An observation from me, a self made peasant trader, one who just tills the field of my hobby 'trading field' day in day out....
1/. Re SPX/SP500, if you look at a 5 year chart, log scale, there is no doubt price is running up very hard, more so than usually.
2/. The more pessimistic and shorted the market becomes, the more likely a continuation upward.
3/. Price gapped up the 1st March and under normal circumstances from my experience a gap up on a hard running position will get filled by a retracement in the very short term, eg 1 week.
4/. I'm seeing lots of conflicting signals in the Mkt, very difficult to know, but my experience tells me SPX will continue up failing a black swan event, however in short term it may close that recent gap.
5/. Currently very little volatility, therefore not indicating a top.
6/. The fundamentalists say apparently valuations are becoming expensive.
7/. As time goes on, traders/investors/algos/dumb and smart money get cleverer, more cunning, more educated re trading, therefore to outsmart the Mkt, the old rules re what to expect may no longer apply.
8/. The harder this runs the greater chance of a spectacular correction, I was thinking a few weeks back a soft landing was in order, but not so sure about that now.
Conclussion, if you put a gun to my head and said "what will it be", I'd be going long and rate that about 90% probability over the coming week to weeks Black Swan event excluded.
1/. Re SPX/SP500, if you look at a 5 year chart, log scale, there is no doubt price is running up very hard, more so than usually.
2/. The more pessimistic and shorted the market becomes, the more likely a continuation upward.
3/. Price gapped up the 1st March and under normal circumstances from my experience a gap up on a hard running position will get filled by a retracement in the very short term, eg 1 week.
4/. I'm seeing lots of conflicting signals in the Mkt, very difficult to know, but my experience tells me SPX will continue up failing a black swan event, however in short term it may close that recent gap.
5/. Currently very little volatility, therefore not indicating a top.
6/. The fundamentalists say apparently valuations are becoming expensive.
7/. As time goes on, traders/investors/algos/dumb and smart money get cleverer, more cunning, more educated re trading, therefore to outsmart the Mkt, the old rules re what to expect may no longer apply.
8/. The harder this runs the greater chance of a spectacular correction, I was thinking a few weeks back a soft landing was in order, but not so sure about that now.
Conclussion, if you put a gun to my head and said "what will it be", I'd be going long and rate that about 90% probability over the coming week to weeks Black Swan event excluded.
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