The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

As indicated before, polls serve a good purpose only to define trend and as one can see, the trend in the late days of campaign even with the bad polls, was in the direction of Trump. One other purpose of polls which is nefarious, is to shape public opinion and make you think the election is going against the Republican candidate in hopes that you will get discouraged and not vote.
 
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Tony Stark said:
The LA times poll is garbage and has a very different methodology than conventional polls.
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Turns out that the LA Times poll was not garbage and I contend that their methodology will be the wave of the future. Granted they didn't get the popular vote correct, but they identified the proper trend and never got the numbers too far on one side or the other like most of your NBC, ABC type of polls that were trying to depress Republican turnout. (And probably did to a certain extent)
 
How many times did we have to tell this to the lefties... I am posting this here fo the next time we have to explain this about early polls.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/307111-pollsters-go-back-to-drawing-board

...

A final fix? Zogby said consumers need to quit thinking the polls are a sort of guarantee of who is going to win.

After the 2012 election, in which Silver was deified for his calculations, Zogby suggested many put too much faith in how accurate the polls could possibly be.

“We need to take the word ‘prediction’ out of this business,” he said.

“If I’ve got to lose 20 pounds between now and Nov. 8, the scale will tell me how I’m doing. … But it’s not going to tell me what my weight will be on Nov. 8.”
 
Tony Stark said:
1.Most polls did not have Romney ahead a week out,only Rasmussen and Gallup.


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2.Nate silver admitted he blew it with trump but

A.Silver said he ignored polls when he made that call.

B.As previously stated,I don't relay only on Silver.

C.The polls did not blow it with Trump.The majority of them had him ahead from July 2015.


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3.To discuss the 2014 polls we would have to examine every race and every poll.Sorry I will have to pass on that.


4.The way I look at polls they aren't wrong now or a few weeks ago.The good polls still have Hillary ahead.I don't look at how many points they have a candidate ahead,all I look at is who they have ahead in the large majority of their polls be it +1 or + 10.The good polls lowered Obama's numbers as the race got closer to the end,but the majority of them still had Obama ahead.Hillary being ahead in 7 out of 10 credible polls at +1 or + 10 makes no difference in The TS algo,all that matters is that she is ahead in 7 out of 10.If NBC does 20 polls for the 2016 election and 15 had Hillary ahead and she wins they were accurate for 2016,doesn't matter if they had her ahead +1 or +10.
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I see here that your precious Gallup Poll got 2012 wrong. It had Romney ahead. --oops
 
Tony Stark said:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-polls_us_581e2897e4b0e80b02ca6962

Hillary Clinton Is Leading In A Greater Portion Of Polls Than Obama Was In The Last Two Elections

Things are looking good for the Democratic nominee.

11/06/2016 12:47 am ET | Updated 14 hours ago

Janie Velencia Associate Polling Editor, The Huffington Post


Hillary Clinton has consistently led in a greater portion of presidential polls in the two months heading into Election Day than President Barack Obama did in both 2008 and 2012.

The Democratic nominee is ahead of GOP nominee Donald Trump in 93 percent of polls conducted in the two months before Election Day. Trump leads in just 3 percent of the polls. Another 3 percent of polls show a tied race.

The ratio of the surveys she leads in is slightly less when polls with third-party candidates are analyzed.

Overall, these statistics reflect a greater level of certainty of Clinton’s position as the leader than was present for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Obama led in 83 percent of polls against Sen. John McCain, who led in 11 percent, in 2008. The 2012 race was closer and that uncertainty was reflected in the lower ratio of polls Obama led to former Gov. Mitt Romney: 62 percent to 26 percent.

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The range by which Clinton leads relative to Trump also stands in stark contrast to the 2008 and 2012 elections.

The former secretary of state leads by 1 to 13 points in the polls she is ahead in. Trump’s lead, among the 3 percent of polls he’s ahead in, ranges from 1 to 2 points.

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Even when the data range is narrowed to the week heading into Election Day, Clinton still has a strong advantage. Polls get more predictive of the outcome the closer they are to Election Day.

Clinton leads in 87 percent of all the two-way polls and 82 percent of the four-way polls conducted in the week before Election Day. Trump leads in 0 percent of those polls.

Comparatively, Obama led in 100 percent of the polls in the same time range in 2008 and 69 percent in 2012.

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Huffington Post
The Huffington Post election forecast model provides even greater certainty of Clinton’s strength heading into Nov. 8. The forecast, which assesses polls in all states, predicts a 98.3 percent chance she’ll win and just a 1.4 percent chance Trump will win.
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OOPS
 
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