All of you have alot more failures, and I obviously only posted a few for each.
Yes I stand corrected, wfc ONLY has hit a high of $24.25 as of THIS MOMENT. You have only lost -25% on this pick at this time. I stand corrected.
The psychology of the ET contrarian indicators
- Thread starter B. Rowshan
- Start date
Yes I stand corrected, wfc ONLY has hit a high of $24.25 as of THIS MOMENT. You have only lost -25% on this pick at this time. I stand corrected.
Stock Trad3r getting the most votes???
Perma-bulls and perma-bears make lousy fades! Guys like port who somehow manage to always buy at the top AND sell at the bottom- now, <i>that</i> takes genuine talent.
Perma-bulls and perma-bears make lousy fades! Guys like port who somehow manage to always buy at the top AND sell at the bottom- now, <i>that</i> takes genuine talent.
Agree. A "perma" anything will ALWAYS like a broken clock be right every now and then. My vote goes to Port. He can get clocked in any directional environment.
Surf's had some good calls. He'll dig a TM article I've got working in the pipeline. The more sensitive you are to emerging revaluations the earlier you'll be. Being perceptive has it's price......
but had YOU timed his call perhaps YOU would have made a fortune...Why? Wouldn't someone "sensitive to emerging revaluations" time his trades in accordance with price action rather than at the potentially arbitrary moment that the "emerging revaluation" occurred to him?
What's "price action" mean?
Even in a bull market there's going to be numerous instances of sloppy "price action." Failed breakouts, outside days that didn't generate downside follow through. They're called bear traps.
So if one is predisposed bearish they're going to sell off of what they wrongly perceive as "bearish action." Someone like Paul Jones may get stopped out a half dozen times before he correctly catches the turn.
In trading only one thing matters:It's how you bet.
Even in a bull market there's going to be numerous instances of sloppy "price action." Failed breakouts, outside days that didn't generate downside follow through. They're called bear traps.
So if one is predisposed bearish they're going to sell off of what they wrongly perceive as "bearish action." Someone like Paul Jones may get stopped out a half dozen times before he correctly catches the turn.
In trading only one thing matters:It's how you bet.
I'm inclined to agree that he would try to catch the turn, rather than act spontaneously on an "emerging revaluation." I won't presume to know how he trades, but I would suspect he may develop a view ("emerging revaluation") and then try to time it. Therefore, I don't see why "being perceptive has its price," as you noted earlier.
Sure he, me or anyone else is going to attempt "timing it". That doesn't mean by any stretch that we're right on the timing.
I shorted ES in Oct/06. An epically shitty call. Why was I bearish? Because my work showed the credit situation was becoming an issue and I had measured resistance. Even yet buyers voted and in the short run at least they won. The market rallied straight up until Feb 27, 2007. Then a "crash." Certainly a "price action" reason for bears to be short. What happened? A further rally through July to a new all time high. Then a REALLY big sell-off, the biggest since the bull market started in 2003. A good reason to "time" a short. What happened? ANOTHER new ATH in Oct/07. So there were numerous instances to get smoked as a short "timing" bearish "price action". Of course anyone who did indeed short the market during that period and stayed with their view without blowing up first made out handsomely. In fact Tudor and me shorted the all time high day. But this notion of "timing" as some crystal ball is ridiculous.
The same way it got to be a joke on ET that several times in 05/06 after sharp Friday corrections there would invariably be a thread titled CRASH MONDAY!. Each and every time those threads marked swing lows. But as an excellent trader in Chicago who no longer posts on ET noted to me privately-the price action on the preceding Friday when there truly is a Monday crash will be identical to those times when there was no crash. He was right. Just remember the video of that kid who filmed himself blowing up the Sunday before MLK day. If he'd made that buy play most any other prior sample of Friday weakness it would've worked.
Solid traders don't ascribe to price action. They have a reason-often based on price-to make a trade but they whole heartily embrace the notion of random outcomes. I worked for a guy from the CBOT who was considered a top market timer. He sold his research to J.P. Morgan, BAC and a half dozen hedge funds. During a cold streak he kept shorting Bonds on weakness only to see the market snap right back. We were clearing through the old Chemical Bank and I remember Chemical's Long Bond trader telling me "we love market timers because you're the only selling below value we see." That line taught me a lot...
I shorted ES in Oct/06. An epically shitty call. Why was I bearish? Because my work showed the credit situation was becoming an issue and I had measured resistance. Even yet buyers voted and in the short run at least they won. The market rallied straight up until Feb 27, 2007. Then a "crash." Certainly a "price action" reason for bears to be short. What happened? A further rally through July to a new all time high. Then a REALLY big sell-off, the biggest since the bull market started in 2003. A good reason to "time" a short. What happened? ANOTHER new ATH in Oct/07. So there were numerous instances to get smoked as a short "timing" bearish "price action". Of course anyone who did indeed short the market during that period and stayed with their view without blowing up first made out handsomely. In fact Tudor and me shorted the all time high day. But this notion of "timing" as some crystal ball is ridiculous.
The same way it got to be a joke on ET that several times in 05/06 after sharp Friday corrections there would invariably be a thread titled CRASH MONDAY!. Each and every time those threads marked swing lows. But as an excellent trader in Chicago who no longer posts on ET noted to me privately-the price action on the preceding Friday when there truly is a Monday crash will be identical to those times when there was no crash. He was right. Just remember the video of that kid who filmed himself blowing up the Sunday before MLK day. If he'd made that buy play most any other prior sample of Friday weakness it would've worked.
Solid traders don't ascribe to price action. They have a reason-often based on price-to make a trade but they whole heartily embrace the notion of random outcomes. I worked for a guy from the CBOT who was considered a top market timer. He sold his research to J.P. Morgan, BAC and a half dozen hedge funds. During a cold streak he kept shorting Bonds on weakness only to see the market snap right back. We were clearing through the old Chemical Bank and I remember Chemical's Long Bond trader telling me "we love market timers because you're the only selling below value we see." That line taught me a lot...