The S&P has topped
- Thread starter volente_00
- Start date
240 spy calls down 35% already
Every trade I put on is a reflection of me calling a top or bottom whether it be for 1 minute or 1 month. Why would you want to chase price in a mean reversion instrument such as ES or SPY? That is a fools game unless you are trying to long term trend invest.
I'm just messing with you. Appreciate you input. Although I am stubborn I'm still humble enough to always listen to others opinions. One never knows when a learning opportunity may present itself.
idk about the s&p but the Nasdaq looks ready to slide
looks like a typical wave 5 blow off top, retailers usually buy it up and get left bagholding
it's a buy the rumor sell the news type of turn out
And I think this is a matter of your sensationalist thread title, semantics and time perspective. It's a disconnect between the sensational macro thread title against the OP's micro expectations in terms of trade profit targeting. That's my opinion, YMMV.
In terms of the spread trade trading ranges, we're looking to take a hell of a lot more than 1% of the historic trading range (more like 30-50%). And we're chasing price using instrument combinations that model far greater mean reversion tendencies than flat price S&P. Again, considerable irony.
It's mean reverting but the timescale could be a long time. Take the bull run of 2013, it stayed well above the 50MA for the entire year as it kept climbing. It only reverted back to the mean at the end of 2014.
But your point is right though. I think every trader tries to pick a top and a bottom on whatever time scale or price range.
Not really. There are plenty of traders who are opportunists trading order flow and price action. There's a population of manual traders, swing traders and algos who will identify liquidity takers and race them. That's actually the central tenet of among others tape reading, Momentum and Market Profile trading systems.
Let me give you an example - an ES day trader monitoring his order book price ladder sees two successive offers get taken out very quickly. The third offer starts to trade out and in the blink of an eye our opportunist buys a 10 lot. Our opportunist quickly offers a 5lot 2 tics above his entry price and another 5lot 3 tics above. That type of trading is quite common and I don't think that those types of traders are necessarily looking to pick a top or bottom per se.
It's a matter of perspective. One frame of mind is standing in the middle of the railroad tracks and telling the train to stop because it's gone far enough, and the other frame of mind is to hitch a ride on the train and hopefully get off as the train is slowing down. Both approaches are risky. It all depends upon how you choose to take on risk.
It's probably BS. That's why I didn't position myself for that move yesterday either. But have been tracking it for more than a month and that trend has been working for a few months now with the market pretty much hugging the trend. Consolidate the same range. Move up the same range. Pull backs the same range.
Anyway, will see if its trend is broken soon. It expects a move that measures basically 250 on the S&P in today's prices within the next 5 trading sessions. Today is supposed to end moderately up too after a dip (yes in spite of it being down a lot as of time of writing this) based on that historical action.
250 is an interesting number because it is right at the top of that bullish channel range that goes back to 2009 if it were to hit the channel right around now. But it is 5% up from here though. Seems almost impossible. However, I would have said the essentially vertical climb to 2400 in recent weeks was impossible too.