The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

New Atlantic/PRRI poll.Hillary +11

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/10/prri-atlantic-poll-trump-plummets/503561/

Independents and Women Bail on Trump, Giving Clinton a Double-Digit Lead

The latest PRRI/The Atlantic poll shows Hillary Clinton building a double-digit advantage—after being locked in a dead heat two weeks ago.


With less than a month to go until Election Day, Donald Trump’s standing has plummeted with likely voters, falling from a dead heat just two weeks ago to a double-digit deficit behind Hillary Clinton, according to a PRRI/The Atlantic poll released Tuesday.

Clinton holds a 49-38 lead over the Republican. Two weeks ago, a previous PRRI/Atlantic poll found Trump and Clinton tied at 43-43. Following the first presidential debate in Hempstead, New York, the Democrat broke out to a 47-41 lead. She has now built on that lead.

That’s the bad news for Trump. The worse news is that this poll likely does not include the full impact of a video, published Friday afternoon by The Washington Post, in which Trump boasts about sexually assaulting women. The poll was conducted Wednesday through Sunday, meaning some respondents were interviewed before the video’s release and some afterward. It also does not take into account the second presidential debate, in which Trump’s performance drew widely varying reviews.

“At a time when Trump needs to be expanding his support, this new survey shows him faltering with independent voters and slipping further with women voters,” said Robert P. Jones, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute. “While white evangelical voters are mostly standing by their man, enthusiasm among his base supporters alone is certain to leave him short on Election Day.”
 
Since jem seems to longer want to give updates on the jem algo I will give it a shot. I think I know the jem algo pretty well and using the 4 way polls that the jem algo uses I am going to guess from the poll numbers below that the jem algo has Trump + 5.



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I am also going to guess that jem still thinks Trump will win.jem please correct me if I am wrong.
 
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/poll-analysis-trump-victory-impossible-170313181.html

Poll analysis: Trump victory all but impossible based on previous races

John W. Schoen,CNBC 6 hours ago

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With just 28 days left to the presidential election, this race will soon be decided. Based on the polling patterns in recent presidential campaigns, it may already be over.

Rocked by the release of taped remarks degrading women and battered by mass defections from his own party, Donald Trump is now suffering a drop in national public opinion polls as Hillary Clinton pulls ahead.

As of Tuesday, Clinton leads Trump by 6.5 percentage points, based on an average of national polls tracked by Real Clear Politics. That gap may be all but impossible to close by Nov. 8, when voters go to the polls.

At this point in the 2012 election, President Barack Obama lead rival Mitt Romney by just 0.7 of a point, but went on to win by 5 million votes and 332 of the 538 electoral votes. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry was within 1.6 points of then-President George W. Bush, who won with a 3 million vote lead and 286 of the 538 electoral votes.

This year's poll gap is more like the 2008 race between Sen. John McCain and Obama, who was up by 5.5 percentage points 28 days before the election. Obama went on to win by nearly 10 million votes and outpolled McCain's electoral vote count by more than 2 to 1.

As in past races, poll numbers tend to swing frequently early in a presidential race. But results from the last three presidential campaigns also show that that voter preferences tend to solidify once the election is less than 30 days away.

Trump's numbers surged after the Republican convention in July, briefly overtaking Clinton by about a percentage point. But the surge faded as the Democrats took the stage with their convention a week later. The Trump campaign narrowed Clinton's lead back to within the margin of error in late September. Both candidates picked up support earlier this month as undecided voters began committing themselves.

But the poll margin began widening on Oct. 3, days before the publication of Trump's taped comments about groping women.

Since then, the gap in poll results has widened markedly.
 
The poll clearly states its 41 Democrats 26 Republicans (with leans) and 12 Independent.

based on that Trump is winning. and he is still leading with independents enormously, 32 to 24.

Seriously... could a poll be more skewed? 41 to 26? it was far less skewed last time we checked.


If you break that poll down... the happy result may be that wikileaks may be killing hillary with independents because something is.





Tony Stark said:
New Rueters poll,Hillary +8.This poll was taken after pussygate and the debate trump supporters say he won.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN12B2PV
More...
 
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you do the math. I don't think trump is winning either... but that poll is dem plus 15. Obama won by 4. So that makes it skewed 11 points passed a reasonable template.

what can you say?
a. they think 63 percent more dems will vote than republicans? is that anywhere close to a reasonable assumption?

b. they now think far more dems will vote than they did the last poll they made last week?

c. or... you just admit it is massively skewed.

Tony Stark said:
OK.
More...
 
Even Deep Red Utah is in play,


Trump Faces Major Trouble In Deep Red Utah, New Poll Shows

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Donald Trump may be losing ground in Utah, according to a new poll that was conducted after the release of the tape in which the Republican presidential nominee boasts about sexually assaulting women.

The Y2 Analytics poll finds Trump tied with Democratic rival Hillary Clinton at 26 percent. Independent candidate Evan McMullin, who has been considered a long-shot candidate, trails close behind with 22 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson takes 14 percent in the poll.

Prior to the poll, Trump was averaging 45 percent and Clinton 27 percent in the largely Mormon state, according to the HuffPost Pollster aggregate of publicly released polls.

The last time Utah voted for a Democratic candidate was in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson won.

This is the first and so far only poll released in Utah that was conducted after the Access Hollywood tape surfaced, and thus should be taken with some caution.

But it could signify a real shift in the race. Earlier this week, Utah Republican leaders launched “an all-out revolt” against Trump, as one Brigham Young University professor called it. Several state officials, including Gov. Gary Herbert (R), rescinded their support for Trump, citing the crude video.

On Wednesday, The Salt Lake Tribune officially endorsed Clinton, calling her “the only candidate who comes close to being qualified and fit for the post.”

The HuffPost Pollster election forecast model predicts a 9 percent chance that Trump will win the presidential race and a 90.8 chance Clinton will.
 
I note the no response to the 41D 26R skew question. if hillary were really winning why would they skew 41- 26?
 
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