The psychology of the ET contrarian indicators

[Thunderdog]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Sure he, me or anyone else is going to attempt "timing it". That doesn't mean by any stretch that we're right on the timing...

Again, I agree. However, your first post in this thread alluded to the notion that perceptive traders are at a disadvantage: "Being perceptive has its price." That's the part where we disagree. I would think that perceptive traders who try to time the market are not going to be at a disadvantage in comparison to less perceptive traders who try to time the market. That was the sum total of my earlier point.

Just to be clear, I don't speak from the experience of perception, since I know that I, personally, cannot time trades on the basis of fundamentals or anything other than price action. And while that may limit what I can hope to make in the markets, it nonetheless pays to know my own limitations and to work with what I have.

 

[Pekelo]

Speaking of timing, here is how you do it:

Quote from Pekelo:

Since the Height is 32 pts and Failure was at 699, it indicates a 667 3rd bottom on the cash...

This was posted on March 6th at 10:55 am, just about 4 hours BEFORE we put in the bottom for the year. Please note I didn't just pull a number out of my ass, there was science (!!) behind it....

 

[B. Rowshan]

I'm surprised w the poll results. There should be more votes.

 

[B. Rowshan]

I would think that this would be a subject that would evoke more dialogue and responses.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from robbie380:

so who is rowshan? anyone know his old sn?
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romeo
james stock
rubberbird
thorn
ghostzapper


World famous for telling all on ET to short the S&P since 1120 under the above mentioned mpd alias.

 

[B. Rowshan]

Quote from B. Rowshan:

3) marketsmurfer, he said short crox @ $47 and was forced to cover @ $63 for a loss of -33%. He said short wfc @ $19, and got stopped out @ $25 for another quick loss of -33%, he also guaranteed the market bottomed in early november 2008 only to have it run -20% against him in the next 2 weeks.

Quote from marketsurfer:

WFC hit 25?? Making stuff up again?

Quote from marketsurfer:

no, everything is in at 19.60. i'll throw in the towell if 25 is hit....

surf

Was I making stuff up or did I know that wfc would hit 25 soon enough. That's the difference between you and I. I knew it would hit 25, you didn't.

 

[B. Rowshan]

stock trad3r, now posting a s roman candle, shows why the ET consensus considers him the best contrarian indicator on this site.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=163227

I voted for marketsmurfer b/c fading him has made me money (crox and wfc). Marketsmurfer shows how to lose -50% on a stock in only a month, w/o any embarrassment..ahh to be a paper trader must be great! He sold wfc @ $19.6, and today it reached a high of $28 1/4 for a whopping 50% move in a month! WOW!

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=160695

Quote from marketsmurfer:

im not embarassed. i took a shot and lost, big deal---- i was early once again, however, still think we will eventually see 10 on this one.

smurf

He's not embarrassed? He can't even spell 'embarrassed', so he should be!!

 

[Aisone]

Quote from B. Rowshan:

Although i'm not a fan of the garabage dump known as ET, I do admit that some of the handles are such great contrarian indicators that it forces me to come here to see what these fools are posting.

So you've found another forum on the net to hang out where an arrogant and condescending attitude fits in better?

I highly doubt it.

 

[Spooz Top]

i`ve never seen a greater fade in my life than Blackguard on the ES thread.......within minutes of stating his "new" position to ride with NO stop in place.....he`d be OTM by 15 handles within the hour & on his way to a 100 handle drawdown.....marking the multi month swing hi/lo on the charts.

i counted 12 for 12 before he limped away & faded into obscurity while mumbling something like he was actually on the other side of the trades the entire time.

he was the modern day Eddie Mush......a simply incredible individual with the luck of a gerbil in a Chelsea bathhouse!

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from Spooz Top:

simply incredible individual with the luck of a gerbil in a Chelsea bathhouse!

hahahahahahaha hahahahaha you freak you