The S&P has topped

[volente_00]

Ya know, to "call a top" is a MACRO trading term - which means you short 2400, set your stop at 2800, and target 1500 like a proper big swinging dick.

If you're making this monster MACRO call, and starting a thread entitled "The S&P has topped" - I question the strength of your conviction if we're presently trading at 2395.96 and per your original post you consider yourself wrong at 2426 and right at 2331. If you're going to talk macro then grow a pair. You can't literally "call a top" and then target a very recent trading range as your proof positive of your proclaimed macro clairvoyance.

Attacking the messenger is all you have instead of logic and reason to convince me to change my mind ?



Risk is 26 points
Downside targets are
2333
2203
2112

 

[volente_00]

I did some armchair quarterback noob quant analysis a few weeks ago, and I didn't believe it myself, but I saw the 2400 move earlier pretty much to the day that I did not position for because I didn't actually believe myself it was possible and yet here we are today. Almost perfect trend correlation at r=~0.7.

And since I am now taking my analysis more seriously, based on that analysis, it would not surprise me if this goes to around 2500 first as the final blow off top move within a week from now before topping out and correcting back to 2350, consolidating there for a while and maybe move further lower.

That analysis extrapolated further also suggests a sell off for the entire year after that.

My target had always been 2150 as fair value. Essentially where the market was during inauguration.

If someone bearish must find themselves short at 2400, I'd burn some premium on long calls.

Pass me some of that good stuff you're smoking

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I did some armchair quarterback noob quant analysis a few weeks ago, and I didn't believe it myself, but I saw the 2400 move earlier pretty much to the day

FALSE

 

[beefcaketrade]

Pass me some of that good stuff you're smoking

....

Whatever. Everyone's just sharing ideas. Nobody knows what markets do anyway.

In any case, I think it's possible (not saying likely) for 2500 within the next 6 trading sessions. That will be top. Then the following 6 drops back to 2360ish right in time for FOMC. Then drag lower for the rest of the year.

This is just based on the trend correlation analysis. The correlation coefficient was around ~0.7. Based on that trend, it had a gap move on exactly this date too. Might just be fluke.

I personally still cannot even fathom 2400 let alone 2500 based off a worse case. I think fair value is 2150 or lower. For a bull run based on nothing of substance is irrational. The market should reset to 2150 so self proclaimed 'mark to market' policies can prove themselves "mark to market".

 

[W.J. Feathermaker III]

Volente has made some very good calls (checked some of them in the archives). A lot of this bickering arises over what defines a "top". Bone makes good points obviously, but I don't believe Volente is waiting for a pullback down to 2000 to take off the trade. "Macro" it's been a bull market forever, who wants to debate that. At this time a year ago, we were on the brink and yet here we are 600 S&P points higher. Then again, who could have held during the 335 pt drawdown in the S&P from May 2015-Feb 2016?

If Volente sells it at 2400, covers 70 pts lower...good trade...what else really matters here?

 

[tommcginnis]

The breakout projection from 2016 is 2410 SPX. Current channel sets a touch of 2200 on a pullback. The writing is on the wall.
...
I'm all ears and would love to here your reasoning on why we go a lot higher besides the argument of trendline.

I've got a pint that says we cross 2500 before we cross 2200. Do I think that makes sense? No. I'd rather see us at a 15 pe-ttm. But if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. What non-charty reasoning leads me there? Inflation (negligible), and earnings growth (material).

I think most of the rise is over. I think 2400 is an early Christmas. And I'd be a lot looser in long positions were the pe something I didn't have to justify with an asterisk about negligible inflation and material growth in (expected-to-actual) earnings.

But, as me dear ol' Mum used t'say, "Thomas, if you wish in one hand and piss in the other, guess which one gets filled first."

Thanks, Mom. That find up-bringing gave me a two-aphorism post.

 

[beefcaketrade]

And on the technical side, it kinda 'looks' like it really wants to reach and test the top of the longer trend channel that goes back to 2009 to now as a catch up. That channel also happen to coincide with around 2500 level.

 

[bone]

I can't think of a more painful, capital burning, unnecessary trading strategy than calling tops or bottoms to a market whose price action and momentum hasn't shown itself agreeable to one's personal inclinations and hubris.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

I can't think of a more painful, capital burning, unnecessary trading strategy than calling tops or bottoms to a market whose price action and momentum hasn't shown itself agreeable to one's personal inclinations and hubris.

Disagree completely.. Iv`e read a lot of criticism here regarding the inferiority of trying to catch tops & bottoms. Entry always defines the RR of any trade regardless, that said, there is nothing wrong with trying to catch the "Turn". As long as your RR parameters are in place & emotional stability sound, These are trades that can double & triple account size as long as it`s managed correctly.

Trading/speculation is an intimate process that has to agree with ones personality type, unequivocally. To assume someone is burning capital and not "trading correctly" because they are implementing particularly inferior style is comical.

J.L was notorious for trying to catch turns... he felt that offered him the greatest reward with minimum risk... He could be wrong 25 straight times but would crush it on his 26th attempt.. his RR parameters were in place.

 

[volente_00]

Volente has made some very good calls (checked some of them in the archives). A lot of this bickering arises over what defines a "top". Bone makes good points obviously, but I don't believe Volente is waiting for a pullback down to 2000 to take off the trade. "Macro" it's been a bull market forever, who wants to debate that. At this time a year ago, we were on the brink and yet here we are 600 S&P points higher. Then again, who could have held during the 335 pt drawdown in the S&P from May 2015-Feb 2016?

If Volente sells it at 2400, covers 70 pts lower...good trade...what else really matters here?

Have you talked to rubberbird, thorn or ghost lately ?