The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

they were.

nate looks at the last 2 to three weeks of polls. That stops your team of herders like abc from taking the title by waiting until the last few polls to put out legit polls.
 
jem said:
they were.

nate looks at the last 2 to three weeks of polls. That stops your team of herders like abc from taking the title by waiting until the last few polls to put out legit polls.
More...


They were 3 points off . Other pollsters were closer and had obama ahead months before they even started polling.this year they are taking both sides by having Hillary ahead in one poll and trump in the other.
 
you don't seem to place any importance on logical methodology.
nor do you seem to understand that crooked polls are like broken clocks. They can get a binary result correct even if they have terrible methodology.

polls are not supposed to be forecasting what will happen on nov 8th... they say if you vote today who would you vote for.

As the election approaches vote tallys change. Undecideds and third parties shift. Trump got a higher percentage of republicans.

the key to a good poll is good methodology and an honest template.

Now... there is something else to consider. After the herding some of your crooked polls adopted a reasonable template. closer to d plus 4.

But... they could all be wrong if the turnout does not match 2012.

Because trump received more primary votes than hillary... there is a chance today's turnout is more like 2014 than 2012.

In which case almost all the polls will have underestimated the Trump vote.

But that would not mean the polls with good templates were bad.

Tony Stark said:
They were 3 points off . Other pollsters were closer and had obama ahead months before they even started polling.this year they are taking both sides by having Hillary ahead in one poll and trump in the other.
More...
 
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this is the electoral college map.
I was quite surprised to see hillary went from a win to undecided in the last week or so.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html


all of sudden the polls were inconclusive
can you say unskewing like mad in front of the election.

these were toss ups on Election Day morning...


Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
New Hampshire (4)
Maine CD2 (1)
Maine (2)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Georgia (16)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (6)
New Mexico (5)
Arizona (11)
Iowa (6)
 
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you want to see unskewing... look at the history of change October 30
17 of 19 moves in trumps direction.

crooked polls unskewing
or if you wish to be nice... herding.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html


RCP NATIONAL AVG.
11/6 Virginia Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 Georgia Leans Trump »»» Toss Up
11/4 Indiana Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/4 Maine Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 Maine CD1 Likely Clinton »»» Leans Clinton +1.6


11/4 Michigan Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 New Mexico Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/4 Virginia Toss Up »»» Leans Clinton
11/3 Louisiana Likely Trump »»» Safe Trump
11/3 Mississippi Likely Trump »»» Safe Trump
11/3 Texas Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/3 Utah Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/2 Georgia Toss Up »»» Leans Trump
11/2 Missouri Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
11/2 Pennsylvania Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/2 Virginia Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
11/1 New Hampshire Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
10/30 Colorado Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
10/30 Texas Toss Up »»» Leans Trump
 
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