The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Tony Stark · Nov 7, 2016

jem said:
Nate explains... Hillary one state away from losing Electoral College...
Obama had 320 4 years ago... she only has 270 right now according to his work.

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016...nton-one-state-away-losing-electoral-college/

Whats the jem algos or the jem opinions final prediction?who wins?by how many points?by how many ec votes?

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 7, 2016

The majority of polls show Hillary ahead. What concerns me is that there is very little discussion here of actual issues.

jem · Nov 7, 2016

its way too close to call. The algo was quite satisfied with the templates after the herding. So its looks like Hillary has a slight national lead overall by about 1 to 2 points after unskewing and averaging.

So its too close to call.

I find myself and the algo agreeing with Nate Silver's simulations lately.

Because most the national polls unskewed during the herding last week I now see Nate;s work as making sense. Instead of garbage in garbage out as it was before the herding... his work is now very "tradeable".

If you tell me who wins florida, colorado, and Pennsylvania... that is what I will be watching.

Tony Stark said:
Whats the jem algos or the jem opinions final prediction?who wins?by how many points?by how many ec votes?

Snarkhund · Nov 7, 2016

Buy1Sell2 said:
The majority of polls show Hillary ahead. What concerns me is that there is very little discussion here of actual issues.

Agree. It has become tribal and a close outcome will leave the country in a mess.

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 7, 2016

Snarkhund said:
Agree. It has become tribal and a close outcome will leave the country in a mess.

I am still very hopeful of a Trump victory. The path is certainly there, but who knows? LA Times has him ahead by 5 and IBD has him up by 2. Wouldn't it be nice if they were right?

futurecurrents · Nov 7, 2016

Buy1Sell2 said:
I am still very hopeful of a Trump victory. The path is certainly there, but who knows? LA Times has him ahead by 5 and IBD has him up by 2. Wouldn't it be nice if they were right?

You hope for a Trump victory? What the fuck is wrong with you?

jem · Nov 7, 2016

he cares about the next generation of Americans. which seems like a disease to the selfish sell out the future for ice cream today "progressive" voters.

futurecurrents said:
You hope for a Trump victory? What the fuck is wrong with you?

jem · Nov 7, 2016

Wallet · Nov 7, 2016

jem said:
today's 4 way polls November 7 2016 for posterity.

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General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Bloomberg Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 41, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein CBS News Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Monmouth Clinton 50, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Clinton +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC News/SM Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 3 Clinton +6

Everything is within the margin of error, hoping for a Brexit. Imo they purposely misreported the polls in favor of a stay, hoping to dampen opposition turnout. I'm guessing the system is doing the same here. We will know tomorrow

Go Vote!

futurecurrents · Nov 7, 2016

jem said:
he cares about the next generation of Americans. which seems like a disease to the selfish sell out the future for ice cream today "progressive" voters.

Holy shit, you want Trump too? Oh wait, you're a fucking idiot also.