So I see you're like Elon Musk, only without his brain. You just like to talk.
He's not even an engineer. He hires people to realize his ideas.
The Renaissance Technologies model has been resolved.
- Thread starter LargeTrader
- Start date
He's not even an engineer. He hires people to realize his ideas.
I posted you a real life example that shows EW fib predicting the drop to 16k over a year prior back when price had just reached ATH's. AND don't try to say this is hindsight because the fibonacci levels were measurable back in Nov2021...it required no charting. Go ahead and use the same tool now that we have bottomed to show what price level the 1.618 (impulse) wave reaches.
Yes they are acting all smarmy, but I think they are throwing everyone a red herring, because they may have started out with a math based methodology, but in the end they just settled on simple pattern recognition combined with low fees and high frequency. Basically find a pattern, and then compare it with 100 other similar patterns and then extrapolate from that what anomalies were present in the outliers. This is similar to what Tudor did combined with EW, except with more data. I was surprised Tudor shared their technique...I think they said they regretted it and tried to have it removed from the documentary. Anyway all of this is baked into EW so you can save yourself all the quants.
So in summary, the market is in a state of determinism, and if you want to make money you just have to align yourself with that pre-determined outcome. The market is not affected by the news or earnings reports or fundamentals etc. as those will only facilitate the already pre-determined outcome. I think Simon or someone giving a lecture said they used fractals and ignored all news and earnings reports.
Case in point. In NOV2021 The extension wave for bitcoin was showing its 1.618 fib could take it down to 13-16k. This was forecastable in Nov2021 when we were just at ath's! This was more than a year prior to the FTX scandal that eventually became the icing on the cake for that capitulation. I'm sure other news aligned to facilitate the already pre-determined decline along the way.
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Total hindsight,and what on earth does Elliot Wave and Fibs have to do with Ren-Tech??
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It's not hindsight lol...it's foresight. Fib levels don't change based on the chart. It's same reason how I knew Bitcoin would rally to 60k plus early 2024 back in Nov. You can check my posts.
Here! Proof that I did the same thing during the lows. Semperfrosty knew where it was going.
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Yup total hindsight re EW and Fibs!
You know why?
Because if it wasn't hindsight, a trader would be loading up their positions before the fact due to outright confidence.
But they don't because like RSI, MA's and every other TA indicator under the sun, they all can have partial merit, slight probability, maybe slightly better than random sometimes, but when you add slippage and fees and running costs, there is a profit or loss which is not worth the effort.
It's not hindsight lol...it's foresight. Fib levels don't change based on the chart. It's same reason how I knew Bitcoin would rally to 60k plus early 2024 back in Nov. You can check my posts.
Here! Proof that I did the same thing during the lows. Semperfrosty knew where it was going.
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And here I was,trying to stay out of it!
Dragged in unwillingly by the ghost of October 2nd!
WX, I personally know 2 extremely successful guys who employ Elliot wave,and several guys who are really great traders who apply Stage analysis.
One of the Elliot Wave guys you have already mentioned.
Elliot Wave is as predictive as flipping a coin,and that's on a good day,yet one of the traders is one of the most successful in the world.
You are trading a sub 25k account,and its painfully obvious as to why....
Talk/brag less,listen more
One of the Elliot Wave guys you have already mentioned.
Elliot Wave is as predictive as flipping a coin,and that's on a good day,yet one of the traders is one of the most successful in the world.
You are trading a sub 25k account,and its painfully obvious as to why....
Talk/brag less,listen more
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he meant to write re in essence. Which he probably some cheap perfume he wears.
I just showed you that EW is not flipping a coin. Here I'll do you a solid. Run the fib extension tool from the swing low to the swing high, there are actually two so you can get some confluence. Now YOU can forecast the next 2 price targets and even the time frame. No charting required whatsoever.
btw I'm testing on sub 25k account. I actually don't need much more though to create the income I'm looking for. A good trader shouldn't need a huge account for decent returns. Those reddit guys are trading with a 10M account...their actual rate of return is pretty average.
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