The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

[gwb-trading]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-latino-polling-firm-trump-190615552.html

Top Latino polling firm: Trump is headed for a historic, lopsided loss among the key group


October 6, 2016


A top Latino polling firm released a model on Thursday that projected Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would receive the largest portion of the Latino vote in recorded history in the upcoming November 8 election.

The model, from Latino Decisions, showed Clinton with a projected 82% of support among Latinos. Republican nominee Donald Trump received 15% support in the forecast, and third-party options garnered just 3%.

The spread would be greater than the previous widest differential, which occurred in the 1996 election. That year, former President Bill Clinton bested Republican nominee Bob Dole 72% to 21% among Latino voters. Records on Latino voting preferences stretches back to the 1980 election, according to Latino Decisions.

"We are highly confident that — barring any major unforeseen change — Trump's Latino vote will fall between 9.5% and 20.5%," Justin Gross, the chief statistician at Latino Decisions and assistant professor of political science at University of Massachusetts Amherst, said in a statement.

"Furthermore, support for third-party candidates seems to be lagging behind the electorate at large this election season, making it extremely likely that we will see Clinton’s share of the Latino vote surpass the 71% Obama earned in 2012 and the 72% Bill Clinton earned in 1996," he continued. "Today, our model estimates 82% vote for Clinton and we are highly confident that it will be somewhere between 76.5% and 87.5%."

The margin of error in the model is 5.5 percentage points.

Trump has come under fire along the campaign trail for comments he made when he launched his campaign about immigrants who came to the country illegally from Latin America, namely Mexico. In that speech, Trump said Mexico was sending "rapists" and other criminals across the border.

Trump has also championed building a massive wall along the US-Mexico border.

Looks like Trump has build himself a wall from the Latino vote.

 

[jem]

If you want to see a bullshit result... look at this sentence from your PRRI Polls website...

"Republicans and Democrats appear to be equally likely to support their party’s nominee. Nine in ten (90%) Democratic voters say they are supporting Clinton and roughly as many (86%) Republican voters say they are supporting Trump in November. Independent voters prefer Trump to Clinton by a substantial margin (44% vs. 36%, respectively). However, one in five independent voters report they would be supporting a third party candidate (16%) or expressed no preference in their vote choice (4%)."


So here again Trump is beating Hillary with independents by a larger margin.
So the only way Hillary got be leading a poll by that much is to massively oversample democrats.

Your polls are telling you that Independents are going to win this for Trump.
Why is the media not reporting this so you could cease being so willfully ignorant?

New RCP poll.PRRI/The Atlantic Hillary + 6

http://www.theatlantic.com/press-re...ong-white-working-class-likely-voters/503135/


New PRRI/The Atlantic Survey: Clinton Leads Trump Post-Debate Narrowly by 47-41, But Still Lags Among White Working Class Likely Voters

Results from newly released polling provides insights on voter sentiment along lines of geographic mobility, religion, age; report and full results online now

• 10:11 AM ET
• Press Releases

Washington, D.C. (October 6, 2016)—Hillary Clinton continues to hold a narrow line against Donald Trump, bolstered by a modest bump following the first presidential debate, according to a before-and-after PRRI/The Atlantic survey released Thursday. In the days following the debate, Clinton’s support among likely voters jumped four percentage points to 47 percent, the survey showed, while Trump’s support fell to 41 percent

 

[fhl]

If you want to see a bullshit result... look at this sentence from your PRRI Polls website...

"Republicans and Democrats appear to be equally likely to support their party’s nominee. Nine in ten (90%) Democratic voters say they are supporting Clinton and roughly as many (86%) Republican voters say they are supporting Trump in November. Independent voters prefer Trump to Clinton by a substantial margin (44% vs. 36%, respectively). However, one in five independent voters report they would be supporting a third party candidate (16%) or expressed no preference in their vote choice (4%)."


So here again Trump is beating Hillary with independents by a larger margin.
So the only way Hillary got be leading a poll by that much is to massively oversample democrats.

Your polls are telling you that Independents are going to win this for Trump.
Why is the media not reporting this so you could cease being so willfully ignorant?

Check out this one that just came out from quinnipiac, jem.
https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2386

They've got indies going for Trump by 46-32, and yet they tout clinton up by five points overall.

That was for a four man race, but even stranger, when they give the numbers for a two man race, they give Clinton a twenty point lead for the indies, even taking votes away from trump.
How exactly is Trump going to lose votes if it were a two man race instead of four?

 

[Tony Stark]

Why is the media not reporting this so you could cease being so willfully ignorant?

The willfully ignorant are the Rasmussen reports/skewed polls believers.

 

[jem]

Rasmussen had Hillary up today.

Answer one question... do you believe your polls when they tell you that Trump has a lead with independents of 8 to 14 points? Which about a 30 to 50 percent margin?

The willfully ignorant are the Rasmussen reports/skewed polls believers.

 

[jem]

that poll seems to be saying there was a massive shift in independents from their last poll to this one in Hillary's favor.

so now we are really seeing confused polls.

Check out this one that just came out from quinnipiac, jem.
https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2386

They've got indies going for Trump by 46-32, and yet they tout clinton up by five points overall.

That was for a four man race, but even stranger, when they give the numbers for a two man race, they give Clinton a twenty point lead for the indies, even taking votes away from trump.
How exactly is Trump going to lose votes if it were a two man race instead of four?

 

[Tony Stark]

New Quinnipiac poll.Hillary + 6


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/q-poll-clinton-expands-national-lead


Clinton Expands Her Lead Nationally Since First Debate, New Poll Shows

ByDanielle Keeton-Olsen

Published October 7, 2016, 12:40 PM EDT


Hillary Clinton expanded her lead over Donald Trump by five points since the first presidential debate, according to the latest national poll from Quinnipiac University.

The new poll puts Clinton ahead by six points, 50-44, among likely voters nationwide.

 

[Tony Stark]

Rasmussen had Hillary up today.

Answer one question... do you believe your polls when they tell you that Trump has a lead with independents of 8 to 14 points? Which about a 30 to 50 percent margin?

1.Of course they did

2.I pay no attention to that stuff,just their final results.

 

[fhl]

that poll seems to be saying there was a massive shift in independents from their last poll to this one in Hillary's favor.

so now we are really seeing confused polls.

The way i read that report was that they were both the latest poll. One with a four man and one with a two man.

 

[Tony Stark]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-latino-polling-firm-trump-190615552.html

Top Latino polling firm: Trump is headed for a historic, lopsided loss among the key group


October 6, 2016

I wonder if Trump really thought he could start his political career becoming the leader of a racist conspiracy theory against the first Black President and start his campaign calling Mexicans rapists and criminals and still get their vote

Being racist against Blacks and Hispanics will make you a darling in the Republican party but fortunately it no longer works in the general election.