that.
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