The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

[jem]

the is whole thread I said the the proper template was to use the 2012 election as a template.
using that template showed the race to be very close the whole time and the race was.

the polls were using democrat rich templates to pretend hillary was leading big.
she was never leading big if you used 2012 as the turnout model.

We predicted the polls would change their models and herd as then had done in 2012.
It happened. We then told you that using 2012 as the model the race was in the margin for error.

it was. that is why the algo was right..
I am not saying the algo was right because trump won. I am saying it was right because in the end many of the polls unskewed their models to match it.

Drumpf's win does not make your algo right. It's right only in the broken clock kind of way.

See also: Looks like Romney is the next president.

 

[jem]

I had to explain this to tony a few weeks ago...
I called the proper template perfectly...
my hope for the turnout off.

===



"Obama won by 7 in 2008. 53 to 46
Obama won by 4 in 2012.

here is what I said on ET on Nov. 5th --- in 2012 about polls and templates... and I got it 100 percent on the money in terms what a proper polling template should be.

my hope/prediction was off but my proper polling template call was perfect.

----
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/romney-looks-like-the-next-pres.240772/page-335

polls slanted greater to the Dems than the 2008 the template are leftist frauds... and they should be chastised. This will include the crazy predictions made by nate silver.

polls with the 2008 template are leftists, fools, or blind.
even axelrod said last night they will not do as well as 2008.

poll between 2010 and 2008 are professional... perhaps a little partisan as they get closer to 2008.

polls with 2010... are perhaps a bit partisan to the Rs but smart.


but IMO

polls should slanted more to the Is and the Rs because that is what the turnout on Tuesday will teach us.

all these pollsters... underweighted the Is."

 

[jem]

I note that we saw worse than 8 or 9 dem advantage in many of the polls.
Plus they were playing around with using far more strong dems than strong republicans at times.

Which was also an indication hillary had problems with weaker dems. (and I pointed that out this this thread too.)

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/305133-pollsters-suffer-huge-embarrassment

Pollster John Zogby believes that many in the industry weighted their polls too heavily in favor of Democrats, pointing to polls that had an 8- to 9-point advantage for the party, when it should have been in the 4- to 5-point range, he said.

It’s a claim that Trump made throughout the process.

But pollsters largely dismissed that notion, saying that Democrats turn out in larger numbers in a presidential election year and that Republicans were losing registered voters, who were increasingly identifying as independents.

That assumption will have to be reexamined.

 

[fhl]

''


Nate, it's time for you to skate.

 

[Tony Stark]

The tracking polls got it again. The canvassing polls are shown to be crap.

IBD/TIPP Poll Nails It, Again

IBD/TIPP said Trump + 2,but Hillary got more votes

 

[Tony Stark]

Perfect cap to this thread.

The vast majority of polls were fake for months were fake. Using D plus 7 to to D plus 10 or worse.... some did not even reveal their templates.

We predicted they would unskew and then we could tell you what was going on.
When they did last week we saw that the national vote was in the margin for error.

Then we were able to use Nate Silvers simulations to surmise Trump had a good chance to win the electoral college. Nate said if the national vote was less than 2% hillarys favor trump could win the electoral college. This made us more optimistic than nate because the algo let us know that the correct voter tally was that the national vote was less than 2% in hillarys favor.


tldr...

So the call was... wait until the crooked polls unskew or herd in front of the election and then we could tell you what was going on. When they unskewed we knew it was inside the margin for error.

the algo go it right. tony stark and the mass media polls were fake... for months and months til they unskewed.

P.S.

Thanks to Tony for being a partisan but somewhat entertaining contributor.
He was probably not paid to post anymore so I can understand why he is not here today.
As far as the rest of you lefties... did any of you play sports growing up when you were forming your character?

The polls weren't wrong Jem.8 of the last 10 polls had Hillary ahead.70-80 % of the polls the last 6 months had Hilliary ahead and Hillary did indeed get more votes.After getting 66 and 69 million votes in the last 2 elections nobody expected Dems to drop to 59 million votes this election but Hillary still got more votes than Trump as the majority of national polls stated.

Anyway its been fun debating with you these last few months my friend.Congratulations on your candidates victory and I too hope Trump does a good job.

 

[fhl]

IBD/TIPP said Trump + 2,but Hillary got more votes

WRONG!!!!!

The tracking polls were closer than the canvassing polls. PERIOD!!!!

Monday, November 7
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Bloomberg Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 41, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein CBS News Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 42, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 3 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Monmouth Clinton 50, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Economist/YouGov Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Clinton +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC News/SM Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 3 Clinton +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Bloomberg Clinton 46, Trump 43 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 48 Trump +5
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CBS News Clinton 47, Trump 43 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 42 Clinton +1
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 48, Trump 44 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 44, Trump 39 Clinton +5
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 49, Trump 46 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Monmouth Clinton 50, Trump 44 Clinton +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Economist/YouGov Clinton 49, Trump 45 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton NBC News/SM Clinton 51, Trump 44 Clinton +7
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Clinton +4

 

[jem]

I was just watching the cnn and fox and msnbc.
The fox stat / polling guy pretty much just used my explanation.


He said support for hillary stayed the same no matter what Trump did. He said it was the independents waxing and and waning who then broke for trump towards the election which explained why the polls had problems.

yes and no... there is a claim that this was could not be polled... but I think the independents were a proxy for what was going on. Nobody in the press spoke of it. But I created a thread about it.

I am far less concerned about the actual result than I am with the templates being used.
(prior to the herding the mostly crooked pollsters were using very democrat rich samples... and they manipulated (changed) those templates to hide the surge in independents to Trump. Trump had independents, then it went to about 50/50 after the sex comments... then he opened up a 15 point lead with them.

Perhaps had the pollsters not been so crooked Hillary would have listened to Michael Moore. Moore knew what we saw in the data.

Manipulating the templates to hide the independents bouncing back and forth to trump as he screwed up and then recovered was crooked.

Using democrat rich samples also deprived us from knowing that if you used the 2012 turnout model... Trump was tied or slightly in the lead... almost the whole race.

Had we know that the press and the lefties mostly distorted memes against trump would have been seen as having less merit and trump may have blown her out.

 

[Tony Stark]

WRONG!!!!!

The tracking polls were closer than the canvassing polls. PERIOD!!!!

Monday, November 7
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Bloomberg Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 41, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein CBS News Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 42, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 3 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Monmouth Clinton 50, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Economist/YouGov Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Clinton +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC News/SM Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 3 Clinton +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Bloomberg Clinton 46, Trump 43 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 48 Trump +5
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CBS News Clinton 47, Trump 43 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 42 Clinton +1
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 48, Trump 44 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 44, Trump 39 Clinton +5
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 49, Trump 46 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Monmouth Clinton 50, Trump 44 Clinton +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Economist/YouGov Clinton 49, Trump 45 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton NBC News/SM Clinton 51, Trump 44 Clinton +7
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Clinton +4

You said IBD/TIPP nailed it.IBD /TIPP had Trump + 2,but Hillary got more votes.8 other polls had Hillary in the lead and they were right.

 

[der_kommissar]

Time for you to make a graceful exit Tony...We'll mark our calendars for the Spring of 2020 when you make your next appearance.