The Renaissance Technologies model has been resolved.

[ironchef]

A few months ago, I managed to identify a strong determinism in price formation, leading to a 70% advantage. After some time, I attributed this footprint to major liquidity providers. Therefore, understanding their modus operandi allows for predictability windows. The challenging part was engineering a profitable strategy. Eventually, I succeeded using probability theory, proving that it's possible to profit from financial markets. In my previous post (https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/delirium.378771/), which I encourage you to review, I discussed key market players, the extreme difficulty, and some findings regarding the problem. However, I hadn't definitively resolved the model used by major independent LPs. Initially, I thought of something "physiologically deterministic" attributed to chaos theory, but in reality, it's determinism caused by liquidity providers. Thus, I had to delve into the extensive field of probability theory. Ultimately, the model attributable to RenTec or TGS has been resolved, and I've decided to propose a live demonstration on two financial instruments: crude oil commodities and the S&P 500 stock index.

The model has not yet reached the state of the art, but for now, it is sufficient to demonstrate that consistent profits can be made without incurring significant losses. The demonstration is expected to begin on Monday with the opening of the European markets and will conclude with the closure of the American markets. I still need to decide how to share the demonstration, but it will likely be on Twitch.

Why not here?

I am rooting for you.

 

[schizo]

I am rooting for you.

Usually, a bold statement like this never ends well. I wish him well all the same.

 

[ironchef]

Usually, a bold statement like this never ends well. I wish him well all the same.

I am a student always look for new ideas and new thinkings.

I like out of the box thinking.

 

[poopy]

They have it. Basically linear regression with pattern recognition and Kelly criterion.

The above is utter garbage.

Watch this (or anything from numberphile or sixty symbols):

 

[poopy]

The above is utter garbage.

Watch this (or anything from numberphile or sixty symbols):

The origin of RenTech: 26:00 in.

 

[wxytrader]

The above is utter garbage.

Watch this (or anything from numberphile or sixty symbols):

That's just an interview but nothing about the trading strategy other than he was not the one behind the bulk of the math.

 

[Businessman]

Watch this (or anything from numberphile or sixty symbols):

A watched that a few years ago. From memory all Simons says is 'We use Statistics and Machine learning' he doesnt give much away. And its not inconsistent with the previous video posted by wxytrader on this thread.

 

[Maverick2608]

RT never shared anything. Can you think of a reason?

 

[Laissez Faire]

RT never shared anything. Can you think of a reason?

David E. Shaw of D.E. Shaw would in a Market Wizards interview not even share what they did not use as it could provide an advantage to his competitors by not allocating research resources towards a dead end.

 

[wxytrader]

A watched that a few years ago. From memory all Simons says is 'We use Statistics and Machine learning' he doesnt give much away. And its not inconsistent with the previous video posted by wxytrader on this thread.

Yes they are acting all smarmy, but I think they are throwing everyone a red herring, because they may have started out with a math based methodology, but in the end they just settled on simple pattern recognition combined with low fees and high frequency. Basically find a pattern, and then compare it with 100 other similar patterns and then extrapolate from that what anomalies were present in the outliers. This is similar to what Tudor did combined with EW, except with more data. I was surprised Tudor shared their technique...I think they said they regretted it and tried to have it removed from the documentary. Anyway all of this is baked into EW so you can save yourself all the quants.

So in summary, the market is in a state of determinism, and if you want to make money you just have to align yourself with that pre-determined outcome. The market is not affected by the news or earnings reports or fundamentals etc. as those will only facilitate the already pre-determined outcome. I think Simon or someone giving a lecture said they used fractals and ignored all news and earnings reports.

Case in point. In NOV2021 The extension wave for bitcoin was showing its 1.618 fib could take it down to 13-16k. This was forecastable in Nov2021 when we were just at ath's! This was more than a year prior to the FTX scandal that eventually became the icing on the cake for that capitulation. I'm sure other news aligned to facilitate the already pre-determined decline along the way.