And if my aunt had a dick she would be my uncle
Market was telling me top at 2400. 10 point drop in ES so far is confirming my analysis. After Friday if spx has not breached 2426 then the odds swing more in favor of top being in.
The S&P has topped
- Thread starter volente_00
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And if my aunt had a dick she would be my uncle
Market was telling me top at 2400. 10 point drop in ES so far is confirming my analysis. After Friday if spx has not breached 2426 then the odds swing more in favor of top being in.
If a 4/10 of 1% retracement confirms a top then yes your Aunt has a dick. If you bought every 2% retracement since 2009 you'd be golden.
Put up a long term bar chart from 2008, draw a properly correct trend line, and then realize that taking out 2400 still does not reverse this trend by any means. It will take sustained time and volume with a series of lower lows and lower highs below 2000 before the current trend is in jeopardy.
Uncle Buffett's trading rule: "buy fear, sell greed".
Probably, Mr. Trump is not going to pull it off (the wall, and Obamacare. Obamacare gets a lot of support from governors.
Probably, Mr. Trump is not going to pull it off (the wall, and Obamacare. Obamacare gets a lot of support from governors.
Your prediction is premature; You should always wait for a healthy, noticeable pullback
Never try to call a top or bottom...while being presently there,
This same logic generally applies to all time horizons -- from day trading to investing,
But don't just simply stare at charts like a brain dead zombie...you have to have logic and reasoning and Flexibility and foresight while doing so,
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Ya know, to "call a top" is a MACRO trading term - which means you short 2400, set your stop at 2800, and target 1500 like a proper big swinging dick.
The breakout projection from 2016 is 2410 SPX. Current channel sets a touch of 2200 on a pullback. The writing is on the wall. 8 years of bull market, fed finally tightening up the cheap money and a loose cannon in the white house whose party always seems to create an economic downturn during their first 4 years. Not to mention personal debt is also at an all time high since 2008 and boomers who are approaching mid 60's are going to migrate to less risk averse investments as they leave the workforce. I'm all ears and would love to here your reasoning on why we go a lot higher besides the argument of trendline.
If you're making this monster MACRO call, and starting a thread entitled "The S&P has topped" - I question the strength of your conviction if we're presently trading at 2395.96 and per your original post you consider yourself wrong at 2426 and right at 2331. If you're going to talk macro then grow a pair. You can't literally "call a top" and then target a very recent trading range as your proof positive of your proclaimed macro clairvoyance.
I did some armchair quarterback noob quant analysis a few weeks ago, and I didn't believe it myself, but I saw the 2400 move earlier pretty much to the day that I did not position for because I didn't actually believe myself it was possible and yet here we are today. Almost perfect trend correlation at r=~0.7.
And since I am now taking my analysis more seriously, based on that analysis, it would not surprise me if this goes to around 2500 first as the final blow off top move within a week from now before topping out and correcting back to 2350, consolidating there for a while and maybe move further lower.
That analysis extrapolated further also suggests a sell off for the entire year after that.
My target had always been 2150 as fair value. Essentially where the market was during inauguration.
If someone bearish must find themselves short at 2400, I'd burn some premium on long calls.
And since I am now taking my analysis more seriously, based on that analysis, it would not surprise me if this goes to around 2500 first as the final blow off top move within a week from now before topping out and correcting back to 2350, consolidating there for a while and maybe move further lower.
That analysis extrapolated further also suggests a sell off for the entire year after that.
My target had always been 2150 as fair value. Essentially where the market was during inauguration.
If someone bearish must find themselves short at 2400, I'd burn some premium on long calls.