The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Buy1Sell2 said:
Trend is what is important in reading polls. Poll are trending toward Donald Trump.
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When you're down in 7 of the last 9 polls the polls are not trending in your direction.



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todays polls ... averaged... equal trump in the lead in the margin for error.
does not matter how many polls... what matters is the quality of the poll and its ability to predict the turnout accurately.


General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 48 Trump +5
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 44, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 43, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Clinton +4
 
Tony Stark said:
The LA times poll is garbage and has a very different methodology than conventional polls.
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Neither one of us knows if it is garbage or not. It was right last time. Yes--the methodology is different. They interview the same 3000 people over time. Those 3000 people are trending in trumps direction but have been trending in Clintons direction at other times. Seems like it might be a good way to do polls (instead of finding new people each time), but the track record is not long enough yet.
 
The poll has some interesting demos. For example:4.3 % of blacks are favoring Trump.---40.2% of Latinos favoring Trump up from around 37% 2 weeks ago --and Women at 42.9% up from 38-39% 2weeks ago. The Latino and Women factor is higher than other polls but whether the raw number is correct or not, they are trending in Trumps direction. That cannot be argued. It can't be argued because it's the same 3000 person sample that is moving the numbers. So, what you can glean from polls is trend mostly. --and it's going the right direction --for now.
 
Seems to me that the methodology might be good using the same people over and over. I mean when you think about it, that's what an election basically is----The same group of people forming opinion over and over. Most polls get new folks each time and could get a good sample and a bad sample back to back. True--LA times could have a bad sample the entire time, but again it would still indicate proper trends. We'll see---I really don't know if the poll is fully accurate or not. The trend surely is though--Izzy
 
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