I don't believe any of that crap.
The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
Nates algo,which is better than his personal opinion, has it 67-32.
Hillary is ahead in EVERY RCP poll in Colorado,New Hampshire,Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.Not only is she ahead in every poll in those states her rcp average is highers than Obamas was in all those states a week before the election.
If the Cubs can do the impossible.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cubs-have-a-smaller-chance-of-winning-than-trump-does/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cubs-have-a-smaller-chance-of-winning-than-trump-does/
I guess you did not read the article. He ran simulations using stats to show how the national vote ties in to the electoral college.
His simulations show that if hillary wins by less than 2 percent of the national vote... trump probably wins.
He is hedging his bet because the polls were lying and they are herding hard the last few days.
If you add up todays polls and take an average its tied. That is the way its been the last 3 days.
It takes a few days for the average to match the current situation on the ground.
In other words the recent polls are a leading indicator and its swinging to trump.
His simulations show that if hillary wins by less than 2 percent of the national vote... trump probably wins.
He is hedging his bet because the polls were lying and they are herding hard the last few days.
If you add up todays polls and take an average its tied. That is the way its been the last 3 days.
It takes a few days for the average to match the current situation on the ground.
In other words the recent polls are a leading indicator and its swinging to trump.
No,I did not read the article.A month or two ago I stated my patience was running out with Silver due to having 3 different algos and his personal opinion on 1 election.I no longer read or listen to anything Silver has to say.I check in on his original algo because of its success in the past and as for as I know he hasn't changed it but I'm not interested in anything he has to say.
New Reuters/Ipsos poll.Hillary +6
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN12X2P6
Politics | Wed Nov 2, 2016 | 7:05pm EDT
Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, same as before FBI announcement: Reuters/Ipsos
By Chris Kahn | NEW YORK
Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump by 6 percentage points among likely voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released on Wednesday, the same advantage the Democratic presidential nominee held before an FBI announcement that reignited the controversy about her email practices.
The Oct. 28-Nov. 1 opinion poll was conducted almost entirely after FBI Director James Comey notified Congress last Friday his agency would examine newly discovered emails that might pertain to Clinton's use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.
Comey said he did not know whether the emails were significant and released no information other than that they existed. His announcement drew outrage from Democrats who voiced concern it would unfairly influence voters so close to next week's election. Trump and other Republicans seized on the news to revive questions about Clinton's credibility.
Among 1,772 people who have either voted already or were identified as likely voters in the Nov. 8 election, 45 percent said they supported Clinton, while 39 percent said they backed Trump. On Thursday, the day before Comey's announcement, Clinton led Trump by 43 percent to 37 percent.
In a four-way poll that included alternative party candidates, Clinton led Trump by 8 percentage points among likely voters. Forty-five percent supported Clinton, while 37 percent backed Trump. Five percent supported Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and 2 percent backed Jill Stein of the Green Party.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN12X2P6
Politics | Wed Nov 2, 2016 | 7:05pm EDT
Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, same as before FBI announcement: Reuters/Ipsos
By Chris Kahn | NEW YORK
Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump by 6 percentage points among likely voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released on Wednesday, the same advantage the Democratic presidential nominee held before an FBI announcement that reignited the controversy about her email practices.
The Oct. 28-Nov. 1 opinion poll was conducted almost entirely after FBI Director James Comey notified Congress last Friday his agency would examine newly discovered emails that might pertain to Clinton's use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.
Comey said he did not know whether the emails were significant and released no information other than that they existed. His announcement drew outrage from Democrats who voiced concern it would unfairly influence voters so close to next week's election. Trump and other Republicans seized on the news to revive questions about Clinton's credibility.
Among 1,772 people who have either voted already or were identified as likely voters in the Nov. 8 election, 45 percent said they supported Clinton, while 39 percent said they backed Trump. On Thursday, the day before Comey's announcement, Clinton led Trump by 43 percent to 37 percent.
In a four-way poll that included alternative party candidates, Clinton led Trump by 8 percentage points among likely voters. Forty-five percent supported Clinton, while 37 percent backed Trump. Five percent supported Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and 2 percent backed Jill Stein of the Green Party.