You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
The real Unemployment rate in the United States.
- Thread starter SouthAmerica
- Start date
The problem is not there aren't any jobs it's just that they are not desirable jobs. The workforce is very competitive. I lost a relatively fair paying job because it was not desirable to me. If I wanted to do it I could. I would not recommend anyone with a family do what I did but I'm not a family man so I looked for other opportunities.
If I wanted to work I could it just isn't very desirable to work in the US as some other countries but it's better than most. Location is also a big factor. Jobs in the US are very isolated to territory. A person looking for a tech job will have an easier time finding a job in the silicon valley and a person looking for a business job will have an easier time finding a job in Manhattan. If I were desperate for a job it wouldn't take me much time to get one.
When I was young I studied electronics and programming. I wanted to be a robotics tech so I had to know both. I got lazy though and wanted to just be a programmer. But there's not a lot of programming jobs that are good on the west coast so I would have to relocate to somewhere in the east. However if i wanted to go into electronics the silicon valley would be the place to stay. It's all a matter of training. A laborer is not going to make much depending on where their located and sometimes work comes and goes. If a person where in Texas laborers are needed where their drilling for oil and such.
It's all a matter of looking for opportunity but you do have to look for them because their just not there. The real estate industry had a lot of jobs but those people will have to look elsewhere to less desirable jobs because that boom is over. It not the end of the world just the end of that expansion.
If I wanted to work I could it just isn't very desirable to work in the US as some other countries but it's better than most. Location is also a big factor. Jobs in the US are very isolated to territory. A person looking for a tech job will have an easier time finding a job in the silicon valley and a person looking for a business job will have an easier time finding a job in Manhattan. If I were desperate for a job it wouldn't take me much time to get one.
When I was young I studied electronics and programming. I wanted to be a robotics tech so I had to know both. I got lazy though and wanted to just be a programmer. But there's not a lot of programming jobs that are good on the west coast so I would have to relocate to somewhere in the east. However if i wanted to go into electronics the silicon valley would be the place to stay. It's all a matter of training. A laborer is not going to make much depending on where their located and sometimes work comes and goes. If a person where in Texas laborers are needed where their drilling for oil and such.
It's all a matter of looking for opportunity but you do have to look for them because their just not there. The real estate industry had a lot of jobs but those people will have to look elsewhere to less desirable jobs because that boom is over. It not the end of the world just the end of that expansion.
Great article. I know so many unemployed people in their 40s that are bright, smart guys who cannot
even get granted an interview. What about the inflation rate? They fudge that bigtime!
even get granted an interview. What about the inflation rate? They fudge that bigtime!
Quote from southamerica:
.
January 4, 2008
SouthAmerica: Here is how the US Labor Department keeps unemployment rates low at around 5 percent using a flexible way of reporting. It is very easy â just create a new category for âdiscouraged workersâ and you dump any adjustments necessary to achieve the desired fictitious unemployment rate in that category.
Since George W. Bush became president almost 7 years ago â over 4 million people from age group 44 to 57 disappeared from the US work force (most of them with advanced degrees) â you can find them during the week playing with their laptops and cell phones, and looking busy at Starbucks, Borders, Barnes and Noble - all around the country. (This trend reflects a real waste of talent and practical experiences going on in the US today).
Another large group â in the millions â decided to call themselves consultants (because of various reasons including their age, pride, and so on). Others even though they still reasonable young (on their early 50âs) decided to qualify themselves as retired.
Another very large group of approximately 4 million mostly unemployed people are hiding on the disability figures of the US government. In the first 3 years of the Bush administration the number of people who started receiving disability benefits went through the roof. As an over-reaction to that figure explosion in the first 3 years of his administration in the last few years the Bush administration has been making almost impossible for people to qualify for disability even to the people who are really disabled.
The number of people in prison in the United States also continues to grow year after year and in the near future the United States will have over 2.3 million inmates in Federal, State, and local prisons.
Sorry, if I forgot to mention above some of the other creative ways to fudge the unemployment rate numbers.
The Bush administration probably has the least credibility of any US administration in modern times. Is it possible that the US Labor department started adding to its numbers the new jobs being created in Iraq? I know that Americans are investing a large amount of taxpayers money in Iraq. I would not be surprised if this administration is counting the new jobs created in Iraq as part of the US job creation.
They use all kinds of gimmicks to fudge all the data they provide to the public. For example, the unemployment rate kept going down as the government kept adding large amounts of people to the discouraged workers group of people. It is pathetic. The Bush administration adopted the Enron and WorldCom method of statistics and releasing figures and information to the public.
But if you make some rational adjustments to the unemployment rate as reported by the US Labor Department, you get a different picture. It is estimated that at least 3 million people are hiding in the disability figures. (People who had some form of disability for many years such as a pain in the back or some other form of disability, but these people were willing to keep working if they had a job.)
Lots of people run out of unemployment benefits and they couldn't find a job thatâs why they had an explosion in the number of people on disability in the first 3 years of the Bush administration until they closed that option.
Another 4 million are not counted because they left the labor force and are considered discouraged workers who abandoned their job searches. If we adjust the unemployment rate for these items, then the US unemployment rate jumps to over 12 percent.
The unemployment problem in the United States it does not account for over 6 million people who are underemployed or decided to further their education because they could not find a job, then if we made these adjustments a more realistic picture appears of the real unemployment rate in the United States, with the actual unemployment rate increasing to over 15 percent.
The US government fudges their statistics, and they make footnotes to let everybody know that the figures published are not worth much. But people still use the data anyway, as if the data had any value.
The US government has lost most of its credibility around the world since the Bush administration took office. It is not a secret that the current administration doesn't make much distinction from good information and garbage; if it is useful information to further their agenda they'll use it.
A few years ago I had to go to the US Labor Department website to find out who was the invisible Labor Secretary of the Bush administration. I was surprised to find out that the current Labor Secretary was a Chinese-woman called Elaine L. Chao. Now, I am beginning to understand what the Bush administration means when they say that they created 4 million jobs â they mean in China.
The Easy Fix
To improve the unemployment rate overnight, any government should adopt the same system of counting the unemployed as the system being used by the United States government today. It is a simple method of counting the unemployed, massaging the figures and using various modern techniques, such as: "Lying, Deception, and Misinformation."
*********
Jobless Rate Hits 5 Percent, 2-Year High
Friday January 4, 12:40 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
The Associated Press
Jobless Rates Hits 5 Percent, a 2-Year High, Fanning Recession Fears
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Hiring practically stalled in December, driving the nation's unemployment rate up to a two-year high of 5 percent and fanning fears of a recession.
Employers last month added the fewest new jobs to their payrolls in more than four years, according to the employment report released Friday by the Labor Department. The report showed that employment conditions are deteriorating, strained by a housing slump and credit crunch that are sapping economic strength.
"The economy is getting hit by some body blows. The big question is whether the economy can withstand it or will it take a fall," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.
The unemployment rate jumped from 4.7 percent in November to 5 percent in December, the highest since November 2005 after the Gulf Coast hurricanes dealt the country a mighty blow. Total payrolls -- both private employers and government -- grew by just 18,000 last month, the worst showing since August 2003, when the economy suffered job losses as it struggled to recover from the 2001 recession.
â¦The government added 31,000 jobs in December, while private employers actually cut payrolls by 13,000, underscoring the weaknessâ¦.
.
.
January 4, 2008
SouthAmerica: I donât know if it is because some people on this forum have the mindset of a trader who cares only about what is happening just in the immediate future and it does not matter in which direction the market is moving, or if many traders are very young and they canât grasp the big picture and the long term consequences of trading based on misinformation.
If you are interested only in catching the latest wave in the way up or in the way down and move quickly in and out of the market and make a quick buck then I understand why you are not interested on the stuff that I write about.
But if are investing in the market for the longer term instead of a real short ride then you should understand that there are many consequences â usually bad - when you are investing based on faulty information. The sub prime mess it is just the latest example of people doing their investing on automatic pilot and hoping for the best.
Let me give you another actual example maybe you can grasp what I am saying â WorldCom stock did show for a period of years an outstanding business results and its stock moved up accordingly to these great reported results.
Years later we found out that WorldCom had been cooking the books and they were producing these earnings from tin air â they were booking earnings that did not existed.
The WorldCom stock took off and many people made money based on these fudged figures and they kept the game going as long as they could until the house of cards collapsed.
But in the meantime people lost their jobs in companies that were competing with WorldCom because they could not come up with a strategy to keep up with the earnings gains reported by WorldCom. People got fired and proven business models became questionable because they could not produce the same results as WorldCom.
I wonder what was the full impact of WorldComâs fraudulent earnings had on their competitors such as on AT&T and many others.
I understand why the US government produce every month these fudged figures to start with after a certain level of the unemployment rate the government has to extend the number of months that the government let people collect the unemployment benefits â and that can cost a few extra billion dollars to the government.
A higher unemployment figure makes it harder for companies to justify new investments when the employment market is deteriorating. Loans start getting harder for many businesses to get it, because lenders are not sure that these loans will be repaid.
Companies cut production of the products that they make since the demand will decline for their products as more people becomes unemployed.
I hope some of the traders on this forum understand some of the basic economic theory that brings a country into a recession and even an economic depression.
When the US government is reporting a 5 percent unemployment rate when the actual rate is over 10 percent â people should not be surprised when millions of people canât pay their mortgages, their credit card debts, or corporations canât pay their bondholders, and after awhile everything starts feeding on one another making things even worse than before and so onâ¦.
Most American businesses would make adjustments to their business plan that would affect the level of future employment; production and so onâ¦Based on the different levels of current unemployment rate and future forecasts.
When you have at least a 5 percent extra unemployment rate in the US economy that itâs not being accounted for that can distort a lot figures all over the place including future company earnings and so onâ¦
.
January 4, 2008
SouthAmerica: I donât know if it is because some people on this forum have the mindset of a trader who cares only about what is happening just in the immediate future and it does not matter in which direction the market is moving, or if many traders are very young and they canât grasp the big picture and the long term consequences of trading based on misinformation.
If you are interested only in catching the latest wave in the way up or in the way down and move quickly in and out of the market and make a quick buck then I understand why you are not interested on the stuff that I write about.
But if are investing in the market for the longer term instead of a real short ride then you should understand that there are many consequences â usually bad - when you are investing based on faulty information. The sub prime mess it is just the latest example of people doing their investing on automatic pilot and hoping for the best.
Let me give you another actual example maybe you can grasp what I am saying â WorldCom stock did show for a period of years an outstanding business results and its stock moved up accordingly to these great reported results.
Years later we found out that WorldCom had been cooking the books and they were producing these earnings from tin air â they were booking earnings that did not existed.
The WorldCom stock took off and many people made money based on these fudged figures and they kept the game going as long as they could until the house of cards collapsed.
But in the meantime people lost their jobs in companies that were competing with WorldCom because they could not come up with a strategy to keep up with the earnings gains reported by WorldCom. People got fired and proven business models became questionable because they could not produce the same results as WorldCom.
I wonder what was the full impact of WorldComâs fraudulent earnings had on their competitors such as on AT&T and many others.
I understand why the US government produce every month these fudged figures to start with after a certain level of the unemployment rate the government has to extend the number of months that the government let people collect the unemployment benefits â and that can cost a few extra billion dollars to the government.
A higher unemployment figure makes it harder for companies to justify new investments when the employment market is deteriorating. Loans start getting harder for many businesses to get it, because lenders are not sure that these loans will be repaid.
Companies cut production of the products that they make since the demand will decline for their products as more people becomes unemployed.
I hope some of the traders on this forum understand some of the basic economic theory that brings a country into a recession and even an economic depression.
When the US government is reporting a 5 percent unemployment rate when the actual rate is over 10 percent â people should not be surprised when millions of people canât pay their mortgages, their credit card debts, or corporations canât pay their bondholders, and after awhile everything starts feeding on one another making things even worse than before and so onâ¦.
Most American businesses would make adjustments to their business plan that would affect the level of future employment; production and so onâ¦Based on the different levels of current unemployment rate and future forecasts.
When you have at least a 5 percent extra unemployment rate in the US economy that itâs not being accounted for that can distort a lot figures all over the place including future company earnings and so onâ¦
.
Quote from midlifeguy:
Great article. I know so many unemployed people in their 40s that are bright, smart guys who cannot
even get granted an interview. What about the inflation rate? They fudge that bigtime!
All this would be solved with one alternative fuel. I know there out there but the monopolies will not let them develop. My dad even worked on something that could have been used with alternatives called the smartplug. It may not work but the technology is definetly there. Greedy industries are not going to make it easy for these to evolve.
If people didn't pay a huge portion for fuel the cost of living would be greatly curved. Everything involves oil and energy in todays world.
A smart company wouldn't watch the employment figures but the flow of money. I really don't care if my government lies. In fact I would be mad if they didn't because every country lies so if we didn't we would be responsible for all the garbage. What gets me is if they are not good liars, lie at the wrong time, and lie for the wrong purpose. Lieing that is pro-USA is not bad unless their lieing to be crooks (in bed with an industry). They lie about employment because it has a lot to do with investor confidence which supports foreign investment. Besides don't worry about it their all lieing one way or another. The government wasn't the one's that caused the subprime it was greedy investors. They wanted easy money. The one's that didn't know how to follow the money flow got stuck with the bag.
Here is where I fault the world government.
(this might not play right now youtube does maintence at night)
<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/h6vSxR6UKFM&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/h6vSxR6UKFM&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
<a href="http://www.ecotality.com/technologies/ecobus/" target="_blank">Ecobus</a>
<a href="http://www.poweraircorp.com/technology/" target="_blank">zincfuel technology</a>
<a href="http://www.poweraircorp.com/markets/power-applications.asp" target="_blank">The zinc generator</a>
<a href="http://www.smartplugs.com/" target="_blank">the smartplug</a>
When I was in my twenties I studied robotics. I then went on to start a programming company. I started out just reselling microsoft software. The bigger picture was I was going to finish my learning in programming and eventially start my dream corporation Alva Research & Development. I had this idea I could make an alternative fuel and make robots that were like humans. Every day I would conduct business and work towards my goal of having this corporation. It seemed like people were after me. Sure enough my business Neal's Software went into the gutter. The company that did my mechant services took all my money and put it into a frozen account. Now I had no money. That wasn't the only problem Paypal (cia) started messing with me. Then on Ebay there were people that were asking me weird questions about my software. They were trying to keep me from expanding all at once from different angles. Soon my reputations was tarnished and I had no way to go about funding my invention that I had made up from studying the tesla coil combined with research I did in robotics but the pressure and lack of funding was too immense.
My problem with government and industry is when there are opportunities like the links I provided and they are not all over it to make it work.
(this might not play right now youtube does maintence at night)
<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/h6vSxR6UKFM&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/h6vSxR6UKFM&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
<a href="http://www.ecotality.com/technologies/ecobus/" target="_blank">Ecobus</a>
<a href="http://www.poweraircorp.com/technology/" target="_blank">zincfuel technology</a>
<a href="http://www.poweraircorp.com/markets/power-applications.asp" target="_blank">The zinc generator</a>
<a href="http://www.smartplugs.com/" target="_blank">the smartplug</a>
When I was in my twenties I studied robotics. I then went on to start a programming company. I started out just reselling microsoft software. The bigger picture was I was going to finish my learning in programming and eventially start my dream corporation Alva Research & Development. I had this idea I could make an alternative fuel and make robots that were like humans. Every day I would conduct business and work towards my goal of having this corporation. It seemed like people were after me. Sure enough my business Neal's Software went into the gutter. The company that did my mechant services took all my money and put it into a frozen account. Now I had no money. That wasn't the only problem Paypal (cia) started messing with me. Then on Ebay there were people that were asking me weird questions about my software. They were trying to keep me from expanding all at once from different angles. Soon my reputations was tarnished and I had no way to go about funding my invention that I had made up from studying the tesla coil combined with research I did in robotics but the pressure and lack of funding was too immense.
My problem with government and industry is when there are opportunities like the links I provided and they are not all over it to make it work.