The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

[Tony Stark]

oh - look the Princeton election consortium says something similar.

http://election.princeton.edu/

It looks like the Presidential state-poll snapshot is heading for a near-tie. This should become evident in the PEC analysis by the time of the first debate. I believe this will be a temporary situation. It will take at least until after the first debate on September 26th to find out.

National polls currently show Clinton ahead by only 1.0 ± 0.6 % (median ± estimated SEM, 7 pollsters with at least some post-Phlegmghazi respondents). However, our state poll-based analysis moves more slowly. I expect the Meta-Margin to keep on moving toward Trump for at least a week as state poll medians catch up. To get an idea of where the PEC analysis will head in the next few days, see electoral-vote.com, whose main map displays the most recent single poll for each state and therefore is noisier than my calculation – but more up-to-the-moment.

I estimate that if we had up-to-date data in all states, in an election held today the Presidential outcome would be extremely close, approximately like the map below.

From your link



"If the election were today, it would be a nail-biter. But as Glenn Thrush at POLITICO points out, there are lots of ways for Clinton to recover."


The map on that page also has Hillary ahead.I think she will recover.She's at the low point of her campaign,a point when most other candidates would be down by 20,yet at her worst she is still beating Trump.

 

[Tony Stark]

how many of those electoral maps are polluted by old garbage polls.
It would be interesting to run up to date polls with good templates and likely voters.

The majority of the polls after pneumonia gate has Hillary ahead.

 

[Tony Stark]

Hillary is most likely losing outside the margin for error right now.

So for the week of 9-19,and the second week in a row the jem algo has Trump ahead.

The TS algo has Hillary ahead by +3.


So far 2 weekly jem algo's has Trump ahead and 2 weekly TS algo's has Hillary ahead.Looking forward to comparing The TS algo vs The Jem algo results in the end.

 

[jem]

you keep trying to bring the algo into it.
its not about predicting who is going to win the fricken election. right now if you unskew some of the major national polls trump looks to be winning.

But... the algo would need to be run on the state by state races to make any sort of prediction about who is winning now. And who is winning now may not be who is winning after the debates.


Why do you keep intentionally trying to annoy me.

 

[jem]

I just looked at the 4 way polls. at RCP.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Hillary's health event happened on 9/11.

so polls which started on 9/12 or later. Rasmuessen has Trump up by 2, CBS tie, Fox has Clinton by 1,
The 2 way polls started after 9/11 both have Trump in the lead.
Fox has him up by 1. La times up by 7.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

So I have no idea what you are talking about.
Hillary is in trouble any way you slice it since her event.

I imagine it will be tight til the debates.
Hillary is going to have to perform in the debates. She may pull a biden. She may have a seizure.

The majority of the polls after pneumonia gate has Hillary ahead.

 

[Tony Stark]

right now if you unskew some of the major national polls trump looks to be winning.

So the jem unskewer has Trump ahead for the week of 9-19,OK.We'll keep track of that one as well.

 

[Tony Stark]

I just looked at the 4 way polls. at RCP.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Hillary's health event happened on 9/11.

so polls which started on 9/12 or later. Rasmuessen has Trump up by 2, CBS tie, Fox has Clinton by 1,
The 2 way polls started after 9/11 both have Trump in the lead.
Fox has him up by 1. La times up by 7.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

So I have no idea what you are talking about.
Hillary is in trouble any way you slice it since her event.

I imagine it will be tight til the debates.
Hillary is going to have to perform in the debates. She may pull a biden. She may have a seizure.

I included polls that included 9-11.For instance the Quinnipiac poll is from 9-8 to 9-13 so it included polling from 9-11.

 

[Tony Stark]

you keep trying to bring the algo into it.

Why do you keep intentionally trying to annoy me.

This thread is about the algo,algo is even in the thread topic.

I don't know why you would be annoyed from me bringing up the algo in a thread you created about the algo.

 

[Tony Stark]

NBC poll Hillary +5

Hillary getting her footing back( pun intended)


http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/da...ns-momentum-against-donald-trump-poll-n650926

Hillary Clinton Regains Momentum Against Donald Trump: Poll
by Hannah Hartig, John Lapinski and Stephanie Psyllos

Clinton, Trump Rehash Stark Differences on ISIS Following Bombings 1:19
Back on the campaign trail after being diagnosed with pneumonia and a subsequent break from campaigning, Hillary Clinton plugged her leaking lead against Donald Trump, according to this week's NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll.

She now enjoys 50 percent support among likely voters and Trump has 45 percent support.

 

[Tony Stark]

In must win for Trump PA,Hillary leads by + 9.Poll taken after pneumonia gate.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-poll-20160917-story.html

New Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Clinton ahead in Pennsylvania



WASHINGTON — Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters as Republican Donald Trump continues to struggle among groups key to winning the state, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Saturday.

The survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, shows Clinton leading the presidential race here with support from 47 percent of likely voters who say they intend to vote for her or are leaning that way. Trump is at 38 percent, while 11 percent say they'd pick neither of the major-party choices, and 4 percent are not sure.

Clinton's lead narrows slightly to 8 percent when third-party candidates are included, with 40 percent for her, 32 percent for Trump, 14 percent for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and 5 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

READ: Muhlenberg College/Morning Call mid-September poll
A demographic breakdown shows Clinton holding a significant lead among women, college-educated voters, and those in the state's densely populated southeast.


Overall