The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Huff Post most recent polls.Seems they leave out that ridiculous LA Times poll and I don't see the worst pollster of 2012 Rasmussen either.


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

image.jpg
 
now... reveal the ration of D vs R vs I for those polls.

arg... did not reveal
McClatchy plus 7 or 8 for Dems
NBC... always a crap poll

the only real poll is Reuters and it slanted to hillary too.
 
jem said:
now... reveal the ration of D vs R vs I for those polls.

arg... did not reveal
McClatchy plus 7 or 8 for Dems
NBC... always a crap poll

the only real poll is Reuters and it slanted to hillary too.
More...


The 2 polls you called best in 2012(the jem honest polls Rasmussen and Gallup) were the worst 2 RCP polls of the 2012 election having Romney ahead more than any other RCP polls.With all due respect I remain skeptical of your ability to tell good polls from bad ones.


Who are the jem honest polls for 2016?
 
Last edited:
1. polls that don't reveal their templates are crap polls
2. polls that slant more than Obama won by are crap polls - so if they tally more than 4 democrats they become increasing crappy skewed polls
3. polls that manipulate their internal samples are also crap polls. that is harder to detect.

honest polls use honest templates. Ones that match how voters voted 2 years ago or 4 years ago. Bases on the recent results I would say the honest templates are the ones for the 4 years both for Presidential elections and the off years.

Its pretty straight forward. There really is no good reason to argue with the logic of using the 4 year ago election results as your template. Sure things might e different in this election.. but no one really knows that ahead of time.

Now you could create models that take in other factors... like nates... polls plus. But if you calling winners based on other factors or changing factors let the readers know ahead of time. Don't say Trump has no chance, then say later oh whoops we did not follow polls or our models. (that shows a lack of credibility.)
 
Last edited:
jem said:
1. polls that don't reveal their templates are crap polls
2. polls that slant more than Obama won by are crap polls - so if they slant democrats by more than 4.
3. polls that manipulate their internal samples are also crap polls. that is harder to detect.

honest polls use honest templates. Ones that match how voters voted 2 years ago or 4 years ago.
More...


But most of the polls you call crap had Obama ahead in most of their polls in 2012.The polls you called honest had Romney ahead in most of their polls in 2012.I would think the polls that had Romney ahead in most of their polls in 2012 or the current polls that have Trump ahead while 7 others have Hillary ahead are the dishonest ones.

Who are the jem honest polls for 2016?
 
Hillary +4

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...4-breitbart-poll-clintons-lead-on-trump-grows

September 23, 2016, 01:37 pm
Breitbart poll shows Clinton extending lead over Trump

Donald Trump is trailing Hillary Clinton by 4 points, according to a poll done by an organization whose chairman is running Trump's campaign.

Clinton (D) has 44 percent support among likely voters nationally to Trump's 40 percent, according to a Breitbart News/Gravis Marketing survey released Friday.







Hillary + 2

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-race-narrows-doorstep-debates-poll/story?id=42313593


In all, 44 percent of likely voters say they’d vote for Trump if the election were today, numerically his best since spring. Forty-six percent prefer Clinton, unchanged from an ABC/Post poll early this month and virtually unchanged since June
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top