The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Tony Stark said:
Height of his post convention bump.It still had Hillary ahead in 2 of his 3 models.


"However, in Silver's polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were — hovering around 80%."
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Guess which forecast he thought was most accurate of the three.
 
fhl said:
Guess which forecast he thought was most accurate of the three.
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On that particular day(right after Trumps convention with his convention bump) probably his "if the election were held today forecast".


Here's that forecast today.


all0rm.jpg
 
Tony Stark said:
On that particular day(right after Trumps convention with his convention bump) probably his "if the election were held today forecast".


Here's that forecast today.


all0rm.jpg
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Oh, I gotchya. A day when Trump is favored by Silver doesn't matter, but a day when Clinton is favored is important. Right? You should go into the polling business. You're as biased as they are.
 
I note on that ABC poll that had clinton up 5 that tony pasted up here.
I clicked on it because I just knew ABC would be another garbage poll added to the garbage rcp average.

here is the proof... skewed 8 points to the dems to get a 5 point lead.
So the algo shows that the race is actually about even and that presumes ABC did not use other methods of slanting the poll as well.

Here is a quote from the poll info...

Partisan divisions are 34-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, and 36-28-31 among likely voters.
 
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jem said:
I note on that ABC poll that had clinton up 5 that tony pasted up here.
I clicked on it because I just knew ABC would be another garbage poll added to the garbage rcp average.

here is the proof... skewed 8 points to the dems to get a 5 point lead.
So the algo shows that the race is actually about even and that presumes ABC did not use other methods of slanting the poll as well.

Here is a quote from the poll info...

Partisan divisions are 34-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, and 36-28-31 among likely voters.
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I'll note that the majority of ABC polls had Obama ahead in 08 and 2012 and they currently have Hillary ahead in the majority of their 2016 polls.
 
therefore they were slanted the majority of time but still picked the winner in a binary.
wow... you should do a survey or red green and bet on the winner of your survey.

your intentional stupidity on this subject is annoying.
you are ak 47 or you work for the same lying operation.

Tony Stark said:
I'll note that the majority of ABC polls had Obama ahead in 08 and 2012 and they currently have Hillary ahead in the majority of their 2016 polls.
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jem said:
she is only plus 2 in the 4 way poll and she is down from double digits a few weeks ago in this NBC garbage poll that does not even reveal its R vs D vs I ratio.
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NBC garbage? They had Obama ahead in the majority of their polls on 08 and 2012 while your beloved Rasmussen who had the D v R numbers you like had Romney ahead in the majority of theirs.
 
jem said:
therefore they were slanted the majority of time but still picked the winner in a binary.
wow... you should do a survey or red green and bet on the winner of your survey.

your intentional stupidity on this subject is annoying.
you are ak 47 or you work for the same lying operation.
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Thats right jem,the polls you consider garbage picks the eventual winner in the majority of their polls.The only stupidity I see is you not learning your lesson after believing the skewed polls BS in 2012.
 
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